New Brazil Election Polls Show Tied Presidential Race
Is momentum swinging to Bolsonaro or is Lula's rising approval the number that decides this race?
Above: Towels depicting Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in Brasília on Sept. 11, 2026. Image credit: Sergio Lima/AFP/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-government narrative
Lula still leads the first round and the runoff, and government approval is climbing even during the ugliest week of the campaign. Approval near 47% is the number that actually predicts reelection, and the challenger has stalled since August. Meanwhile, the opposition candidate has to explain documented Banco Master dealings, so the race is tilting back toward Lula.
Government-critical narrative
Momentum has clearly flipped toward Flávio Bolsonaro, who now leads in runoff scenarios across multiple polls and in states holding the largest share of the electorate, and a lead there is the ballgame. Panic inside Lula's Workers' Party, with emergency meetings and calls for a harder line, says everything about who is winning.
