Final Polls Show Lula, Bolsonaro Tied on Eve of Brazil Vote
The Facts
- A final round of polls released on Saturday shows Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a neck-and-neck race ahead of Sunday's presidential election. An Oct. 25 runoff is likely since neither is polling above the 50% of valid votes needed for an outright win.
- An Atlas survey of 4,945 voters found Lula ahead of Bolsonaro by three points in the first round (47% to 44% of valid votes) and leading in a runoff scenario (50.1% to 49.9%). The margin of error is plus or minus one percentage point.
- A Datafolha poll of 4,006 respondents suggests a similar outcome: Lula leads Bolsonaro by three points in the first round, 45% to 42% of valid votes, and also leads in a runoff scenario, 47% to 46% of total votes. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
Sources Split
LEFT
CENTER
RIGHT
+1
+2
+2
+1
ESTAB
CRIT
CENTER
PRO
ESTAB
The Spin
Pro-government narrative
Lula's ceiling stays higher than his rival's, and that number decides elections. Government approval climbing back to the magic 35% mark shows the recovery is real and voters are rewarding it. A first-round finish is within reach, and the momentum is clearly pointing one way.
Government-critical narrative
Support for smaller opposition candidates is drying up fast as useful-vote consolidation is accelerating behind Bolsonaro, the only conservative option to defeat Lula. That kind of late surge is exactly how a race gets closed out before it ever needs a second round. The arithmetic is lining up, and the opening is right there.
Narrative C
Nobody should be calling this one yet. It was a useful vote in the first round, and the potential runoff math tilts toward Bolsonaro since most supporters of minor candidates sit to the right, but Lula's Workers' Party has lost only one presidential election since 2002. Three weeks is plenty of time for a surprise or incumbency spending to flip everything.
