Brazil

Brazil Elections: Military

Is Brazil's military rightly returning to its constitutional role or has it lost its credibility after surrendering to Lula?

SEP 9·Updated SEP 24

Context

Above: Brazilian soldiers march during Independence Day parade in Rio de Janeiro on Sept. 7. Image credit: Fabio Teixeira/Anadolu/Getty Images

The Facts

Overview: Brazil's armed forces have a long history of intervening in domestic politics beyond suppressing revolts and maintaining order, repeatedly acting as the ultimate arbiter of political power. The military first seized power in the 1889 coup ending the monarchy, then intervened repeatedly: lieutenants revolted against oligarchic rule three times in the 1920s, creating the conditions for Getúlio Vargas to take over the country in 1930. A decade and a half later, the military helped end Vargas' Estado Novo regime.
Brown University
Duke University Press
Jovem Pan
The Tricontinental
Verfassungsblog
Return to Prominence: The military once again took over the country in 1964, ruling for two decades in which the country saw both armed anti-government insurgency and a state crackdown marked by alleged human rights abuses. They relinquished power to civilian leadership amid economic crisis and popular protests, remaining absent from top government positions and civilian politics from Brazil's 1985 transition to democracy until Jair Bolsonaro's election victory in 2018.
Bloomberg
Brasil Paralelo
El País
Foreign Policy
The Tricontinental
War on the Rocks
Post-2022 Election Fallout: Brazil's military suffered blows to its image across the political spectrum in the aftermath of the 2022 presidential election. Bolsonaro, himself a retired army captain, and dozens of his allies, including multiple high-ranking military officials, were sentenced to years in prison for a coup attempt related to alleged efforts to overturn Bolsonaro's election defeat. At the same time, Bolsonaro's supporters have accused the military of betrayal for how troops handled demonstrators camping outside the military's headquarters in Brasília.
Correio Braziliense
Folha de S. Paulo
Gazeta do Povo
Revista Fórum
Supremo Tribunal Federal
The Guardian
The Wall Street Journal
VEJA
Role in the 2026 Elections: The Brazilian armed forces will be deployed to several states on Election Day to provide logistical support, maintain order and ensure security during the electoral process, as the country's electoral court has approved eight requests from state electoral courts so far. The military presence will cover parts of the city of Rio de Janeiro and three other state capitals, in addition to hard-to-reach municipalities, border regions, Indigenous communities and riverside villages.
Agência Brasil
CNN Brasil
The Rio Times
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Candidates: Military officers will also appear on the ballot on Election Day, including 82 self-declared active-duty personnel. Combined with state military police officers and firefighters — constitutionally considered auxiliary and reserve components of the army — and other security forces personnel, the number of registered candidates with such backgrounds fell by more than one-third from 2022 to 2026, interrupting a rising trend that began in 2010. This decline outpaces an overall drop in the total number of candidates this cycle.
Estadão
Gazeta do Povo
O Globo
The Washington Post
UOL
Public Confidence: Opinion polls published in the run-up to the elections show wide variation in voters' trust in the armed forces. A Datafolha survey conducted in early March found 27% of Brazilians do not trust the armed forces, the highest figure in a series begun in 2012, while 26% expressed full trust, the lowest recorded, and an AtlasIntel poll in mid-March showed a net minus 33 for the army and armed forces. Meanwhile, a Quaest survey in August found a +42 net confidence rating in the military, down from a +61 rating in 2022.
AtlasIntel
Datafolha
Quaest

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

Brazil's Armed Forces have deliberately distanced themselves from electoral politics after years of politicization under Jair Bolsonaro. Commanders barred active-duty personnel from political activity on social media and worked quietly to reverse the militarization that marked election cycles in 2018 and 2022. This quiet discipline shows the military correctly returning to its constitutional mission.

O Globo

Narrative B

Military leadership has lost ground politically after bowing to leftist power instead of defending institutional integrity. When military leaders humiliate themselves before Lula, absurdly claiming communism doesn't exist in Brazil, the Armed Forces' credibility erodes. Indeed, the military has left patriots wondering who will defend the nation's institutions, as high-ranking officers prove they are merely career-focused bureaucrats.

Gazeta do Povo