Pro-Israel narrative

Al Jazeera has been glorifying Hamas and supporting anti-Israeli activities, including terrorism and incitement. Shutting it down is, therefore, justified on national security grounds. The network has promoted antisemitism and radical ideologies. It was necessary to pull it off air to counter its dangerous influence and propaganda.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Al Jazeera's shutting down curtails freedom of information, affecting viewers in Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, and global audiences. The network has provided crucial coverage of significant events. The network's Gaza journalists face huge risks under the new labeling as a supposed "threat" to Israeli national security.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 50K Palestinian civilian deaths in the Israel-Gaza conflict before July 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Despite his forced withdrawal from the race due to a jail sentence for corruption, Martinelli's popularity remains high. So an electorate that's used to its politicians having some tainted history backed the Martinelli-endorsed Mulino in hopes he can fix many of Panama's problems.

Narrative B

Mulino benefited from Martinelli's popularity, but whether Mulino can fulfill his promises and fix Panama's troubles remains to be seen considering the deep-rooted corruption that has hindered the country for years. But the people have spoken, so we'll find out soon if Mulino can deliver.

Narrative C

With Mulino in power, Panama and the US will maintain their strategic cooperation, putting an end to the increasing levels of migration via the Darien Gap. Controlling migratory flows in Panama is the first line of defense for resolving the US migration problem. Panama and the US have shared security interests, and Panama will benefit both economically and democratically from this alliance.

Narrative A

Despite the niceties and pomp surrounding the state visit, an enormous trade war is brewing behind the scenes. We can expect Macron to be tough on Xi — tightening the screws on him for China's support to Russia, as well as its damaging trade practices that are hurting the EU economy.

Narrative B

While there are major disagreements between France and China, if anyone is expecting frosty exchanges or a political bust-up, they are mistaken. China is a master of carefully crafted diplomacy and will seek to use this to serve its interests. Meanwhile, Macron can be expected to lay on the charm offensive for the world's second-biggest economy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 58% chance that Xi Jinping will continue leading China in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia is once again threatening the West with nuclear weapons. Putin did a similar thing when Britain said it would provide Ukraine with armor-piercing shells containing depleted uranium. This is the Kremlin's playbook for seeking to scare its enemies into obsequience.

Pro-Russia narrative

Despite Russia's warnings, the West continues to escalate the conflict by suggesting that NATO troops will be stationed in Ukraine, and by allowing it to strike in Russian territory — hundreds of miles from where the conflict is taking place. Russia had no choice but to respond to these Western provocations.

Nerd narrative

There is a 12% chance that there will be a global thermonuclear war by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Swinney, who has participated in Scottish politics for decades, knows how to play the game well. Instead of bashing anti-independence members of the Scottish parliament, Swinney has set out a cross-party agenda aimed at rejuvenating key sectors, including healthcare and schooling. Scotland has recently endured unnecessary political turmoil, and now it's time for Swinney to bring back normality.

Right narrative

Swinney's entire career is connected to Nicola Sturgeon's tainted legacy and also support for many unpopular gender and hate-speech policies that have led to the downfall of his party. The appointment of Swinney shows that the SNP hasn't learned from its mistakes and is incapable of providing the cure to Scotland's problems.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Scotland leaves the UK by Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

It would be logistically difficult to organize a large-scale event like a campus-wide commencement ceremony amidst the protests happening at Columbia University — especially since some of these protests have turned violent. Smaller-scale individual ceremonies that will take place off the main campus are a fair trade-off that will still allow students to be celebrated for their accomplishments while also accommodating security concerns.

Conservative narrative

A small minority of students have ruined it for everyone else. It's a shame that Columbia has canceled its campus-wide commencement ceremony. Many of these students have been looking forward to this day for years, especially since the majority of them were unable to have in-person graduation ceremonies during high school because of the COVID pandemic. Colleges must regain order on their campuses and not allow this anarchy to continue any longer.

Progressive narrative

The student protests are on the right side of history. This is a social movement pushing back against the atrocities in Gaza, urging divestment from companies enabling Israel's ruthless operations against Palestine, and the resulting crackdown by militarized police. This is not just a US issue anymore — this is now becoming an international movement of solidarity.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that an independent review will find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Qantas should've faced much stiffer penalties for lying to flyers, blaming COVID for its no-show, and dodging responsibility for its overloaded systems. If there's a silver lining here, it's the message this penalty — while not tough enough — will send to airlines worldwide about treating travelers well and the consequences of their actions if they don't.

Narrative B

Though its services were hampered by COVID, Qantas admitted its failure to promptly provide cancellation notifications and maintain its high standards. So Qantas is compensating wronged customers in addition to revamping its processes and improving its technology. This settlement restores Qantas’ status as a marquee carrier.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the next commercial supersonic flight occur by November, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

This is a small penalty for Trump's blatant flaunting of the gag order. Merchan may have to up the ante, and even consider jail time if Trump doesn't cease attempting to put his thumb on the scale of justice with insulting posts and accusatory statements about witnesses and other members of the court.

Pro-Trump narrative

It's absurd that Trump is being punished when people like Daniels and Cohen have been profiting off public interviews and their accusations about the former president. Trump has merely been reiterating his long-held, correct views about this case being a witch hunt against him, and his First Amendment rights have been taken away.

Nerd narrative

There's a 12% chance that Trump will testify at the hush money trial, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

As time passes, it's becoming apparent that the lab-leak theory had more legs than the greater world knew during the first year of the pandemic. Sadly, the theory was ignored over time because officials in other countries didn't want to be associated with Trump. Vital evidence may have been lost while prominent governments were turning a blind eye.

Pro-establishment narrative

Governments haven't ruled out the lab leak theory, they're just being cautious about touting it while the scientific community continues to work on this difficult puzzle. It would be irresponsible to do otherwise.

Nerd narrative

There is a 9% chance that at least two public health agencies will claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

It's taken a lot of work by representatives of several different countries to hammer out a deal that's the best outcome for both the hostages and the Palestinian people. Hamas has agreed to this three-part deal, and it would behoove Netanyahu to also accept it without a major attack on Rafah.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel must move ahead cautiously because so much about this deal is still unclear. Hamas has used deceptive tactics in the past to stall and gain time to prevent Israeli military actions, and it seems Hamas is attempting to insert last-minute clauses in an attempt to pressure Israel to accept a bad deal.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The most consistent obstacle in these negotiations continues to be Netanyahu and his far-right government. If he wasn't pursuing salvaging his political career — and if the Biden administration wasn't so weak geopolitically — perhaps thousands of lives could have been saved. Either way, it's now up to Israel to ensure the end of this brutal war.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that a shared power arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.