Anti-Iran narrative

Despite every US president in recent decades declaring it unacceptable for Iran to possess a nuclear bomb, Washington and the UN have recently turned a blind eye to how close Tehran is to developing nuclear weapons. While Iran has exaggerated its nuclear capabilities in the past, it now appears that no technological obstacle remains between Iran and a nuclear bomb. Given Tehran's recent regional aggression amid the Gaza war, this is a huge threat that demands decisive leadership.

Pro-Iran narrative

Despite corrupt international media making claims to the contrary, Iran continues to be in lockstep with the IAEA's wishes, as it pursues its goal of 20K megawatts of nuclear power by 2040. As Tehran works to produce a new energy source for its country, others are trying to paint it as an evil government hellbent on obtaining nuclear bombs. These smear tactics are putting the world at risk and should stop immediately.

Nerd narrative

There is a 51% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

After his unconstitutional power grab in 2021, Déby junior is now trying to legitimize his rule through these rigged elections. Not only was a prominent opposition leader killed in the run-up to the election, but there are also voices within Déby's own ethnic group that oppose him. Adding to this is his plan to sever his alliances with the West and pivot towards Russia and the United Arab Emirates. That Déby is set to win the sham elections, does not bode well for Chad's future.

Establishment-critical narrative

The mostly peaceful elections are of great significance not only for Chad since it is the first Sahel country to hold elections following a string of regional coups. 221 political parties and associations backed the candidacy of Déby, who pledged to promote fair, just, and efficient governance. That his government called on the US to cease its activities nationwide while approaching Russia proves that Déby is the right candidate to lead his country to a better future.

Nerd narrative

There is a 45% chance that Chad will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

China's cyberwarfare against the UK must be viewed as a hostile action and should be treated as such. Beijing has clearly demonstrated that it presents a fundamental risk to the UK, and this recent attack must result in a drastic policy shift. This reckless cyber behavior is utterly unacceptable.

Pro-China narrative

This is a deliberate and coordinated effort to tarnish China's reputation from beginning to end. The PRC was not involved in the hacking of the UK Ministry of Defence, and Beijing strongly rejects any unfounded allegations of cyberattacks driven by political motivations. This disinformation by the UK is unacceptable.

Nerd narrative

There is a 44% chance China will carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan's electricity infrastructure before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

After curtailing democracy in Russia by jailing his critics and removing all checks and balances on power, Putin's authoritarian grip on his country is the strongest it's ever been. The next six years promise to be no different than what's come before.

Pro-Russia narrative

After once again securing the backing of the Russian people, Putin continues to be motivated by his aim to keep strengthening the country and taking it forward. Putin is the best man to lead Russia and will continue doing so to the best of his powers.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of president of Russia by January 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The third phase of the world's largest election faced multiple challenges — including low turnout, hateful speeches, and allegations of bias against the Indian Election Commission. However, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) will challenge Modi's National Democratic Alliance (NDA) despite Modi's lead in opinion polls.

Narrative B

To achieve its target of 400 seats in the Lok Sabha, India's lower House, Modi's party has deployed strategic tactics, including leveraging celebrity candidates. Regional dynamics, electoral strategies, and voter demographics shape the unfolding political landscape in India's intricate election process. The BJP has a firm plan to win a supermajority.

Nerd narrative

There's a 99% chance that the BJP will form a government after the next Indian general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Following a decades-long advocation of progressive politics, Sanders' decision to seek reelection almost guarantees another six years representing Vermont. While many thought that November might have been the end of the politician's illustrious career, it's clear that there is too much at stake for the veteran to draw the curtains on his career.

Narrative B

Sanders' decision to run for reelection has unsurprisingly been met with much criticism. Irrespective of his influence on the left, age cannot be ignored. Sanders is but one of a long list of Washington elites who must accept their time is up and make way for a new generation of public officials.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that Cris Ericson will win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While frightening on the surface, this news is a boon to Alzheimer's researchers' efforts to find a cure. The identification of APOE4 as a singular cause of the disease in some individuals will unlock new treatments and spur research toward some of the most serious manifestations of the disease, such as early-onset Alzheimer's.

Narrative B

While this is promising research, we can't rely on genetics to solve the disease. Researchers are strongly warning people against APOE4 testing, as the fatalism could cause despair in patients. The scientific community should focus on proven, non-invasive lifestyle treatments, including diet and exercise.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that a vaccine for any major neurodegenerative disease will receive regulatory approval by April 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Hur's reports and testimony make it seem as though the only thing standing between Biden facing the same charges related to the handling of classified documents as former Pres. Donald Trump is the president's loss of faculties. The American people, who are concerned about the year-old's physical and mental health, deserve to hear how he sounded in his interviews with Hur.

Democratic narrative

Republicans who believe Trump is the victim of a witch hunt are now conducting their own political fishing exhibition in order to distort the president's condition. The DOJ has provided the House with transcripts, and handing over the audio would be superfluous. Upping the heat on Garland could set a dangerous precedent, and the House GOP is acting in bad faith here.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Biden will be impeached by the US House, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

This is a clear First Amendment violation. Without providing any evidence that TikTok is a national security threat, the government is attempting to restrict Americans' access to ideas, information, and media. This law must be overturned.

Pro-establishment narrative

The courts should continue being deferential to Congress when it comes to national security legislation. The public doesn't have the right to see all the classified evidence legislators are privy to, but considering a bipartisan group of lawmakers agrees on this matter, there must be a threat from TikTok.

Pro-China narrative

In a presidential election year, politicians from both sides of the US political aisle think they can score points by bashing China. Yet Biden and others continue to use TikTok. Politics is the only reasonable explanation for this law, and it should be overturned on its merits and because of the hypocrisy of US lawmakers.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand and must be remedied. Netanyahu must keep his promises, and the US has been clear regarding its position on Rafah.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has reached a decisive point in this conflict. If Israel gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to the nation's enemies that it's weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such weakness will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7., which is simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The most consistent obstacle in these negotiations has been Netanyahu and his far-right government. If Netanyahu wasn't hellbent on salvaging his political career and if the Biden admin. wasn't so weak, perhaps thousands of lives could have been saved. Either way, the ball is in Israel's court, and everything must be done to ensure the end of this brutal war on Gaza.

Nerd narrative

There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.