Narrative A

The company that built its brand on promoting free speech and debate has, through a secret arbitration hearing, shielded itself from having to engage in free speech and debate. They fired one of their most popular hosts over a disagreement on Israel, but they then publicly accepted the debate, and now they're legally muzzling Owens so she can't expose their fraudulent enterprise.

Narrative B

As Candace Owens has gained more notoriety, she's decided to use her platform to defend virulent antisemites like Kanye West, blame Israel for defending itself, and direct antisemitic dog whistles — such as 'Christ is King' — at Ben Shapiro when he calls her out online. Owens' career has been built on bullying racial and religious groups rather than thoughtful, intellectual commentary.

Narrative A

Afghanistan's Taliban government is committed to restoring the country's place as a major connectivity hub in Asia. By reaching an agreement with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the Taliban has secured key projects to improve transportation and trade in the entire region. This deal is just the beginning as Afghanistan moves to become the linchpin in a network that connects all parts of Asia leveraging its historical Silk Road ties.

Narrative B

Since seizing power three years ago, the Taliban has plunged Afghanistan into a diplomatic and economic disaster. As the international community withdraws foreign aid, the Taliban has taken aim at Afghani citizens and the country’s natural resources to generate revenue. By hiking taxes and depleting the country’s natural resources, the Taliban is inflicting more harm than good.

Nerd narrative

There's an 80% chance that Pakistan will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Dissatisfaction with Western influence in Africa has led to African states like Niger turning to new allies like Russia. There's a strong desire to eliminate neocolonial policies and thus diversify who African nations choose to cooperate with in a multipolar world. The Western nations' harsh reactions to such a tendency haven't helped either. This shift has reshaped alliances in the Sahel region, potentially impacting stability and counterterrorism efforts.

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's problematic assertive strategy in Africa, amidst the rising importance of the Global South, exposes challenges in governance and hints at great power competition on the continent. Russia's influence, which aims to reduce Western influence and promote authoritarian rule, signifies a larger strategy of exploiting conflicts for economic and political gains in the region. This underscores the need for a coordinated Western strategy and recognition of Africa's significance in a rules-based order.

Nerd narrative

There's a 70% chance that Niger will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Results show that, despite the Conservative Party's ineptitude, there is still hope for the survival of right-wing politics in the shape of Reform UK. While the Tories have collapsed, Reform's rise as the country's third largest party highlights an opportunity for the right to regroup and provide the UK with the change it thoroughly needs.

Left narrative

Local elections have once again confirmed Labour's dominant popular support. The rewards of Starmer's decision to shift his party closer to the political center are now on full display — a choice that seems destined to only further attract moderate voters as the Tories enter a right-wing civil war with Reform UK.

Nerd narrative

There's a 93% chance that Sir Keir Starmer will form and lead the first government after the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Unlike in the US, the encampments in Canada have been peaceful. That's why some universities have allowed them to remain and police have been hesitant to step in. Furthermore, both Palestinian and Jewish groups on campus are supporting these protests — a testament to their reasonable underpinnings and widespread support.

Narrative B

These camps aren't being built by innocent, pro-peace students, but rather the same radical anti-Israel groups that instigated pro-Hamas rallies following the Oct. 7 attack. It's no surprise that these antisemitic groups have barred anyone deemed a 'Zionist' from entering the encampment. They praised terror attacks in October and continue to espouse dangerous rhetoric today.

Establishment-critical narrative

Threats against the ICC are nothing new, dating back to when the Trump administration sanctioned Karim Khan and other ICC staff. The US, however, is not a member of the ICC and thus has no right to meddle in its business. The ICC does have jurisdiction over Gaza and East Jerusalem, so if it decides to take action against Israel's genocide, it will be justified in the eyes of all 124 ICC member states.

Pro-establishment narrative

The ICC is prosecuting Israel for defending itself against the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust, a defensive war in which Israel has bent over backward to ensure it limits civilian casualties and provides humanitarian aid. The ICC should drop this bad faith prosecution and focus on someone like Bashar al-Assad in Syria — who has killed over 500K of his people.

Nerd narrative

There is a 60% chance that the International Criminal Court will bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

TMTG is doing all it can through Securities and Exchange Commission filings and potential Congressional action to make sure retail investors who believe in the company don't get exploited by short sellers. By standing up for its investors, TMTG is maintaining the value worthy of anything related to a billionaire businessman who could be the next US president.

Anti-Trump narrative

TMTG is a meme stock and, as is the case with all meme stocks, there's never a rhyme or reason for their success or failure in the early going. In this case, Trump's notoriety could be affecting the stock price. But eventually, all meme stocks settle at a realistic price, and TMTG might not be able to overcome its poor business performance.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Trump's net worth in 2024 will be at least $2.4B, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

While Biden claims to be a practicing Catholic, he continues to support gender and abortion laws antithetical to the Church's teachings. So it makes sense that more and more true Catholics are distancing themselves from him and backing Trump, who would better represent their interests in the White House.

Democratic narrative

Ethnonationalism has unfortunately spread into some factions of the Church and Trumpism has filled a void left by past liberal-minded Church leaders. But that doesn't mean the old guard is gone. Pro-democracy Christians have an opportunity to stop this political religion in its tracks by backing Biden, who truly represents their values.

Nerd narrative

There's a 52% chance that Joe Biden will be reelected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

It's obvious these "protests" have gone too far in spreading terror and antisemitism now that the Houthis have endorsed these students' actions. You can't get more anti-America than the Iran-backed Houthis, and students should be ashamed to share anything in common with the group. While there is a role for peaceful protest, the Houthi's actions are a litmus test for what's really happening.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US is a self-proclaimed bastion of freedom, but its universities are egregiously suppressing students' freedom of expression. Unlike the US government, students aren't turning a blind eye to Israel's horrific actions in Gaza. Even if students don't want to travel to Yemen to attend school, Sana'a University supports their efforts. This is about solidarity on behalf of Palestinian suffering in Gaza.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Yemen will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by January 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Increasingly, severe rainstorms and flooding are being linked to global warming and climate change. Warmer weather allows air to retain more water vapor, which is why we must implement policies to cool the global temperature, to save lives and avoid billions of dollars in damage.

Narrative B

It's easy to dismiss extreme weather events as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.

Nerd narrative

There's a 95% chance that there will be at least 2˚C of global warming by Jan. 1, 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.