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The US-Venezuela Conflict

  • #Politics
  • #United States of America
  • #Venezuela
The US-Venezuela Conflict
context
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JUN 10
Above: Supporters of the Venezuelan government burn a makeshift U.S. flag during a rally against U.S. sanctions in Caracas, Venezuela on Aug. 10, 2019. Image copyright: Federico Parra/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
context last updated JUN 10

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Nicolás Maduro's Chavista regime has long spread propaganda and disinformation, both domestically and internationally, to whitewash its crimes. While this narrative has appealed to some anti-establishment voices on the left, even prominent left-leaning leaders have condemned Maduro as a tyrant rather than a legitimate head of state. Under his rule, Venezuela’s living conditions have collapsed, human rights have been systematically violated, and democratic institutions dismantled. It is the moral duty of all democratic and freedom-loving nations to help the opposition restore order, uphold the rule of law, and defend human rights.

Caracas ChroniclesEconomistEL PAÍS English

Establishment-critical narrative

Driven by its interest in controlling the Venezuelan people's vast oil wealth, the United States has long imposed sanctions and conducted a campaign of hybrid warfare against the Bolivarian Republic.These efforts aim to destabilize the country, incite social unrest, and overthrow the democratically elected government of Maduro. Yet the Venezuelan people — with the exception of a U.S.-backed reactionary minority — have largely resisted foreign interference and stand ready to fight a new war of independence if needed. If democracy in Venezuela is under threat, the United States and its allies are to blame.

EBBPeoples DispatchGuardianteleSUR English
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Cynical narrative

The U.S.-Venezuela conflict is less about democracy and human rights than it is about power, oil, and influence in the Western Hemisphere. Washington supports regime change when it serves its interests and condemns authoritarianism selectively, while Caracas blames every domestic failure on foreign plots to distract from internal dysfunction. Both governments have long used the conflict to consolidate support at home — one invoking freedom, the other sovereignty — while ordinary Venezuelans suffer under sanctions, mismanagement, and political theatrics. At its core, this is not a moral battle but a strategic stalemate dressed in ideological language.

Washington PostIdeasforpeace

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures

Nicolas Maduro

George W. Bush

Donald Trump

Hugo Chávez


Go Deeper

Rubio Says Maduro Is Not the President of Venezuela
Story
+12
2 days2 days
US Denies Visas to Venezuelan Youth Baseball Team
Story
+7
4 days4 days
Venezuela's Maduro Confirms Reports on Chevron's License Renewal
Story
+12
4 days4 days
US, El Salvador Complete Prisoner Swap With Venezuela
Story
+21
JUL 21JUL 21
Colombia's Petro Denounces Alleged 'US-Backed' Coup Plot
Story
+7
JUN 12JUN 12

Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

What Is Tren de Aragua?
New York TimesMAR 2
Trump envoy Richard Grenell secures freedom for 6 Americans following meeting with Maduro in Venezuela
FOX NewsJAN 30
The Strange Death of Hugo Chavez: an Interview with Eva Golinger
CounterPunchJUL 2016
Venezuela's economic collapse, by the numbers
AxiosAPR 30
Smoking Gun Analysis Finds US Sanctions Produce War Time Economy in Venezuela
GrayzoneJUL 2021
US support for regime change in Venezuela is a mistake | Mark Weisbrot
GuardianJUL 2017
The battle for Venezuela’s future
EconomistJUN 2024
Chavez claims assassination attempt foiled
NBCJUL 2006
Explainer - U.S. sanctions and Venezuela's exports and imports
ReutersAPR 30
Venezuela's 2023 oil exports rose, aided by US sanctions easing
ReutersAPR 30
Venezuela's 2024 oil exports climb 10.5% amid political turmoil
ReutersAPR 30
Venezuela's oil exports fall 11.5% over US tariffs and sanctions, shipping data say
ReutersAPR 30

More neutral establishment stance articles

How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a dictatorship on the brink of collapse
VoxJUL 2017