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Counting on Washington for intelligence in the current era is reckless. A country that can't read the Kremlin's intentions, or Washington's, is flying blind. Sovereignty means owning collection and analysis alike — human intelligence abroad, Arctic threat assessment and judgments made in Ottawa. Real money for spies and assessors is the price of being a consequential power.
Spying abroad takes a generation to pay off, costs hundreds of millions a year and guarantees nothing. The Kovrig and Spavor arrests in China showed how ugly the blowback gets. No vital question has been identified that only a recruited agent in Moscow could answer, and a modest agency could cover few targets anyway. Sharper all-source assessment buys more sovereignty than a CSIS spy mandate.
This is more political posturing than serious strategy, with Carney playing tough amid Trump-era tensions. The push for expanded CSIS spy powers, like the national security strategy more broadly, reads as a reaction to Washington rather than a clear-eyed, detailed assessment of Canada's security threats. A credible strategy would identify Beijing as a strategic threat and explain how Canada intends to address it.