India-China Resume Direct Flights After 5-Year Suspension
The Spin
Narrative A
The agreement between China and India is a step in the right direction following years of frozen relations between the two nations. This arrangement will resume direct flights and facilitate further people-to-people exchanges, which will contribute to the gradual normalization of Sino-Indian relations.
Narrative B
For India, abandoning the U.S. for closer ties with China would be a geostrategic error. Despite the détente, China remains economically and strategically committed to Pakistan, India's closest geopolitical adversary, and has a history of actively countering India’s economic goals and manufacturing industry. Instead of looking east, India should retain its western alliances.
Narrative C
This latest example of the growing rapprochement between India and China is a direct consequence of U.S. failed foreign policy. By insulting India and placing punitive tariffs on the country, the Trump administration has pushed what was a firm and important ally in the region into the arms of its biggest rival.
Metaculus Prediction
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