India Suspends Visas for Canadians as Row Escalates
On Thursday, India stopped issuing visas to Canadian citizens and asked Ottawa to reduce its diplomatic presence in New Delhi amid an escalating diplomatic row over the murder of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil.
Though it didn't provide any evidence, the Indian foreign ministry said Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has taken the decision due to "security threats" to its staff in its consulates in Canada that have "disrupted their normal functioning."
The suspension of visa services also applies to Canadians in a third country "because of Canadian diplomatic interference" in India's internal affairs. Canada's visa services remain open in India.
Narrative A
Canada's allegations are serious and unprecedented in the country's history. If it's true that India was involved in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil, then that gross violation of Canada's sovereignty must be met with swift and decisive action. Ottawa must get to the bottom of the matter, even if it means ruffling feathers in New Delhi.
Narrative B
It's shameful that Canada is accusing New Delhi of killing Nijjar on foreign soil. Although Nijjar was a terrorist involved in a conspiracy to kill a Hindu priest, that doesn't mean India was complicit in his death. Canada must stop levying baseless allegations that detract from the real threat of secessionists who threaten India's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90% chance that the right-wing incumbent BJP will win the 2024 national election in India, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: 5 Bulgarian Nationals Charged With Spying for Russia
The UK's Crown Prosecution Service revealed on Thursday that three men and two women suspected of spying for Russia will face charges of conspiracy to commit espionage.
The five Bulgarian nationals are due to appear for a first hearing at Westminster Magistrates' Court on Tuesday, where they will be charged with "conspiring to collect information intended to be directly or indirectly useful to an enemy."
Accused of offenses that took place between August 2020 and February 2023, the alleged spies – living in London and Norfolk – were identified as Orlin Roussev, 45; Bizer Dzhambazov, 41; Katrin Ivanova, 31; Ivan Stoyanov, 31; and Vanya Gaberova, 29.
Narrative A
The charges are another blow to Moscow's agent networks in Europe. Since hundreds of Russian spies were kicked out of their embassies across Europe following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has been deprived of its core agent infrastructure. To infiltrate Europe, the Russian regime must now take greater risks by relying on ordinary Russian citizens and foreigners. The case of the five Bulgarian nationals shows that Russian intelligence services are running out of human resources for their espionage activities.
Narrative B
This case may seem spectacular and show that the UK is cracking down on espionage, but it's worth taking a closer look. The unprofessional actions of the Bulgarian nationals indicate that they were by no means top agents of Russia's foreign intelligence service. The West has dealt several blows to Moscow's spy network in recent years, and the current case underscores the threat that Britain faces from within. However, with the West and Russia engaged in an undeclared war, espionage is more likely on the increase rather than on the decrease.
Sudan Army Chief Warns UN of Regional Conflict Spillover
In an address to the UN, Sudan's Army Chief and president of the Transitional Sovereign Council, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, warned that the civil war in his country could spill over into neighboring countries. He called on the international community to apply pressure on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) which he characterized as "terrorists."
Al-Burhan said the danger of war threatened "regional and international peace and security," as rebels had sought support from "outlaws and terrorist groups" in other countries. "This is like the spark of war, a war that will spill over to other countries in the region," he added.
General al-Burhan, who has been Sudan's de facto ruler since a coup in 2021, also alluded to the idea that the rival RSF has ties with the Russian mercenary group Wagner, which is subject to Western sanctions over alleged abuses in Africa.
Pro-establishment narrative
The United Nations was created for moments exactly like this. The Sudanese army, after extinguishing all other possibilities to stop this war, is now in desperate need of help to end the fighting by prosecuting to the fullest extent all factions engaged in terroristic behavior. The RSF's crimes and atrocities necessitate accountability.
Establishment-critical narrative
Sudan's problems, from extreme poverty and malnutrition to today's armed conflicts, stem not from warring factions who pop up out of nowhere but rather from Western meddling dating back a hundred years or more. Western governments so "kindly" offering humanitarian aid today are the same ones who toyed with Sudan for decades solely to steal its resources and combat China's rise in the region.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that more than 10K people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Govt Shutdown Looms as House GOP Blocks Spending Bill
According to an official at the US Office of Management and Budget, the White House on Friday began the process of telling federal agencies to prepare for a shutdown following House Republican opposition to its own defense bill. This process is standard practice seven days ahead of an anticipated shut-down date.
On Thursday, the US House of Representatives voted 216-212 against an $886B defense appropriations bill. Five Republicans joined Democrats in opposing the measures.
The House has subsequently canceled votes from Friday to Sunday, stating that "ample notice" will be given for its future schedule.
Democratic narrative
Republicans have brought the House, and potentially the entire federal government, to a standstill thanks to circus-like infighting and a blind inability to understand the bigger picture. McCarthy must either cut a deal with the Democrats or give in to the far-right of his party — inevitably undermining his own position regardless of the decision made.
Republican narrative
More than anything, the House must be protected from the influence of the Democratic Party. Republican dissidents most likely will place party principles first — pushing pressure onto the Democrats as the funding deadline looms ever closer. The reckless policies of the Biden Admin. and his Democratic allies have created this political moment and soaring American debt.
Ukraine Attacks Russia's Black Sea Fleet Headquarters
On Friday, the Russian defense ministry alleged that one serviceman was missing after Ukraine launched a missile attack on Russia's Black Sea fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol.
The Russian-administered governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, said no one was injured in the attack but did not provide additional details on any potential casualties. Though he said civilian infrastructure was not damaged, firefighters continue battling the blaze.
Earlier, Razvozhayev warned residents that "another attack may come." Though he later dropped the warning but urged locals to keep calm and avoid central Sevastopol due to ongoing "special measures."
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine is justified in attacking Russian ports, ships, and naval facilities on the Black Sea to weaken Moscow's war machine. Russia continues to launch missiles at Ukraine from its vessels in the Black Sea and has been threatening to block the Black Sea shipping routes that Ukraine has been using to export grain.
Pro-Russia narrative
Friday's incident will have no bearing on the overall direction of the conflict. However, there can be no justification for such terror attacks, which put innocent civilians' lives at risk. Crimea has always been integral to Russia; it's futile to think that Ukraine can seize it by attacking Sevastopol and the Black Sea fleet. The potential role of the West in this attack must also be probed.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula before Jan. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US, China Launch Economic Working Groups
On Friday, the US Treasury Department announced the creation of two new US-China working groups to open a line of communication concerning economic and financial matters between both nations.
The Economic Working Group and the Finance Working Group will both be led by the US Treasury Department, with China's Ministry of Finance leading alongside the department on the economic group and the People's Bank of China on the finance group.
Confirming the news, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV claimed that the two groups were to hold meetings on both a "regular and ad hoc basis" in order to "enhance communication."
Pro-establishment narrative
The creation of working groups between the US and China can only be viewed as a positive policy following the unsustainable pace of reciprocal countermeasures the two states have imposed upon one another in recent times. Given the need for clarity between China and the US, the attempted use of dialogue is relief amid the growing threat of confrontation.
Establishment-critical narrative
So far, despite enhanced dialogue, meetings between the US and China have rewarded little material gain for the world. China continues to evade the US' concerns over its behavior, and Washington skips around topics that may anger Beijing. Time and time again, it has been proven that, despite best intentions, dialogue between international powers simply isn't enough.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance of a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Seeks to Ban Medical Debt From Credit Reports
The Biden admin. announced Thursday that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is considering barring consumer credit companies from including medical debt and collection information on individuals' credit reports.
According to the CFPB, 20% of Americans have medical debt on their credit reports, which can affect their ability to obtain mortgages, loans, and credit cards. The agency also found that 58% of all third-party debt collection on consumer credit reports was for medical bills.
The CFPB also found that medical debt, which, according to a KFF Health News-NPR investigation, affects roughly 100M Americans, doesn't accurately predict a consumer's creditworthiness, unlike other forms of debt.
Narrative A
Medical debt, something no one deserves and often appears due to unforeseen accidents, shouldn't hinder people's ability to access financial services. If we want people to make money to repay their debt, then we shouldn't ruin the credit report that helps them grow financially in other aspects of their lives. Over 100M people are burdened by this debt crisis, so the government must step in to help this significant portion of the population.
Narrative B
While significant amounts of medical debt are certainly hurting some Americans, the fact of the matter is that such debt doesn't affect credit scores nearly as much as it used to. As medical debt is something financial agencies still use to assess prospective clients' creditworthiness, patients should make sure they make smart choices when assuming debt, such as not putting it on credit cards and reaching out to non-profit credit report organizations.
Harris to Lead First White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention
US Pres. Joe Biden on Thursday announced the formation of a new office of gun violence prevention, which will implement current laws and work with local officials to pass gun legislation at the state level.
Biden tapped VP Kamala Harris, a former prosecutor and California attorney general, to lead the office.
Biden issued a statement saying that absent action by Congress to enact popular gun regulations – including universal background checks and a ban on assault weapons – the new office will fill the void.
Democratic narrative
Biden has been an advocate for tighter gun laws for decades, and this is yet another step in the direction of making the country safer. Although it’s not an end-all, be-all solution, having a central point of coordination for passing and enforcing gun control policies will make a difference. Biden is fulfilling his campaign promises to a large swath of his base.
Republican narrative
Biden seemingly never misses an opportunity to attack the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding gun owners. From reinterpreting clear federal statutes to opening an entire office devoted to gun control, this administration consistently scoffs at the Constitution in order to cater to special interest groups over everyday citizens.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.405 small firearms per capita in the US in 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Asteroid Chunk Collected by NASA After Desert Landing
Completing its seven-year, four-billion-mile trek through space and back, NASA's OSIRIS-REx spacecraft landed in the desert of the US military's Utah Test and Training Range Sunday, carrying the largest soil sample ever collected from an asteroid.
The material from the 4.5B-year-old asteroid called Bennu, which was 200M miles away when the capsule made contact, is believed to contain dust and pebbles from the time our solar system first formed. It will also be the largest amount of space material brought home since the Apollo astronauts returned with moon rocks.
OSIRIS-REx first launched on a rocket called Atlas V from Cape Canaveral, Florida in 2016, taking more than two years to reach the roughly third-of-a-mile-wide asteroid. Once there, it spent another year mapping the space rock to find the best place to land.
Narrative A
While some will argue studying a bunch of space rocks is a waste of time and money, celestial missions like the OSIRIS-REx are necessary for understanding how the Earth formed and the potential risks of asteroids and meteorites colliding with Earth. Furthermore, the existence, or at least potential existence, of water has been found on space rocks like Bennu, which provides scientists with a puzzle piece in the quest to find extraterrestrial life. If we wish to understand our solar system and protect Earth from enormous flying rocks, we best not defund the only agency in search of such answers.
Narrative B
The fact isn't that NASA programs are useless, but when Congress first funded the planetary defense program almost 20 years ago, it didn't expect a 4,000% budget increase while allocating less than 1% of it to actually defending the Earth from incoming asteroids. NASA, along with the congressmen who see over the agency, must revert to its original promise to study planetary defense of interplanetary objects — otherwise, space exploration is simply a bottomless pit with no fiscal responsibility that the American people can't afford right now.
Nerd narrative
There is a 9.1% chance that a space elevator will successfully be built by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Philippines Mulls Legal Action Against PRC Over Coral Reefs
The Philippines is accusing China of destroying coral reefs located within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea and is considering legal action against Beijing.
The Philippines foreign ministry said Thursday that various agencies are examining the extent of the environmental damages at Iroquois Reef in the Spratly Islands. Solicitor General Menardo Guevara will guide any filings against China for Manila.
Manila is poised to bring its second case against Beijing concerning South China Sea disputes to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands. In 2016, the Court ruled in favor of the Philippines, but China didn’t acknowledge the ruling.
Anti-China narrative
In addition to ignoring international court rulings regarding disputed territories in the South China Sea, China is also destroying coral reefs located in the Philippines’ territory and creating devastating environmental damage. China acts with impunity as it completely disregards diplomacy and decency. The Philippines has every right to pursue legal action against Beijing for its reckless actions towards the marine ecosystem.
Pro-China narrative
The Philippines is spreading fabrications about the PRC to air its grievances over a territorial dispute in the South China Sea. Beijing isn't damaging any coral reefs, and if any country is harming the ecosystem of the Pacific, it's the Philippines with its host of illegal warships grounded in the ocean and rusting away. These are groundless accusations.