US Sen. Menendez Says He Won't Resign
On Monday, in his first public remarks since his Sept. 22 indictment, US Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) Menendez signaled that he intends to stay in office. This comes as New Jersey state leadership has called for Menendez to leave Congress altogether, with New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and most of the state's Democratic House delegation urging him to resign.
Menendez and his wife were indicted Friday in New York for allegedly accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes. They both deny the charges.
Menendez and his wife, Nadine, are accused of accepting cash, gold bars, home mortgage payments, and other bribes as part of a "corrupt relationship" that allegedly benefited Egypt.
Republican narrative
Menendez should be ashamed that he again finds himself being charged with corruption, and he should resign immediately. Any work he does will be tainted by the stain of corruption, and — although he’s innocent until proven guilty — Democrats' reluctance to challenge his actions raises questions.
Democratic narrative
No one ever wants to see a high-level official accused of corruption. But this case speaks against the accusations that the Dept. of Justice is being weaponized against conservatives. The DOJ — alongside the Democratic party — has done its due diligence in this case and in the previous one against the senator.
Russian State TV Promotes Tucker Carlson
An advertisement for a weekend show featuring former Fox News host Tucker Carlson was aired on Friday on Russian TV news channel Rossiya 24, reportedly the second such promo this month. The ads have prompted speculation about the program's content, and it's unclear whether the content would be re-airing Carlson's current programming on X, formerly Twitter, or original content.
Carlson denies any involvement with the ads for the show bearing his name, stating that he had never heard of Rossiya 24 before they aired and would never consider partnering with Russian state TV.
Despite the comments, Russian news agency Tass reported on Monday that, according to Carlson's statements to Swiss magazine Die Weltwoche, the TV host had looked to interview Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin but was obstructed by senior US officials.
Pro-establishment narrative
Even if a Russian version of Carlson's programming turns out to be a simple re-airing of his X content, it wouldn't be surprising if he joined Russian state TV at some point as he has consistently echoed Kremlin propaganda. As a prominent American journalist, his irresponsible pro-Russia comments have concerningly influenced the public debate at home while finding resonance abroad.
Establishment-critical narrative
Because the Western media establishment largely insists there's a patriotic duty to hate Putin unconditionally, it's no wonder the speculation surrounding his relationship with Russian media has come to harm Carlson's reputation. While the host has explicitly blamed the Russian leader for the conflict and its subsequent humanitarian catastrophes, he hasn't shied away from concerns ordinary Americans share about the cost of supporting Ukraine's war efforts.
Nerd narrative
There's an 18% chance that there will be a US-Russia war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Don't 'Play Games' With Ukraine, Pope Tells Western Nations
On Saturday, Pope Francis urged the West and its allies to stop playing with the "martyrdom" of the Ukrainian people in the nation's conflict with Russia, by initially deciding to provide Kyiv with weapons and subsequently considering withdrawing their support.
In an apparent reference to Poland, which recently announced it would stop sending weapons to Ukraine, Francis said: "I see now that some countries are moving backward... A process is starting in which the martyr certainly will be the Ukrainian people, and that is an ugly thing."
During a flight back to Rome following a two-day trip to Marseille, the pontiff also criticized arms dealers for exploiting the Russia-Ukraine war, stating: "The interests in this war are not just those related to the Ukrainian-Russian problem but to the sale of weapons, the commerce of weapons."
Pro-establishment narrative
After suggesting the war in Ukraine was a consequence of NATO "barking at Russia's gate" and subsequently offending Ukraine by invoking the enlightened Russian empire, the pope is now denigrating the weapons industry as a key driver of the "martyrdom" of Ukraine's people. Francis should take greater care before sharing his political opinion as, in his own words, the Catholic Church is "not a political organization."
Establishment-critical narrative
Pope Francis has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, made countless appeals to end the war, and repeatedly offered to mediate a peace process throughout the conflict. It's disappointing that the pontiff, who rightly calls out those producing weapons of war as merchants of death, is under fire for stating the truth — that the Ukrainians are paying the price for the greed of western nations and the actions of the arms industry.
Nerd narrative
There's a 36% chance that the next Russian leader will disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
France to Withdraw Troops From Niger
On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris will withdraw its soldiers from Niger by the end of the year following weeks of escalating tensions with the country's new military leaders.
In an interview with French television outlets, Macron said military cooperation with Niger was "over," adding that in addition to withdrawing its 1.5K troops, Paris also decided to immediately withdraw its ambassador and several diplomats from Niger.
In a statement, the Nigerien military government welcomed Macron's announcement as a new step toward the country's sovereignty and said that "imperialist and neo-colonialist forces are no longer welcome on our national territory."
Pro-establishment narrative
The withdrawal of French troops and Macron's announcement to recall the French ambassador from Niger is the right decision given the ungrateful and hostile attitude of the Nigerien junta. The power-hungry coup plotters toppled the elected president for implementing bold reforms, thereby threatening their influence. France has helped Sahel countries like Niger, often alone, to fight Islamist terrorism, and the withdrawal of French troops does not bode well for the future and stability of Niger and the entire region.
Establishment-critical narrative
Macron's announcement to withdraw French troops and the French ambassador from Niger is another major embarrassment for Paris. This is all the more true since Macron had previously announced that he would not give in to the military government's demand for the pullout of French troops and the French ambassador. The fact that Macron has now given in to the pressure is a victory for the Nigerien military government and underscores the fact that the "Françafrique" era is ultimately coming to an end.
Narrative C
While France's withdrawal signals Niger's break with the political status quo, another development points to economic continuity. For instance, Western mining companies — most notably the French company Orano — continue to operate in the country to mine Niger's valuable uranium deposits. Some even have expansion plans, and so far there is little to suggest that the Nigerien military government intends to stop the companies' activities. Niamey's break with the West is by no means as radical as it might seem at first glance.
Amazon Cements $4B Deal with AI Startup Anthropic
On Monday, Amazon announced its plan to invest up to $4B in AI startup Anthropic. Amazon will invest $1.25B immediately in the Claude chatbot maker with the option of investing the remainder later.
Amazon employees and cloud customers will gain early access to Anthropic’s technology, while the latter will work to develop technology for Amazon’s in-house Trainium and Inferentia chips.
Anthropic’s use of Amazon-designed semiconductors is designed to showcase the products as an alternative to ones made by companies like Nvidia.
Narrative A
Amazon’s groundbreaking $4B investment in Anthropic enhances the supply chain titan's position against Silicon Valley rivals like Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia. This move introduces more robust competition in the tech industry AI "arms race." The availability of more alternatives in AI-friendly chips is also welcome at such a crucial stage in the sector.
Narrative B
While this large-dollar deal is notable, Anthropic is entangled in multiple cloud infrastructures — Google and Amazon — making the dynamics between the three companies somewhat hazy. Anthropic leaders have insisted "nothing has changed" in its February deal with Google, so the impact of the Amazon deal on the AI boom remains to be seen.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Anthropic will enable users to identify AI-generate content before July 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hollywood Writers Reach Tentative Deal to End Strike
The long-running strike that's brought Hollywood to a standstill could soon be over after the Writers Guild of America announced on Sunday that a tentative deal has been reached with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers.
The Guild — representing over 11K writers in film and television — has been on strike for 145 days, demanding a fair share of the revenue from streaming services and protection from using artificial intelligence in their jobs.
In announcing the new three-year contract, which must be approved by its board and members before the strike ends, the Guild described the deal as "exceptional" with "meaningful gains and protections for writers."
Narrative A
The Hollywood strike, which had a terrible impact beyond the writers' and actors' lives, dragged on for nearly five months because of Hollywood studios' greed. However, the deal shows studios and streaming companies have finally acknowledged that the industry will be brought to a standstill if their profits and artificial intelligence take precedence over their creative talent.
Narrative B
Instead of holding the entertainment industry hostage over artificial intelligence and decimating local economies, Hollywood's writers and actors should have used the technology to supplement and improve their work. The unprecedented dual strikes could backfire and allow studios and streaming to eliminate the creatives from the artistic process for good.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that a top celebrity musician will accuse AI of unfairly mimicking their style before January 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Thousands of Ethnic Armenians Flee Nagorno-Karabakh
The leadership of the contested breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh announced on Sunday that the region's 120K Armenian inhabitants would leave the area after Azerbaijan launched a 24-hour-long offensive last week leading to the surrender of local forces.
Some 4,850 people have reportedly crossed into Armenia from the region as of Monday, and the Armenian government said it was preparing for thousands of refugees. Residents began leaving the territory's de facto capital on Sunday evening via the Lachin corridor toward the border with Armenia.
Meanwhile, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Sunday criticized his country's security agreements with Russia as "ineffective" after Moscow refused to intervene. Armenia is a member of the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) pledging mutual protection in the event of an attack.
Narrative A
Hundreds of years of Armenian history will soon be erased as Azerbaijan seeks to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh to its indigenous Armenian population. The world, yet again, is watching in silence as long-dispossessed people are pushed out of their homeland.
Narrative B
Azerbaijan has finally triumphed and reclaimed its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. The goals of this anti-terror operation were to simply dislodge Armenia's military presence in the region and ensure the return of refugees displaced by Armenia in the first war. If civilians choose to leave the region that is their choice, but Azerbaijan has done nothing to indicate that this is its intent, as it only seeks to live in harmony with its neighbors.
Spain: 40K Protest Possible Amnesty of Catalan Separatists
An estimated 40K Spaniards, particularly from the opposition conservative People's Party (PP), flooded the streets of Madrid Sunday to protest acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's plans to offer amnesty to Catalan separatists in order to keep himself in office after he failed to win July's election.
The People's Party, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, came in first in July's inconclusive general election, though the party fell well short of the majority needed to form a new government. Meanwhile, the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, led by Sánchez, will also lack the necessary votes unless it gains the support of the Catalans.
Among the separatist leaders Sánchez needs to pull to his side is exiled former Catalonia leader Carles Puigdemont, who is wanted in Spain for encouraging the region's secession in 2017. Puigdemont has demanded the charges against him be dropped as a condition for his support.
Right narrative
Acting Prime Minister Sánchez would rather collaborate with seditious traitors than work to build a government with the opposition party. Sánchez claims pardoning separatists would be forgiving "mistakes made in the past," but Puigdemont attempted to secede from the country just six years ago. Spaniards are tired of separatists and their socialist leanings, which is why citizens are rightfully speaking out against this proposed amnesty.
Left narrative
While some argue that separatists are traitors and should not receive amnesty, the fact is that they're still Spaniards and far less dangerous than the Vox party which refuses to condemn former dictator Francisco Franco. The People's Party Feijóo knows he can't win by popular support alone, so he's trying to push feelings of fear and anger against the Catalonians rather than work to include them in the body politic.
Calif. Gov. Signs LGBTQ+ Protection Bills
California Governor Gavin Newsom signed several bills Saturday aimed at enhancing the state's protections for LGBTQ+ people.
In a statement on the CA Gov. website, Newsom, a Democrat, said, "California is proud to have some of the most robust laws in the nation when it comes to protecting and supporting our LGBTQ+ community, and we’re committed to the ongoing work to create safer, more inclusive spaces for all Californians."
Much of the new legislation centers around supporting LGBTQ+ youth. One bill lays out schedules for required cultural competency training for teachers and staff at public schools, a second law creates an advisory task force to help evaluate and advocate for the needs of LGBTQ+ students, and a third law will require foster families to show they are willing to meet the needs of foster children regardless of gender and sexual orientation.
Democratic narrative
While states across the nation are passing anti-LGBTQ legislation, California is making a clear statement that hate and bigotry against the LGBTQ community will not be tolerated and that the state will continue to protect LGBTQ people, especially LGBTQ youth.
Republican narrative
While Newsom may have signed a slew of pro-LGBTQ laws on Saturday, it comes right after he bucked a number of progressive initiatives the day before. He's grandstanding on issues at the core of the Democratic Party — immigration and LGBTQ rights — and illustrating something Republicans have been saying for a long time the Democrats are going too far to the left.
New Poll Shows 10-Point Lead for Trump Over Biden
Former Pres. Donald Trump leads Pres. Joe Biden by 10 percentage points in a new Washington Post/ABC poll released Sunday. The large margin for the Republican frontrunner significantly differs from most other public polls
In a hypothetical November 2024 matchup, Trump — the frontrunner for the GOP nomination according to polling — has 51% support to Biden’s 42%. Biden’s job approval rating is 37% overall.
Meanwhile, 48% say they approve of the job Trump did while in office, with 49% saying they disapprove. Trump had a 38% approval rating when he left office in January 2021.
Democratic narrative
All signs are pointing toward a close race, so the idea that Biden might wind up losing by double digits is preposterous. Although a close race should be a warning sign to the incumbent president, remember that Biden was underestimated in 2020, and many thought Democrats would get trounced in the 2022 midterms. Throughout his career, Biden has been a triumphant underdog.
Republican narrative
The president’s approval rating has been dropping precipitously for months, so the fact that he might be behind Trump by 10 or more points at this stage shouldn't be a surprise. Results of other questions in this poll show that he’s failing as president. One has to wonder if Democrats might look for a different nominee.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 40% chance that Trump would win a 2024 presidential election matchup with Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.