Ukraine Attacks Russia's Black Sea Fleet Headquarters

Image copyright: Wikimedia Commons

The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Ukraine is justified in attacking Russian ports, ships, and naval facilities on the Black Sea to weaken Moscow's war machine. Russia continues to launch missiles at Ukraine from its vessels in the Black Sea and has been threatening to block the Black Sea shipping routes that Ukraine has been using to export grain.

Pro-Russia narrative

Friday's incident will have no bearing on the overall direction of the conflict. However, there can be no justification for such terror attacks, which put innocent civilians' lives at risk. Crimea has always been integral to Russia; it's futile to think that Ukraine can seize it by attacking Sevastopol and the Black Sea fleet. The potential role of the West in this attack must also be probed.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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