Iran Claims Ability to Produce Nuclear Bomb
On Sun., Kamal Kharrazi, a senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared that Iran has the technical ability to produce a nuclear bomb, but hasn't decided whether to do so.
He claimed that Iran was able to enrich uranium to up to 60% in a few days and that it would be easy to reach the 90% purity threshold suitable for a nuclear bomb.
Kharazzi, who is also a former foreign minister, added that Tehran had conducted extensive drills to be prepared in case Israel targets sensitive installations.
Establishment-critical narrative
While Iran has the technology needed to produce a nuclear bomb, Tehran remains committed to reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It's Washington's failure to guarantee it won't withdraw once again from this diplomatic solution that has been blocking the deal.
Pro-establishment narrative
Iran is making reckless claims out of desperation, fearing the US will support Israel and Saudi Arabia, and back out of efforts to restore Iranian nuclear talks. Although Tehran may be able to enrich uranium to military grade and in quantities to produce a bomb, it can't produce other essential parts for a nuclear weapon. This is just saber rattling.
Nerd narrative
There's a 48% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pence Breaks With Trump, Endorses Robson for Arizona Gov.
Former VP Mike Pence on Mon. endorsed real estate developer and Ariz. Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson in the GOP gubernatorial primary election, breaking with former Pres. Trump, who endorsed former TV anchor Kari Lake months ago.
The winner of the Aug. 2 GOP primary will likely face Democratic Sec. of State Katie Hobbs for the right to succeed GOP Gov. Doug Ducey, who is leaving office because of term limits.
Pence is scheduled to attend an event for Robson in Ariz. on Fri., the same day Trump is scheduled to do the same for Lake, who is known for her support of Trump's assertion that the 2020 election was stolen.
Pro-Trump narrative
"Real" Republicans might not always side with Trump, but Lake is the only true Republican in Arizona based on her brilliance, years of experience in the media, and her willingness to bring up important issues like election fraud. By contrast, Robson is a "Republican In Name Only" based on her ineffective record.
Republican narrative
Pence isn't the only one flexing his political muscles by opposing a Trump-endorsed candidate this year, but he's the rare figure with aspirations to run for president in 2024 who could go 0 against Trump in these races. Lake has plenty of issues working against her, including her six years as a registered Democrat.
Democratic narrative
Trump thought Lake was a shoo-in, but now she's running into a lot of intra-party resistance. The dissension within the GOP's ranks is an extremely welcome development for Democrats with the pivotal fall elections just months away.
Day 146 Roundup: Putin Meets Leaders of Turkey and Iran; Russia's Gazprom Declares 'Force Majeure'
In only his second trip abroad since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin visited Tehran on Tues. where he met with Iranian and Turkish counterparts Ebrahim Raisi and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The leaders discussed Ukraine and a UN-backed negotiation, brokered by Turkey, to restart the export of Ukrainian grain. Other issues facing the region, including the conflict in Syria, were also raised.
Meanwhile, China and the EU also held high-level talks on Tuesday. In a virtual meeting, Valdis Dombrovskis, executive vice pres. of the EU Commission, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He were expected to discuss Ukraine, China's alleged treatment of ethnic minority Muslims in Xinjiang and an unratified investment deal.
Elsewhere, Ukraine's first lady, Olena Zelenska, met with US Sec. of State Antony Blinken and head of the US Agency for International Development, Samantha Powers, in Washington on Monday. She met with Jill Biden at the White House on Tues. and is set to speak in the congressional auditorium at the Capitol to lawmakers on Wednesday.
Pro-establishment narrative
As the war shifts to the strategically important Donbas region of Donetsk, the US and its allies need to continue to do everything in their power to arm Ukraine with all the weapons they need. Doing so is the only way to push Putin's forces back as was done in Kyiv.
Pro-Russia narrative
As stated by Putin, the whole purpose of the war was never to invade Kyiv, but to liberate the ethnically Russian people of Donetsk and Luhansk, who have been subjected to systematic killing by Ukrainian forces for not recognizing the 2014 coup in Kyiv.
Nerd narrative
There is a 12% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Lawmakers Denounce Israel's Blacklisting of Palestinian NGOs
A group of 21 Congressional Democrats has urged the Biden admin. to publicly reject Israel's labelling of six Palestinian human rights organizations as "terrorist" groups associated with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP).
Israel first accused the NGOs of being associated with terrorism in Oct. 2021, after an earlier investigation by security agency Shin Bet alleged that they had raised and laundered money for the PFLP, as well as forged documents for them, recruited activists, and witnessed high-level meetings at their offices.
However, in a letter addressed to US Sec. of State Antony Blinken and Dir. of National Intelligence Avril Haines on Mon., the legislators said Israel lacked evidence against the organizations.
Pro-Palestine narrative
The attacks against the NGOs - one of which focuses on protecting Palestinian children from state-backed violence - is a cynical attempt to stifle Palestinian rights and dissent. Calling out Israel's flagrant disregard for international norms and human rights is the right thing to do.
Pro-Israel narrative
There's no question that these "NGOs" are related to terrorism. There is a clear connection between a number of Palestinian NGOs and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which has killed innocent Israeli civilians in recent years.
Scorching Heat, Fires Spread in W. Europe and Mediterranean
An extreme heat wave that has engulfed the UK is impacting other parts of Europe including Spain, Italy, and France. Temperatures in France were forecast to reach 40°C (104°F) on Tuesday.
A total of 1k combined fatalities have been blamed on the heat in Portugal and Spain.
In France, the extreme temperatures are fueling wildfires, as 15K people have been evacuated on the nation's western coast.
Narrative A
From Western Europe to across the Mediterranean region, thousands of people are dying from what is being described as an "apocalypse of heat," and an "avalanche of fire." Climate researchers tell us extreme events like these will happen more frequently and with more ferociousness. It's time to demand emergency climate action out of Europe's leaders.
Narrative B
Humanity has a long and enduring history of finding technological solutions to thrive in all climates. Hyper-alarmist policies on climate change are destructive and have put Europe in a bind both economically and geopolitically. Europe can't afford short-sighted "green" policies that produce less economic growth, less energy security, and less geopolitical stability.
Nerd narrative
There's a 24% chance that there will be 3.6°C of global warming by 2100 according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Announces Executive Actions on Climate Change
Pres. Biden on Wed. announced a set of executive actions after an attempt by Congress to pass major climate change legislation was blocked by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) last week. He stopped short, however, of declaring a formal climate emergency.
Biden said his administration will direct $2.3B to FEMA's resilient infrastructure program in fiscal 2022, expand the low-income energy assistance program to include cooling centers and energy-efficient air conditioners, and direct the Dept. of the Interior to propose wind energy zones in the Gulf of Mexico.
Biden is reportedly still considering declaring a national emergency, which would give the admin. greater powers and govt. resources to tackle climate change-related issues, including strengthening regulations and funding mitigation measures.
Left narrative
Ultimately declaring a climate emergency is just the sort of strong executive action that Biden has been promising. This would be a step in the right direction toward addressing the climate crisis, improving the American energy sector, and protecting American families from oil and gas price hikes.
Right narrative
While an important issue, claims about global warming are often grossly exaggerated. The apocalyptic rhetoric of a 'climate emergency' may do more harm than good by alienating people on both sides and distracting from more pressing issues.
Cynical narrative
Although executive action on climate change will answer calls from progressives to act against the climate crisis, Biden is limited in his ability to enact meaningful change. Even if he does announce a national climate emergency, it should be taken with a grain of salt.
Nerd narrative
There's a 23% chance that there will be 3.6°C of global warming by 2100 according to the Metaculus prediction community.
EU Launches Membership Talks With Albania, North Macedonia
On Tues., the EU officially opened accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia, the first step on a long road to full membership for the two nations.
This comes days after North Macedonia's parliament approved a deal resolving disputes with Bulgaria, which had blocked any breakthrough in talks since 2020, accusing Skopje of disrespecting shared cultural, linguistic, and historic ties.
North Macedonia was granted EU candidate status in 2005, but Greece had objected to its membership over claims to the name "Macedonia," which prompted the switch to the name "North Macedonia."
Establishment-critical narrative
After changing its name to please the Greeks, North Macedonia has been forced by the EU to kowtow to shameful Bulgarian demands. Now, Skopje must choose between protecting its identity and history or giving them up to enter the European bloc.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is a historic day for Albania and North Macedonia, which have shown they deserve to be part of the bloc after working hard to create mechanisms to tackle corruption and protect civil rights. Under the rotating presidency of France, the EU has correctly acted to remove internal opposition to their accession.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that a West Balkan state will next join the EU by July 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
West Virginia Judge Blocks Abortion Ban
On Mon., a West Virginia state judge granted Women's Health Center of W. Va. a preliminary injunction against an abortion ban that makes performing or obtaining an abortion a felony punishable by 10 years in prison, except if the mother's life is at risk.
The clinic ceased all abortion services on Jun. 24, the same day SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade and gave states license to regulate abortion.
In its lawsuit, the clinic argued that the old law was void because it hadn't been enforced for more than 50 years and has since been superseded by more modern laws.
Right narrative
Pro-abortion groups can file as many lawsuits as they want, and lower-court judges can put holds on these bans, but these restrictions were all legally voted on and implemented by their states' respective legislatures under the caveat that they would take effect if Roe was overturned. It's now the duty of state officials to enforce them.
Left narrative
Although the decision to overturn Roe gave the power over abortion to the states, many of these trigger bans and abortion restrictions violate state constitutions and infringe on women's rights to bodily autonomy. It's absolutely necessary for judges to step in and block these cruel bans.
Biden Signs Executive Order on Wrongful Detentions Abroad
Biden on Tues. signed an executive order (EO) authorizing sanctions on nations that wrongfully detain Americans, as well as providing greater transparency to families of detainees.
The State Dept. will add a "D" indicator to its travel risk advisory to warn of wrongful detentions, joining the "K" indicator that warns of kidnapping and hostage-taking by non-state actors.
Starting Tues., the "D" indicator will be issued for China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Russia, and Venezuela. China is estimated to be detaining 200 Americans and holding "exit bans" on even more.
Establishment-critical narrative
This EO shows the hypocrisy of Biden and the State Dept. when it comes to which countries they'll punish. Clear proof of this is that Saudi Arabia – a country the US relies on for oil that also has Americans detained – has been left off the list of countries receiving the new "D" risk label. If Biden wanted to punish all dictatorships, he would have included the Saudi Kingdom.
Pro-establishment narrative
Although it's only an incremental step, this EO is a necessary way for the US to push back against those countries behind the growing problem of US nationals being detained abroad. It rightfully sets up systems to punish nations and individuals complicit in detentions, and it formalizes coordination between agencies that work to communicate with families and bring detainees safely home.
Somalia: US Airstrike Kills Two al-Shabab Members
A US airstrike on Sun. is said to have killed two members of the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabab in Somalia. The attack was reportedly the first major US military operation in the country since Pres. Biden reinstated troops in May.
According to US Africa Command (AFRICOM), the attack was carried out in coordination with the Somali government in response to an Al-Shabab attack on "partner forces."
While AFRICOM said that no civilians were injured or killed, human rights activists accused the US military of a lack of transparency in its Somalia operations.
Pro-establishment narrative
The US conducted this strike alongside its regional ally Somalia to combat terrorists that are actively trying to overthrow a democratically-elected government. As shown by the lack of civilian casualties, the US takes minimizing non-combatant deaths seriously and is working in tandem with Somali partners to ensure the safety of their civilian population.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US has been bombing Somalian soil for three decades now, and what good has come from Washington's intervention in this vulnerable East African state? Any "national security" threat posed by Somali militants has been the result of US meddling, and it's time America stopped fighting there completely.
Charges Dropped Against Colbert Staffers Arrested at Capitol
The US Attorney's Office for Washington, DC announced Mon. it will not prosecute nine staff members from "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" over their June 16 arrest for unlawful entry in a hallway of the Longworth House Office Building at the US Capitol.
The group was on the sixth floor, which was closed to the public, and was unescorted and without a Congressional ID. Federal prosecutors said they wouldn't move forward with the misdemeanor charges because it would be too difficult to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the staffers were intentionally present without their escort.
Capitol police said they warned the group several times to stay with their escort, but the group did not listen to instructions.
Pro-Trump narrative
Here it is, yet another double standard of the justice system. While patriots are being prosecuted for entering the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, these left-leaning media agitators are off the hook for the same violation.
Left narrative
It's unfathomable that some are trying to compare peaceful staffers from a comedy show to the insurrectionists from the Jan. 6 attack. Colbert's people were invited into the building, and their only crime was accidentally being left alone without an escort.
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