US Military: Planning Underway for Pelosi's Potential Taiwan Visit
US officials have said that if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) visits Taiwan, the military would increase its movements of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region, including using fighter jets, ships, and other military assets to safeguard her flight to Taiwan and any ground time spent on the island.
It's not abnormal for senior leaders traveling overseas to have additional safety measures in place, but officials say that Pelosi would receive more security than usual. If her trip is confirmed, Pelosi would be the highest-ranking US official to visit Taiwan in 25 years.
An earlier plan to visit Taiwan in April was canceled when Pelosi tested positive for COVID. The State Dept. says that she hasn't officially announced any travel plans and that the US approach to relations with Taiwan remains unchanged.
Pro-China narrative
If Pelosi's visit to Taiwan eventually happens, it would not be a miscalculation but an intentional provocation by the US. The US does not formally have any diplomatic relations with Taipei, but they do have formal diplomatic relations with China, and a visit to Taiwan would contradict the One China Policy and threaten PRC sovereignty.
Anti-China narrative
As a global champion of democracy and human rights, it is only right that the US should support Taiwan and its democratic government. Any tension or military conflict caused by a visit by Speaker Pelosi to the island would be an outlandish escalation on China's part.
Nerd narrative
There is a 16% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US House Passes Same-Sex Marriage Bill
On Tues., the US House passed a bill to protect same-sex and interracial marriage after the recent SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe v. Wade cast concerns over other cases.
The Defense of Marriage Act, signed in 1996 by then-Pres. Bill Clinton, defined marriage as between a man and a woman.
SCOTUS amended this definition in their ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges, which prohibited states from banning same-sex marriage. The House is now pushing to codify this amendment into law with the Respect for Marriage Act.
Republican narrative
The attempt to pass these bills is nothing but a political charade ahead of the midterm elections. Rather than pushing to protect rights that aren't endangered, we should be focusing on more pressing issues that the US is currently facing.
Democratic narrative
SCOTUS is filled with extremists and it's up to Congress to codify the fundamental rights that all Americans deserve, including reproductive rights and the freedom to marry whomever you love.
Day 147 Roundup: Putin Alleges Ukrainian Violation of Preliminary Peace Deal; Progress Made on Grain Export Talks
In a televised news conference, following a summit in Tehran with the leaders of Iran and Turkey, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin said Ukraine had shown no desire to fulfil the terms of a preliminary peace deal agreed in March. There was no immediate response from the Ukrainian government to Putin's remarks.
At the summit, Putin saw staunch support from Iran, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei commenting that the West opposes an "independent and strong Russia". Khamenei also said that, had the country not sent troops into Ukraine, the Western alliance "would have waged a war" to return Crimea back to Kyiv's control after it was annexed by Russia in 2014.
Meanwhile Turkey, whose leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made Putin wait for nearly a minute before attending a joint press conference, struggled with a more strained diplomatic relationship with Russia during the summit. Aside from having sold lethal drones to Ukraine, Turkey was also on opposing sides to the Kremlin in conflicts in Syria and Libya.
Pro-establishment narrative
Putin's trip to Iran shows how isolated Russia has become in the wake of this unprovoked, war of aggression. Iran is one of very few places left in the world Putin can receive public statements of support for his "special military operation," having ostracized much of the globe with an unjustified invasion on European soil. No wonder Russia is fast approaching pariah status in the West.
Pro-Russia narrative
Pres. Putin knows and has publicly commented that Russia cannot seek an isolationist foreign policy in today's interconnected world. As the West has refused to engage diplomatically with the Kremlin – instead imposing sanctions on Russia – the nation will continue to turn to partners outside the Western sphere of influence who value a more equitable distribution of power across the globe.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Sri Lanka: Ranil Wickremesinghe Elected New President Amid Political Crisis
Sri Lanka's parliament on Wed. elected Ranil Wickremesinghe as the country's new president. He succeeds Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who resigned last week amid mass protests over the country's deep economic and political crisis.
In the secret ballot, Wickremesinghe defeated his main rival and opposition-backed Dullas Alahapperuma of the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna Party (SLPP) by 134 to 82. He also beat the leader of the leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Anura Kumara Dissanayaka.
Wickremesinghe, who was appointed acting president after his close political ally Rajapaksa fled the country, and is due to serve the remainder of the deposed PM's term, which ends Nov. 2024.
Establishment-critical narrative
Sri Lankans are fed up with a system of corruption and the abuse of power continually carried out by an entrenched political elite. As a servant of US imperialism and the IMF, Wickremesinghe is yet another member of the political classes to have worked against the public's interests. It's not enough to simply replace the country's political leadership in undemocratic elections - all 225 MPs should vacate their posts to allow for a real new beginning.
Pro-establishment narrative
It's too short-sighted to hold Sri Lanka's political system solely responsible for the country's economic catastrophe. The situation in Sri Lanka is indicative of global turmoil that is becoming more widespread as a result of the food, fuel, and financial crisis triggered by COVID and now the Ukraine war. Financial institutions like the IMF can and should play a positive role in international strategy to help resolve the situation across the world.
Democrat Reps Protesting Abortion Rights Arrested Outside SCOTUS
On Tues., 17 lawmakers were arrested outside the Supreme Court while participating in an abortion rights demonstration, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives have been vocal since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, calling on pro-choice advocates to take to the streets to protest and accusing the Democratic party of having a weak strategy for combating GOP abortion laws.
The demonstrators marched from the US Capitol Building to the Supreme Court, where they remained in the street to demonstrate, with law enforcement warning them to disperse or risk arrest.
Left narrative
The US cannot call itself a democracy if women are being denied their basic reproductive rights. Democrats need to continue protesting and pursue codifying abortion as a nationally-protected, basic human right.
Right narrative
AOC and her far-left allies staged nothing more than an entertaining publicity stunt. They pretended to be handcuffed while pumping their fists into the air as they were led to a shaded area to hydrate and be processed. Once again, the left's symbolism over substance is on full display.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Casey-era abortion rights - which upheld Roe v. Wade in 1992 - will be granted in at least 57% of US states by May 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Murder Charges Dropped for Bodega Clerk
On Tues., charges against a bodega worker who fatally stabbed a man earlier this month were dropped by the Manhattan District Attorney's Office - and formally dismissed by a judge - after his defense team argued he acted in self-defense.
Jose Alba had been charged with second-degree murder after stabbing 35-year-old Austin Simon on July 1.
The incident allegedly started when Alba took a snack away from the daughter of Simon's girlfriend after her payment was declined. Simon allegedly demanded an apology from Alba.
Narrative A
It's about time Bragg, who has rarely acquiesced to public pressure, made the right decision. While this George Soros-backed liberal prosecutor has been in office enacting his soft-on-crime policies, homicides and shootings have soared in NYC, and business owners have the right to defend themselves.
Narrative B
These cases are never as cut-and-dry as some in the public or media make them out to be - even when there's surveillance video. A man died and the least the prosecutor's office owed him was an investigation, which it pulled off quickly. Bragg was right to take his time in the face of a difficult decision.
UK: Sunak and Truss to Battle for Tory Leadership
Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss will battle for the support of Conservative Party members after Penny Mordaunt was eliminated from the race to be the next UK PM on Wednesday.
Mordaunt - who was knocked out with 105 votes against Truss's 113 and Sunak's 137 - has reportedly pushed for party unity since the ballot, saying "we go forward together."
The results were announced on the same day Boris Johnson, who is acting as a caretaker PM until a new leader is selected, faced his last Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs). Former PM Theresa May didn't applaud Johnson's final appearance in the chamber, while Sunak was absent from the session.
Left narrative
The Tories' much famed 'leveling-up' agenda is conspicuously absent from the current leadership contest. There is a jarring dissonance between the rise in child poverty and the focus on tax cuts and economic reform promised by all prime ministerial candidates. The Conservatives must do more to reduce inequality.
Right narrative
Truss is likely to at least start out with significantly more grassroots support than Sunak, not only because of her relative loyalty to Johnson but because of her commitment to rapidly cutting taxes. Sunak's pledge to keep taxation and public spending high is too much of an ideological diversion from true Conservative politics.
Establishment-critical narrative
Although the electorate in the final round of voting will be much larger than the 357 Tory MPs entitled to decide on potential candidates so far, it's in no way representative of the UK. As of 2017, 71% of party members were men and their average age was 57. They were also much more likely to live in London and the South of England than in other parts of the nation. The competition is not a truly democratic process.
Nerd narrative
There's a 60% chance that Liz Truss will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump-Backed Candidate Wins Maryland GOP Gov. Nomination
Maryland state legislator Dan Cox, who was endorsed by former Pres. Trump. won the GOP primary in the state's governor's race on Tuesday.
Cox, who will face a to-be-determined Democrat in the general election, defeated Kelly Schulz, a former member of Gov. Larry Hogan's cabinet, 56.2% to 40.3% with 80% of the vote counted. Hogan, who was limited by law to two terms and has been a vocal critic of Trump, had endorsed Schulz.
Cox joins state senators Darren Bailey (IL) and Doug Mastriano (PA) as GOP candidates who've promoted Trump's assertion that the 2020 election was stolen and have since gone on to win his state's nomination for governor.
Pro-Trump narrative
The Trump endorsement continues to be the lucky talisman for GOP candidates, and the former president seemingly has the upper hand in the battle for the soul of the Republican party. He's now 10 nationwide, with a perfect record in 22 states. Conservatives in Maryland want a governor in the mold of Trump rather than an ineffective RINO like Hogan.
Democratic narrative
In a state that voted by a margin of 1 against Trump in 2020, this isn't a victory for the former president; it's one for the Democrats. Republicans had a chance to go with a pragmatic centrist and went with the cult of personality instead – and they'll regret that decision come November.
Docs: Trump Tried to Use Census Citizenship for Political Gain
The US House oversight committee on Wed. released documents showing that former Pres. Trump tried to add a citizenship question to the census to allegedly affect the assignment of congressional seats and the electoral college.
The documents, gathered from internal communications and memos between political appointees at the Commerce and Justice depts., stem from a multi-year committee investigation previously delayed by the Trump admin.
Former Trump Commerce Sec., Wilbur Ross, reportedly pushed to add the question despite knowing its potential illegality, with commerce officials leaving out key details in a 2017 draft memo.
Pro-Trump narrative
The Trump admin. never violated any laws in seeking to add the citizenship question to the census. Even the SCOTUS ruling said Congress had the constitutional power to ask for such information and only disagreed with the Voting Rights Act piece. The government needs to know who is a citizen because that's who elected officials are tasked with protecting first and foremost.
Democratic narrative
The congressional committee and the Supreme Court have pushed back the Trump admin's brazen actions for good reason. Adding a citizenship question to the census clearly discriminates against minorities and foreign-born residents - groups that Republicans wish to attack because they overwhelmingly vote for Democrats.
Nerd narrative
There is a 66% chance that Republicans will win both the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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