12 May 2022
Daily Newsletter
Report: Earth Has 50% Chance of Breaching 1.5°C Threshold by 2026
The Facts
The world has a 50-50 chance of exceeding an average global temperature of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2026, according to a new UN report released Tuesday.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments agreed to try to limit warming to 1.5°C above baseline, with an absolute cap of 2°C. Exceeding 1.5°C could result in potentially irreversible climate tipping points, such as the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet, the IPCC has warned.
The report said there's a 93% chance that the world will set a record for the hottest year by the end of 2026, and that the five years from 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest on record. The researchers also predicted the megadrought in the US southwest will continue.
The Spin
Narrative A
We have a climate emergency, and this report is yet another wake-up call. We must move away from fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy immediately if we are to be able to stay below 1.5°C. Failure to do so will mean confronting tipping points harmful for the entire Earth much faster than expected.
Narrative B
While alarming, accurate long-term predictions are difficult to make, and the numbers here are slightly higher than previous predictions by NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Besides, 1.5°C of warming is only a 30 year average, and is by no means irreversible. There's still plenty of time to take action.
Narrative C
Climate and environmental disasters have been predicted by modern-day doomsayers for decades. None of the apocalyptic predictions have come true so far; why would this time be any different?
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that there will be 3.6°C of global warming by 2100 according to the Metaculus prediction community.
House Passes Resolution Allowing Staffers to Unionize
The Facts
The House of Representatives passed a resolution on Tues. allowing its staffers to unionize - a major development for labor activists who have pushed for the option for years.
The 217-202 vote followed an announcement from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that aides would receive a guaranteed minimum salary of $45K in response to the concerns of staffers.
Dems. passed several resolutions on that day, this bill being the final step in their effort to protect staffers willing to unionize as allowed by the 1995 Congressional Accountability Act.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
This huge win for congressional organizers will give staff legal protection from retaliation against labor organization efforts for the first time in the history of the House. Previously, they would have faced the possibility of being fired or blacklisted - now the balance of power on working conditions has been justly shifted.
Republican narrative
These changes are unnecessary and messy. The high turnover in offices is likely to weaken this bill's effectiveness and some staffers are already prevented by law from collectively bargaining as it could damage their autonomy. There is also a real prospect that this effort could be reversed if the Dems. lose control of the House in the midterms.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that less than 14% of Americans will be represented by a labor union in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Indicts Haitian Gang Leader Over Kidnapping
The Facts
The U.S. Dept. of Justice on Tues. announced the indictment of a Haitian gang leader for his alleged involvement in the kidnapping of a group of Christian missionaries last year.
16 Americans and one Canadian - including five children and one infant - were abducted on Oct. 16, 2021 while returning from an orphanage east of Port-au-Prince. Their Haitian driver was also kidnapped.
Joly Germine, known as Yonyon, is a leader of the 400 Mawozo gang responsible for the kidnapping. He was extradited to the US last week to face unrelated weapons trafficking charges after being held by the Haitian National Police since 2018.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The indictment of a leader of one of the most prominent and dangerous Haitian gangs demonstrates the relentless effort of the US to protect its citizens abroad, and hold criminals like Germine accountable. This is a win for the Justice Department.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite its considerable influence, the US has yet to mount a concerted, diplomatic push to address the mayhem in Haiti that has resulted from the absence of a legitimate government. While Germine's indictment is a positive step, it's no substitute for vigorous US policy.
Chicago Violence: More Than 20 Shot in 24 Hours
The Facts
Between Tues. and Wed., Chicago suffered three mass shootings in under 24 hrs that saw more than 20 people shot.
One of these shootings, reportedly between two rival gangs, left one person dead and four others injured.
In the volatile incident, police officers were met with resistance by the public and gang members as they attempted to administer first aid to the victims, according to the Chicago PD.
The Spin
Right narrative
Gang-related violence has become an almost immutable feature of life in Chicago - a fact that can only be blamed on Mayor Lightfoot's failed leadership and disastrous Democratic policies. There needs to be a concerted effort to crack down on the ongoing culture of permissiveness and prosecute gang members who commit crimes.
Left narrative
Gun violence is not wholly driven by wars between gangs, and murder and mayhem aren't unique to Chicago or even Democrat-led cities. Systemic policies such as hyper-segregated neighborhoods, poverty, and widespread access to guns have created ripe conditions for violence. We need to focus on changing the conditions that drive good people to do bad things.
Day 78 Roundup: Finland Announces NATO Bid, Ukraine to Launch War Crimes Trials
The Facts
Finland announced its intention to join NATO on Thurs., bringing the Nordic country which shares a border with Russia a step closer to joining the military alliance. Russia's foreign ministry said Moscow may find itself forced to take "reciprocal steps" to address these "threats to national security."
Sweden is reportedly expected to follow in declaring its intention to join NATO shortly, according to diplomats. UK PM Boris Johnson traveled to both countries on Wed. to sign mutual security agreements.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova announced on Wed. that she is preparing to bring the first war crime allegations to trial. Upwards of 10.7K allegations of war crimes are under investigation.
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking their promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 55% chance that Vladimir Putin will be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Denies Supporting Taiwan Independence Amid Rising Tensions with China
The Facts
US govt. officials denied on Wed. that Washington's stance toward Taiwan has changed, after facing criticism from Beijing over a State Department fact sheet that was updated last week to no longer explicitly state that it considers the island part of China.
This comes after China's military said on Wed. that it had tracked and warned a US guided-missile cruiser in the Taiwan Strait, accusing the White House of showing support for "Taiwan secessionist forces."
The USS Port Royal warship sailed through the waterway separating the island from mainland China, marking the second such transit in two weeks and the fifth so far this year.
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
The US' traditional strategy of ambiguity with regard to Taipei must be reformed in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Washington must stand for freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in the Pacific.
Pro-China narrative
The US is playing political games. Regardless, even if Washington were to abandon its commitment to the one-China policy, the declining nation has long since lacked the leverage to intimidate China.
Nerd narrative
There is a 7% chance that there will be a military conflict between the PRC (China) and ROC (Taiwan) before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Appeals Court Reinstates DeSantis's Congressional Map
The Facts
On Fri., a Florida appeals court reinstated the congressional map Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law last month, clearing the way for the contentious new district boundaries to take effect for now.
Earlier this month, Judge J. Layne Smith, a DeSantis appointee to the 2nd Circuit Court of FL, said he had intended to issue an order granting an injunction that would prevent a new congressional map championed by the governor from taking effect. Smith said that the map was likely unconstitutional as it diminished African American representation.
The order would have replaced DeSantis's map with one of two that the FL Legislature included in a bill and sent in Mar. to DeSantis. DeSantis confirmed he will appeal the ruling, and the FL Supreme Court will probably ultimately decide the case.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
This map shamefully strips African American voters of fair representation, as well as limits opportunities for African American politicians. Florida Republicans are furthering racist agendas through blatant gerrymandering.
Republican narrative
DeSantis's congressional map follows the state's Fair Districts criteria, federal law, and the US Constitution. The ruling against it was not made on any legitimate legal grounds, and, thankfully, Florida's congressional map has been upheld on appeal.
Cynical narrative
Both Democrats and Republicans rely on gerrymandering to win, making American democracy far from fair. Election laws need to change.
North Korea COVID Cases Fluctuate as Restrictions Relax and Kim Praises Vaccines
The Facts
Following official media reports of a potential relaxation of restrictions in North Korea's "fever" outbreak - widely believed to be COVID - cases rose to over 100K/day Sun. following a brief lull to 89.5K daily cases reported Saturday.
Total official infections reported are greater than 3.55M, with 70 fatalities.
On Mon., S. Korea's unification ministry stated that N. Korea's COVID situation "has been improving and stabilized outwardly," yet there was still uncertainty regarding data and the North's internal dynamics. It was also reported that residents in Pyongyang are allowed to leave their homes and that businesses and facilities are restarting operations.
The Spin
Narrative A
This is a potential humanitarian catastrophe for North Korea and the entire world. The hermetic nation shunned vaccines and international engagement to battle the pandemic, and its population is now vulnerable to the ravages of the rapidly-spreading Omicron variant. Concerningly, this makes North Korea a potential ground zero for new variants that could ultimately affect the globe.
Narrative B
The world has the tools to handle COVID now. Vaccines and boosters are great, but Omicron is mild and spreading too quickly to be stopped. We should aim for natural herd immunity and vaccinate only the vulnerable. Resistance is futile.
Trump Org. Sells Lease on DC Hotel for Reported $375M
The Facts
The Trump Org., the privately held real estate firm controlled by former Pres. Trump and his family, has closed on the sale of its DC hotel to a Miami-based investor group for a reported $375M.
The Trump International Hotel, located in DC's landmark Old Post Office Building, was a popular gathering spot for Trump supporters during his term in office, but it was also a source of controversy.
Critics charged that the sitting president operating a hotel just blocks from the WH constituted a conflict of interest, as those seeking to court influence with the admin. could potentially direct money to him and his family by purchasing rooms and services there.
The Spin
Left narrative
Trump's DC hotel was a sinkhole of corruption, yet somehow - despite Trump's best efforts to unlawfully profit from the presidency - it was also a money-loser. Now the disgraced former president has managed to sell the lease for far above market prices. It's a good thing that Congress is investigating the matter.
Pro-Trump narrative
The Trump Org. rescued a blighted DC landmark, saving it from demolition and turning it into an architectural gem. Now it's time to bid farewell. Despite years of political harassment, the group has found new investors willing to pay top dollar for their chance to own a piece of DC history.
Arizona Executes Prisoner, Ending 8 Year Hiatus
The Facts
Convicted Arizona murderer, Clarence Dixon, was put to death on Wed., ending a nearly eight-year pause in the state's use of capital punishment.
Dixon was convicted for the 1978 murder of Arizona State University student Deana Bowdoin. The case remained unsolved until 2008 when DNA technology linked him to the murder. He was already serving a life sentence for sexual assault.
Dixon declined the option of execution by gas chamber - after Arizona refurbished its chamber in late 2020 - and died by lethal injection at the state prison in Florence, marking the sixth execution in the US in 2022.
The Spin
Left narrative
While Dixon was by no means innocent, he was a vulnerable schizophrenic who couldn't even grasp the reason for his execution. Capital punishment is purportedly about delivering justice and upholding the law, but, in reality, it's an unspoken scale where some lives matter more than others.
Right narrative
Although the judge found that Dixon suffered from schizophrenia, he also found him to have been rational and competent enough to understand the severity of his abhorrent crime. Capital punishment brings closure to families and friends of victims like Bowdoin and ensures real justice is achieved.
