World

Report: Earth Has 50% Chance of Breaching 1.5°C Threshold by 2026

MAY 10 2022·Updated JAN 2 2023

Story

Image credit: AP [via NBC News]

The Facts

The world has a 50-50 chance of exceeding an average global temperature of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2026, according to a new UN report released Tuesday.
NBC
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments agreed to try to limit warming to 1.5°C above baseline, with an absolute cap of 2°C. Exceeding 1.5°C could result in potentially irreversible climate tipping points, such as the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet, the IPCC has warned.
DW
The report said there's a 93% chance that the world will set a record for the hottest year by the end of 2026, and that the five years from 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest on record. The researchers also predicted the megadrought in the US southwest will continue.
NBC
Meteorologists will not actually be able to tell if Earth hits the +1.5°C mark for some time after each year, as a period of record of 20-30 years is used to determine the deviation.
Politico
According to the IPCC, warming cannot be limited to 1.5°C unless emissions peak by 2025 and there are net-zero CO2 emissions globally by the early 2050s. At the current rate, the IPCC states that global warming will exceed 2°C above baseline.
DW

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

We have a climate emergency, and this report is yet another wake-up call. We must move away from fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy immediately if we are to be able to stay below 1.5°C. Failure to do so will mean confronting tipping points harmful for the entire Earth much faster than expected.

RTL Today

Narrative B

While alarming, accurate long-term predictions are difficult to make, and the numbers here are slightly higher than previous predictions by NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Besides, 1.5°C of warming is only a 20-30 year average, and is by no means irreversible. There's still plenty of time to take action.

NPR

Narrative C

Climate and environmental disasters have been predicted by modern-day doomsayers for decades. None of the apocalyptic predictions have come true so far; why would this time be any different?

Competitive Enterprise Institute