11 May 2022
Daily Newsletter
Hollywood Lawyer Paid Off Over $2M of Hunter Biden's Delinquent Taxes
The Facts
Hollywood lawyer Kevin Morris reportedly paid over $2M to cover Pres. Joe Biden's son Hunter's overdue taxes.
Morris is best known for crafting the $550M licensing deal for the creators of South Park, as well as being a co-producer for 'Book of Mormon.'
However, it's been confirmed that he's now leading a legal and media strategy for Hunter Biden and is reportedly investigating how a copy of his infamous laptop entered public domain.
The Spin
Right narrative
The mess Hunter Biden finds himself in can be linked back directly to the President himself. Evidence from the laptop suggests that Joe Biden played a role in his family's corrupt dealings at least 11 times, and experienced federal prosecutors must now consider whether Hunter, his brother James, and even the Pres. himself, should be indicted by a federal grand jury.
Left narrative
The Justice Dept. already concluded that Hunter Biden settled his tax bill. While right-wing conspiracy theorists and media outlets are doggedly attempting to prove that Biden gave political favors to his son (as former Pres. Trump did for his children), prosecutors would find it very difficult to convict Hunter of any tax-related crime.
Establishment-critical narrative
The suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop scandal reflects one of the greatest Information Operations in American reporting history. Voters were deprived of knowledge concerning Hunter Biden's dubious dealings with oligarchs and adversaries that may have compromised the now President. The corporate media and Big Tech conspired together to amplify a politically beneficial narrative before Joe Biden was elected.
Nerd narrative
There is a 45% chance that Hunter Biden will be indicted before Nov. 5, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Public Inquiry Launched into Death of Black Man in Scottish Police Custody
The Facts
Protestors chanting "black lives matter" gathered outside Capitol House in Edinburgh earlier this week, where a public inquiry into the death of a black man while in police custody in Scotland began on Tuesday.
Sheku Bayoh, 31, died in May 2015, after authorities responded to reports of a man wielding a knife.
According to police statements, Bayoh was no longer in possession of the knife when officers arrived, but he failed to obey instructions to get down on the ground and violently attacked an officer. However, evidence obtained by the BBC programme Panorama suggests these accounts may have been false.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Police Scotland has long been working to establish a reformed system. While enormously challenging, progress has been made and will continue. The true test of reform is whether operational failings are subjected to critical review, as is being done with Bayoh's case.
Establishment-critical narrative
Sheku Bayoh is Scotland's George Floyd but without justice. His family had to fight for this inquiry due to police and Crown Office incompetence, dishonesty, and racism. The real test is whether the country will act to ensure that true change takes place in an unaccountable, all-powerful justice system.
UK Foreign Minister Set to Scrap Parts of Northern Ireland Protocol
The Facts
British Foreign Sec. Liz Truss has reportedly given up on negotiations with the EU, and plans to scrap large parts of the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol, as its terms risk eroding the Good Friday Agreement, a political settlement that facilitates peace and stability in the nation.
Although she said she'd sought a "negotiated solution," the results of last Thursday's NI Stormont elections has put further pressure on the diplomatic and trade situation between the island of Ireland and the EU.
Although nationalist party Sinn Féin, which supports the protocol, won the largest vote share, the second largest party (the Democratic Unionist Party) is refusing to form an executive until its skepticisms over the protocol are addressed. Consequently, a new government cannot be formed in the NI assembly until the protocol is revised.
The Spin
Left narrative
Truss' moves are leadership feather-fluttering. Her risky plans have rightly prompted prominent frontbenchers like Sunak and Gove to object; her irresponsible and high stakes strategy evokes the prospect of a trade war while the UK economy stands on the brink of recession.
Right narrative
Reports of schisms within the Conservative Party are exaggerated. Although Gove and Sunak favor negotiation over unilateral action on the NI protocol, they've also sought to involve themselves in the process rather than necessarily understand it. The elections have increased the urgency for resolution - ensuring stability through the establishment of an accountable executive in NI must be the priority.
Nerd narrative
There is a 38% chance that Northern Ireland will hold a reunification referendum before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 77 Roundup: Russian Troops Driven Back in Kharkiv, Ukraine to Halt Transit Route of Russian Gas
The Facts
Ukrainian counter-offensives in the northeastern region of Kharkiv have reportedly recaptured a number of villages, driving Russian positions back towards the internationally recognized border.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Ukraine, dependent on the strength of its military, may seek to go beyond recapturing territory occupied by Russia in the course of the war and look to re-assert itself in the Donbas.
Heavy fighting was reported along the whole of the contact line in the Donbas in last day, with Russian troops reportedly making marginal westward gains. Russia said its forces moved west from Popasna and reached the administrative border of Luhansk and Donetsk, but this couldn't be independently verified.
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking their promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least 6.65M refugees will leave Ukraine by the end of 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Receives Mixed Results in GOP primaries in West Virginia, Nebraska
The Facts
Former Pres. Trump saw mixed results for his chosen candidates in the GOP primaries held in West Virginia and Nebraska on Tuesday.
In Nebraska, Trump-backed Charles Herbster was defeated by Jim Pillen in the race to be the Republican party's candidate for governor. This comes only a week after the former president spoke at a rally in support of the agribusiness executive.
Herbster had previously been accused by eight women of groping in a report by the Nebraska Examiner, allegations that Herbster had denied and Trump had urged voters to ignore.
The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump is now 1 in midterm primaries victories so far, with J.D. Vance, who earned Ohio's GOP nomination for US Senate last week, being his most notable win. While the candidates have worked hard for their nominations, it's undoubtedly been Trump's stamp of approval - most obvious in Vance's case - that provided the final push needed to win. The former president clearly remains Kingmaker of the GOP.
Democratic narrative
The jury is still out on Trump's influence within the GOP. While he will almost certainly brag about his winning record - with Herbster being his first chosen candidate to lose - given that most so far have been incumbents likely to win anyways, the results aren't really all that impressive. Besides, right-wing candidates with strong media presence were doing well even before Trump showed up; perhaps the right's powerful media ecosystem is the real Kingmaker of the GOP?
40+ Inmates Killed In Ecuador Prison Riot
The Facts
Ecuador's Interior Minister, Patricio Carrillo, said on Mon. that at least 44 inmates were killed in a clash between rival local gangs. This comes little more than a month after another prison riot resulted in 20 deaths.
The riot broke out in the maximum security wing of the Social Bellavista rehabilitation center in Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, around 150 km west of the capital Quito.
At the time of the riot, only 25 officers were on duty for the entire prison, which housed more than 1.6K detainees, which is nearly double its original capacity of 905.
The Spin
Narrative A
Ecuadorian authorities must expand their efforts to fix the national prison system's structural issues. The prisons have been out of control and overcrowded for more than a decade, forcing the government to seek more effective long-term solutions.
Narrative B
Deadly violence in Ecuador's prisons is connected to conflict between gangs associated with Mexican cartels. Pres. Guillermo Lasso has been trying to counter the surge of violence, but his hands have been tied by Constitutional Court rulings that have limited his emergency powers in this crisis.
Yoon Suk-yeol Sworn In As South Korea's New President
The Facts
Yoon Suk-yeol took office on Tues. as South Korea's new president. The conservative leader won by a razor-thin margin over his liberal opponent Lee Jae-myung.
He promised in his inaugural speech to address the country's economic and social crisis by promoting "liberal democracy" and "science, technology and innovation."
The former prosecutor also said that his government was ready for an "audacious plan" to bolster the North Korean economy should the DPRK undergo "complete denuclearization."
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Yoon Suk-yeol is a divisive populist with dangerous similarities to Donald Trump. Like Trump, he's a political novice who favors divisive rhetoric instead of offering solutions to people's real problems. This doesn't bode well for the future of South Korea's domestic and foreign policy.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is good news for freedom and democracy. South Korea will strengthen its role as a reliable partner for a values-based and liberal order alongside the US, even if Pres. Yoon Suk-yeol will have to adapt to changing geopolitical realities.
Palestinian Authority President Vowes to Take Akleh Killing Investigation to ICC
The Facts
Palestinian Authority Pres. Mahmoud Abbas on Thurs. rejected Israel's proposal of a joint investigation regarded the killing of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh and vowed to take the case to the International Criminal Court in the Hague.
Akleh, a veteran journalist for Al Jazeera, was fatally shot in the head by a live bullet on Wed. while she was covering an Israeli military operation in the West Bank city of Jenin. Her producer, Ali al-Samudi, was also shot and is in stable condition.
Al Jazeera said that an Israeli sniper shot Akleh, which has been reiterated by other journalists who were at the scene.
The Spin
Pro-Palestine narrative
There's no doubt that Israeli forces deliberately killed Akleh. She was hundreds of meters away from any armed clashes, Israeli snipers were present in the area, and several witnesses said that they had fired at her team. Akleh's killing is a heinous crime and clearly violates international laws and norms. Israel must be held accountable.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though the death of Akleh is tragic, critics of Israel are always quick to jump to conclusions about events in the West Bank. Jenin is a well-known hotbed of terrorist activity, and it's well within the realm of possibility that Akleh was killed by indiscriminate Palestinian gunfire.
Narrative C
This is a heartbreaking tragedy, and sadly both sides are already using it to push political agendas. Nobody knows who killed Akleh, and a quick, fair, and thorough investigation must be undertaken.
Bitcoin City: Salvadoran President Unveils Layout of Crypto Utopia
The Facts
Pres. Nayib Bukele of El Salvador has revealed plans for the country's yet-to-be-built Bitcoin City, posting a scale model on Twitter.
Bitcoin City will be built near the Conchagua volcano in southeastern El Salvador. Along with being a crypto mining and trading hub, it will also have residential areas, commercial areas, services, entertainment, restaurants, and an airport.
The country plans to raise funds via a $1B "Bitcoin Bond" in partnership with digital assets infrastructure company Blockstream. $500M will be used to buy bitcoin, while the other half will go toward bitcoin mining infrastructure and energy.
The Spin
Narrative A
Bitcoin City is a visionary plan to put El Salvador at the forefront of the digital future. It will encourage foreign investment through a progressive tax scheme whereby foreign investors will pay only value-added taxes that go toward municipal infrastructure, maintenance, and bond payments. If everything goes as planned, these incentives will spur more people to adopt bitcoin, ultimately benefiting the crypto market and El Salvador as a whole.
Narrative B
Most Salvadorans aren't as enthusiastic as Bukele about Bitcoin City. Eight months after the country introduced its own e-wallet with a $30 reward for joining, only 20% of Salvadorans are still using the service, with most opting to stick to cash. As the price of bitcoin continues to fall and its adoption by the country's populace continues to fail, Bitcoin City will need more than just tax incentives to thrive.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 5 countries will recognize Bitcoin as legal tender by Jan 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Musk Says He Would Lift Twitter's Trump Ban
The Facts
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who's in the midst of a $44B takeover of Twitter, said on Tues. that, if successful, he will "reverse the permaban" of Trump from the platform.
In comments made virtually at the Financial Times Future of the Car conference, Musk said "I think [the permanent ban] was a morally bad decision, to be clear, and foolish in the extreme."
Trump has been banned from Twitter since shortly after the Jan. 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol. Twitter accused him of breaking its rule against inciting violence and said the ban was to prevent "further incitement of violence."
The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
The lifting of the Trump Twitter ban would be a victory for free speech. Assuming he'd return to his old tweeting ways, it would also be a boon for his prospects to return to the presidency in 2024.
Left narrative
Trump was a misinformation-spreading menace before he was banned and he continues to be one without the help of Twitter. As long as the twice-impeached former president continues to sew unfounded doubts about the legitimacy of the 2020 election, it makes no sense to give him back a megaphone.
Narrative C
Even with Trump banned, Twitter continues to be a hellscape of fake accounts, misogyny, racism, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia and other social maladies. Twitter is irredeemable, so if even Musk gives in to conservatives' distorted idea of free speech and lets Trump back on it won't make much of a difference.
Nerd narrative
There's a 60% chance that Trump will regain a Twitter account in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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