Vance Wins CPAC 2028 Straw Poll Again, Rubio Moves to 35%
The Spin
Narrative A
Rubio's surge from 3% to 35% at CPAC isn't just a number; it's a signal that the 2028 race now has a real second contender. As Secretary of State, Rubio has championed American values abroad without the baggage of being seen as soft on military action, particularly with Iran, giving him an edge that Vance simply can't match. Evangelicals are locking in, and if Trump weighs in, this race flips fast.
Narrative B
Vance's slipping support and Rubio's surge mask deeper fissures in the Republican Party as the Iran war is splitting MAGA between hawks and "America First" skeptics. From Bannon to Matt Gaetz, dissent is growing louder, not disappearing. CPAC's own stage showed a movement wrestling with its identity, marked by internal conflict and mounting frustration, not unity, heading into 2028.
Narrative C
Vance still won CPAC, and the poll's other findings make clear the MAGA base is firmly behind the Iran war, with 89% backing military force against the Iranian regime. The so-called "fissures" are overblown as antiwar voices like Bannon collapsed from 12% to near zero in the straw poll. CPAC 2026 showed a movement that's debating tactics, not fracturing at its core, with a strong bench of 2028 options.
