US Midterms: Texas Senate Republican Primary
The Facts
- Overview: Texas Republicans voted to select their U.S. Senate nominee on March 3, 2026, with incumbent John Cornyn seeking a fifth term. The race has national implications, as Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority and maintaining Texas is considered imperative for GOP control. Since no candidate secured over 50% of the primary vote (Cornyn with 42.5% and Paxton 40.8%), a runoff will occur on May 26. This contest represents a critical battle between the Texas GOP's establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction, with potential ramifications for down-ballot races and overall turnout.
- Candidates: Cornyn, who has served since 2002, Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has held that office since 2015, and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, a second-term congressman from Houston, are the three main contenders in this race. The Decision Desk HQ polling average as of Feb. 26 showed Paxton with 38.7% support, while Cornyn was second at 33.9% and Hunt was at 17.1%. Cornyn has maintained a substantial fundraising advantage, while Paxton holds higher favorability among Republican primary voters despite both candidates registering high unfavorability ratings statewide. Hunt positions himself as a younger alternative appealing to both establishment and MAGA factions, though he faces name recognition challenges.
- Border Security and Immigration Policy: All three candidates position themselves as immigration hardliners while differing on tactics and emphasis. Paxton has built his reputation through numerous legal challenges against previous Democratic administrations' immigration policies. Cornyn touts securing $12 billion in federal reimbursement for Texas border security efforts and supporting border wall construction. Hunt emphasizes border security as a campaign pillar, backing legislation to end catch-and-release and deport asylum seekers pending court decisions. All three support building border barriers, mandating E-Verify for employers and enhanced enforcement. They disagree over who would most aggressively pursue these goals.
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The Spin
Narrative A
Cornyn has proved he can deliver for Texas over his 24 years in office. He secured $13.5 billion to reimburse Texas for Biden-era border costs, voted with Trump more than 95% of current senators, and is backed by the National Border Patrol Council, former Gov. Rick Perry and Senate leadership. Nominating a scandal-plagued opponent risks handing Democrats a competitive race. Cornyn is battle-tested, trusted and wins. Cornyn delivers veteran leadership, a steady hand to Texas and a steady hand to the GOP at large.
Narrative B
Paxton is a Washington outsider and the only candidate in this race that the Capitol fears. As Texas attorney general, he sued the Biden administration, Big Pharma, Big Tech and the FBI in order to fight for the constitutional rights of Americans. He fought to end abortion in Texas and blocked gender ideology in schools and sports. Backed by Turning Point Action, endorsed by 250+ conservative leaders, and a tried-and-true MAGA supporter, Paxton has proven he wins statewide even under fire. The establishment's smears only confirm he's the real threat to the status quo.
Narrative C
Texas doesn't have to choose between a RINO (Republican in Name Only) and a scandal-ridden long-time politician. Hunt is a West Point grad, Apache pilot, combat veteran and he was the first in the nation to endorse Trump. He's the only candidate who can win both the primary and the general without costing Republicans a whopping $200 million. He's the most consistently conservative legislator from Texas in Congress, outpolls both rivals against Democratic opponents and represents the next generation of MAGA leadership. The future of Texas is Hunt.
Public Figures
The Controversies
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