Micronesia

Super Typhoon Bavi Makes Landfall in the Western Pacific

Is this proof of a climate change crisis or just the natural fury of a strong El Niño?

Published JUL 6

Super Typhoon Bavi Makes Landfall in the Western Pacific

Story

Above: Super Typhoon Bavi impacted Guam with strong winds on July 6. Image credit: Yuichi Yamazaki/AFP/Getty Images

The Facts

Super Typhoon Bavi made landfall Monday on Rota, the southernmost island of the Northern Mariana Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (290 km/h) and gusts of 215 mph (346 km/h) — equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane. Authorities reported major damage, with some cellphone service disrupted after a communications tower fell.
NBC
Fox Weather
The Independent
The eye of Bavi passed directly over Rota, a US territory with a population of around 2,000, bringing winds exceeding 150 mph (241 km/h). The National Weather Service warned the storm could make much of the island "uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer."
The Independent
Reuters
Typhoon and flash flood warnings were in effect for Guam, Tinian and Saipan, with the storm forecast to bring at least 20 inches (50.8 cm) of rain to the region. Saipan's international airport recorded wind gusts exceeding 100 mph (160 km/h).
ABC News
Fox Weather
The Northern Mariana Islands and Guam, home to a combined 210,000 people, were still recovering from Super Typhoon Sinlaku, which struck in April, killed 17 people and caused an estimated $1.5 billion in damage. Many residents of Saipan and Tinian had been without power since that storm.
The New York Times
INQUIRER.net
Yale Climate Connections
Bavi rapidly intensified over ocean surface temperatures of 29–30°C (84.2°F-86°F), with low vertical wind shear and high ocean heat content enabling it to become the third Category 5 storm globally in 2026. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center tracked the storm moving west-northwest toward Taiwan and mainland China after passing the Marianas.
Yale Climate Connections
Forbes
Scientists and meteorological agencies have linked the intensification of storms like Bavi to El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño had already begun in the tropical Pacific and was likely to be strong.
NPR
Anadolu Agency

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The Spin

Climate-concerned narrative

Super Typhoon Bavi slammed Rota with winds over 180 mph, causing catastrophic damage to a U.S. territory still reeling from Super Typhoon Sinlaku just months earlier. Parts of Saipan and Tinian were already without power from Sinlaku when Bavi hit, piling devastation on devastation. Climate change, tied to a turbocharged El Nino is driving this surge in powerful storms and U.S. territories in the Western Pacific.

Yale Climate Connections

Climate-skeptic narrative

Bavi's explosive rapid intensification — gaining 100 mph in just 36 hours — was fueled by record-warm ocean waters and low wind shear, making it a textbook product of a strong El Niño season. The storm's Category 5 strength reflects natural Pacific variability, not an unprecedented climate emergency. Strong El Niño years have always produced clusters of super typhoons, and forecasters had high confidence in both track and intensity well before landfall.

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