Weather

NOAA: El Niño Has Officially Arrived

Is this an imminent climate-fueled threat or are the alarming forecasts irresponsible?

Published JUN 11

Story

Above: A forecast map displayed at the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, Switzerland, on June 2. Image credit: Fabrice Coffrini/Getty Images

The Facts

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially declared the arrival of El Niño on Thursday, stating there is a 63% chance it will become a "very strong" event between November 2026 and January 2027, ranking among the largest since 1950.
CNN
Daily Mail
Forecasters say this El Niño is developing earlier and faster than typical, with ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific already 3.8°F above average. "Super El Niño" events are relatively rare, with the most recent ones occurring in 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83.
CNN
Daily Mail
El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing storm activity in the Pacific. The NOAA and Colorado State University forecast 8-14 and 11 named Atlantic storms, respectively, this season, with the average being 14.
The Hill
Fox Weather
In the U.S., El Niño typically brings wetter conditions to the South and warmer, drier weather to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. It can also raise the risk of high-tide flooding and harmful algae blooms along the West Coast.
The Hill
The New York Times
Globally, El Niño is associated with drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of Africa, disrupted monsoons in India and flooding in parts of South America. Governments in Central America's "Dry Corridor" have raised alert levels over food security concerns.
The Associated Press
The Daily Telegraph
Some projections suggest that El Niño's heat transfer from ocean to atmosphere, combined with existing global warming, makes 2027 likely to set a new record for the planet's warmest year.
The Associated Press
CNN

Sources Split

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The Spin

Climate-concerned narrative

A Super El Niño is coming, and with the NOAA giving it a 63% chance of becoming one of the strongest events since 1950, it's virtually guaranteed to set a new global temperature record. This isn't just a weather story, as strong El Niños devastate economies, trigger droughts and fuel wildfires across multiple continents. With the background climate already hotter than at any time in recorded history, the knock-on effects could be unprecedented.

Daily Mail

CNN

Climate-skeptic narrative

The Super El Niño panic is getting way ahead of the actual science. Most reliable dynamical models point to a weak-to-moderate El Niño at best, and spring forecasts are historically the least skillful — meaning the breathless headlines are built on shaky ground. Producers and the public are better served by waiting for post-July data before making major decisions based on fear-driven forecasts circulating on social media.

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Western Ag Network