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Eisenkot is Netanyahu's strongest challenger and the clear favorite to replace him. A political novice with a nondescript platform, he has nonetheless consistently polled at or above Likud, even making inroads in traditional Likud strongholds. His unassuming style, IDF record and personal sacrifice after losing his son in Gaza have fueled his appeal, while his campaign has shown it can play hardball. Even Likud's attacks now focus heavily on him, underscoring the threat he poses to Netanyahu.
Netanyahu indeed faces his toughest fight to retain power, with his coalition projected to fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. His government has been weakened by the wars since Oct. 7 and unpopular ultra-Orthodox allies, while Religious Zionism risks missing the electoral threshold. Yet Netanyahu remains formidable, with Likud still neck-and-neck with Yashar and neither side commanding a clear path to a majority. His experience, security credentials, and long tenure at the center of Israeli politics make him particularly suited to lead Israel through a period of war and regional uncertainty.