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The odds AI wipes out humanity by 2030 are near zero; people are too spread out, too diverse and too resourceful to just collapse. A decade of doomsday hype has mainly made frontier labs richer, pulling in billions without delivering a single working safety fix. Real threats like bioweapon know-how, grid cyberattacks and deepfake floods deserve the focus extinction tales keep stealing.
Systems that can build their own upgrades are close enough that waiting for proof is a luxury nobody has. Every job done on a screen could be automated in short order, while wealth concentrates fast and infrastructure is left exposed to agent-driven cyberattacks that grids and airports cannot absorb. The gap between what's coming and public understanding has never been wider.