Controversy
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Will AI Reach Human-Level Cognitive Capability by 2028?

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Claims

Mustafa Suleyman
Mustafa Suleyman“White collar work where you're sitting down at a computer either being you know a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.”
“We predict that A.I.s will continue to improve to the point where they’re fully autonomous agents that are better than humans at everything by the end of 2027 or so."Sep 07, 2026
New York Times
New York Times
"It is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer."Sep 07, 2026
Tredjesidan
Tredjesidan
"Using the operationalization of powerful AI that I give below, I think powerful AI by early 2027 is around 6% likely."Sep 07, 2026
Lesswrong
Lesswrong
Anthropic
Anthropic"We expect powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027… Intellectual capabilities matching or exceeding that of Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines."Sep 07, 2026
Lesswrong
Lesswrong
Dario Amodei
Dario Amodei"My guess is that we’ll get that in 2026 or 2027."Jan 27, 2026
Aletteraday
Aletteraday
Kalshi
Kalshi"There is a 16.1% chance OpenAI will achieve AGI before 2027."Sep 07, 2026
Kalshi
Kalshi
"My median is roughly 2032, but with AGI by 2027 as a serious possibility (~15-20%)."Jun 28, 2025
Aifutures
Aifutures
Shane Legg
Shane Legg"50% chance of Minimal AGI by 2028. As I've been saying publicly since 2009."Jan 23, 2026
Liz Webster
Liz Webster
Gary Marcus
Gary Marcus“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
Polymarket
Polymarket"There is a 22% chance that OpenAI will announce it has achieved AGI before 2027."Sep 07, 2026
Polymarket
Polymarket
Elon Musk
Elon Musk“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it’s probably next year, within two years [2026]."Apr 09, 2024
Futurism
Futurism
"For 2027 I’m at 2%—as we discussed, I’ve pretty much ruled this out."Jan 06, 2026
Forecastingresearch
Forecastingresearch
Sam Altman
Sam Altman"2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world."Jun 19, 2025
Sam Altman
Sam Altman
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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.16.0