Controversy
Status:Open
Will AI Reach Human-Level Cognitive Capability by 2028?
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Claims
Mustafa Suleyman“White collar work where you're sitting down at a computer either being you know a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.”
Daniel Kokotajlo“We predict that A.I.s will continue to improve to the point where they’re fully autonomous agents that are better than humans at everything by the end of 2027 or so."Sep 07, 2026
Leopold Aschenbrenner"It is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer."Sep 07, 2026
Ryan Greenblatt"Using the operationalization of powerful AI that I give below, I think powerful AI by early 2027 is around 6% likely."Sep 07, 2026
Anthropic"We expect powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027… Intellectual capabilities matching or exceeding that of Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines."Sep 07, 2026
Eli Lifland"My median is roughly 2032, but with AGI by 2027 as a serious possibility (~15-20%)."Jun 28, 2025
Gary Marcus“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
Polymarket"There is a 22% chance that OpenAI will announce it has achieved AGI before 2027."Sep 07, 2026
Elon Musk“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it’s probably next year, within two years [2026]."Apr 09, 2024
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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 8.0.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 8.0.0