Climate change

Study: Extreme Fire Weather Days Doubled Globally Since 1979

Are extreme fires driven by climate change or are they down to individual human error and failed suppression policies?

Published FEB 19

Study: Extreme Fire Weather Days Doubled Globally Since 1979

Story

Above: A forest fire burning in the mountains of the rural area of Epuyen, Argentina, on Feb. 1. Image credit: Gonzalo Keogan/AFP/Getty Images

The Facts

Researchers from the University of East Anglia and the University of California, Merced, have found that synchronized extreme fire weather, characterized by exceptionally warm, dry and often windy conditions, has increased significantly worldwide since 1979.
Cnbctv18.Com
PHYS
In their study published Wednesday in Science Advances, the team estimates that more than half of the observed increase in synchronous fire weather is driven by human-caused climate change, while natural climate variability can strongly amplify synchronicity in some regions.
The Washington Times
EurekAlert!
In many areas, the number of high-risk days happening at the same time has more than doubled. The continental United States averaged 7.7 synchronous fire weather days per year from 1979 to 1988, but in the last 10 years, that average rose to 38 days per annum.
Cnbctv18.Com
PHYS
From 1979 through the mid-1990s, the world experienced an average of 22 synchronous fire-weather days per year — periods when extreme fire conditions occurred simultaneously across large regions of the world. By 2023 and 2024, that number had risen to more than 60 days annually.
Science
Guardian
The study found that simultaneous fire weather tends to be more strongly associated with poorer air quality in boreal regions, Equatorial Asia, Africa and South America. In Europe, population exposure to fire-sourced air pollution is almost 200% higher during years with the most synchronous fire weather days.
Science
University of California, Merced
According to researchers behind the study, when extreme fire weather occurs across many places at once, it increases the likelihood of widespread fire outbreaks and strains firefighting capacity, because of the pressure put on crews, aircraft, and equipment that cannot be easily shared across locations.
The Washington Times
EurekAlert!

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The Spin

Climate-concerned narrative

Extreme fire weather days have nearly tripled globally since 1979, with human-caused climate change responsible for over 60% of this alarming increase. The synchronous nature of these conditions means multiple regions now face fire threats simultaneously, overwhelming suppression resources that once could be shared between areas with staggered fire seasons. South America has seen fire weather days skyrocket from 5.5 to over 70 annually, proving the climate crisis is fundamentally reshaping global fire risk.

Guardian

Climate-skeptic narrative

Long-term data reveals wildfires were far more frequent before 1900, and current increases simply reflect relaxed fire suppression policies after decades of dangerous fuel accumulation. The flammability of vegetation depends on 1 to 4 days of dry weather, not on climate trends that require 30 years to detect, while 85% to 95% of fires stem from human ignitions, including arson. Blaming CO2 ignores that only 6% of the Earth has experienced increased aridity, with most changes driven by natural La Niña conditions rather than warming.

Jim Steele on X