'Doomsday Clock' Set at 85 Seconds to Midnight, Closest Ever
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Global catastrophe edges closer as major powers double down on aggressive nationalism. Russia, China and the U.S. have escalated nuclear competition, intensified regional conflicts and undermined arms control, while climate inaction and AI-driven biological threats worsen. Leadership failures and rising autocracy accelerate these existential risks. To avert disaster, nations must resume nuclear dialogue, curb destabilizing weapons and military use of AI, and invest in climate and renewable energy solutions.
Pro-Trump narrative
What the Bulletin Scientists fail to realize is that strong U.S. leadership keeps the world relatively stable. Renewed American strength under President Trump has prevented global war, restored deterrence and eliminated Iran’s nuclear threat. NATO allies now invest properly in defense, while strategic focus on homeland protection, burden-sharing and decisive operations deters Russia and China, containing nuclear escalation and mitigating AI-driven threats. Voluntary “cooperation” from Beijing or Moscow is a fantasy — only strength ensures it.
Pro-China narrative
Rising global tensions stem from U.S. obsession with absolute security superiority. By pursuing hegemony through first-use doctrines, coercive alliances and financial pressure, Washington destabilizes the global balance — like climbing too high on a shared ladder and risking collapse for all. China maintains nuclear stockpiles at minimal levels under a no-first-use policy, promotes multilateral disarmament and advances dialogue to reduce strategic risks. By emphasizing equality, restraint and shared security, China seeks stability over escalation.
Pro-Russia narrative
The Doomsday Clock’s advance reflects Washington’s refusal to pursue serious arms control. Russia repeatedly called for lowering tensions and extending New START, offering to uphold limits even after its expiration, but the U.S. failed to engage. By ignoring dialogue and expanding NATO nuclear structures, Washington fuels instability. Moscow argues real security requires equal restraint, renewed disarmament talks and recognition that strategic stability cannot exist without mutual respect.
Pro-Europe narrative
The Doomsday Clock’s warning exposes a hard truth for Europe: foreign nuclear weapons remain stationed on European soil, beyond democratic control. U.S. bombs in NATO states and Russian weapons in Belarus turn Europe into both launchpad and target. Deterrence built on other nations’ arsenals leaves Europeans bearing the risk without the say. Real security requires removing foreign nukes, rejecting nuclear sharing and advancing the Nuclear Ban Treaty as a path toward disarmament.
Metaculus Prediction
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