Europe

Poll: Many in US, Europe Expect World War Within Decade

Published MAY 6 2025

Story

Above: Soldiers from the Lithuanian army guard a command post during the "Allied Spirit 25" U.S. military and NATO training exercise at the U.S. Army's Hohenfels training area in Hohenfels, Germany, on March 12, 2025. Image credit: Alex Kraus/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

A YouGov poll conducted ahead of the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) revealed that between 41% and 55% of respondents in the U.K., France, Germany, Italy and Spain, and 45% of Americans, believe another world war is likely within the next 5-10 years.
YouGov
Guardian
Royal British Legion
Majorities across surveyed nations (68-76%) expect any new global conflict would involve nuclear weapons, with 57-73% believing it would cause greater loss of life than World War II, and 25-44% fearing it could kill most people worldwide.
YouGov
Guardian
72-82% of Western Europeans and 69% of Americans view Russia as the most probable cause of another world war, while tensions with the U.S. are also seen as a threat to European peace by majorities in Spain (58%), Germany (55%), and France (53%).
YouGov
Guardian
Only 16-44% of European respondents believed their armed forces could effectively protect them, compared to 71% of Americans who expressed confidence in U.S. military capabilities. As of 2024, the U.S. accounted for two-thirds of NATO expenditure.
YouGov
Guardian
NATO
Between 31% and 52% of respondents across surveyed countries in a separate YouGov poll believe crimes similar to those committed by the Nazi regime could happen in their own country during their lifetime, while higher percentages (44-60%) think such atrocities could occur in another Western European country or the U.S.
YouGov
Guardian
Amid the 80th anniversary of the end of WW II, majorities (82-90%) across all surveyed nations believe it is important that the conflict be taught in schools, with 72-87% saying the events of the war and those leading up to it remain relevant today.
YouGov
Guardian

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

With rival superpowers rearming, proxy wars expanding, and nuclear threats now part of everyday rhetoric, it's hard to believe World War III won't happen. The world is fractured between democratic and authoritarian blocs, with flashpoints in Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Middle East. History shows war is not an anomaly but a pattern we repeat. Unfortunately, international conflict remains an inevitable destiny.

The Week

The Telegraph

Narrative B

World War III isn't inevitable. Despite rising global tensions, today's powers face economic strains, mutual deterrence, and interconnected markets, making a full-scale global war far less likely. History may rhyme, but it doesn't repeat, and panic online often distorts reality more than it reflects it. While the world must stay vigilant amid uncertain times, alarmism will likely only help manifest the destiny we wish to avoid.