CONTROVERSY
Status:Open
Will the Israel-Gaza war lead to regional escalation?
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani"There are good reasons to believe that Iran has decided not to enter the conflict directly."Nov 09, 2023
Hussein Ibish“Everything is in place for a cascading series of events that will culminate in Israel attacking Iran.”Oct 10, 2023
Tor Wennesland"[T]he risk of an expansion of this conflict is real, very, very real and extremely dangerous."Oct 23, 2023
Sinan ÜlgenThe Israel-Hamas war "raises the very real risk of a catastrophic regional conflagration."Nov 09, 2023
Gary Samore"In this scenario [if there's an Israel-Hezbollah war], U.S. intervention becomes more likely."Nov 03, 2023
Joost Hiltermann“The longer the war in Gaza continues, the greater the risk of even further spillover of the war into other regional theaters.”Feb 13, 2024
Raz ZimmtIran will not intervene as its "concerns about engaging in direct confrontation with Israel outweight its desire to exact revenge."Feb 08, 2024
Hasnain Kazim"There are now so many forces at play that a proxy war may emerge that will be devastating."Oct 23, 2023
Negar Mortazavi"[D]evelopments on the ground have the potential to escalate quickly, making the unthinkable [a major Middle East war] unavoidable."Nov 09, 2023
Michael DiMino"[T]he risk of direct US involvement in the [Israel-Hamas war]... is higher than most people realize."Oct 10, 2023
Karim MezranDespite no country wanting a regional conflict, "each country acts in such a way that exponentially increases its likelihood."Jan 23, 2024
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian“Due to the expansion of the intensity of the war against Gaza’s civilian residents, expansion of the scope of the war has become inevitable.”Nov 10, 2023
Gary Samore"The greatest danger is that an Israeli invasion of Gaza... will lead to a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, which could potentially draw the United States and Iran into the conflict."Nov 03, 2023
Fabrice Balanche"The Iranians do not want a confrontation with Israel, and neither does Hezbollah, because they know they will be on the back foot."Jan 04, 2024
Alex Vatanka"Iran prefers to play the long game, to keep pressure on Israel, through its proxies.”Oct 20, 2023
Mark Montgomery“It’s going to take something big [for the US to get involved in the Israel-Gaza conflict].”Oct 20, 2023
Abdel Fattah el-SisiHamas may establish contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood and "Sinai would become the base for further attacks against Israel."Oct 23, 2023