Who Could Be the Next Pope?
Time3 days
Black Smoke Signals No Pope Elected at First Conclave Vote
Above: St Peter's Square during the conclave in the Vatican on May 7, 2025. Image copyright: Filippo Monteforte/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Progressive narrative
The unprecedented diversity of this conclave — with cardinals from 70 countries and Europeans no longer holding a majority — signals a historic shift toward a truly global Church. This transformation, largely shaped by Pope Francis's appointments, creates an opportunity to elect a pontiff who better represents Catholicism's new center of gravity in the Global South, where church membership is growing rapidly and issues like poverty and social inequality often intersect with pastoral priorities.
Conservative narrative
The deep divisions exposed during pre-conclave meetings reflect profound disagreements over Pope Francis's progressive reforms. Many cardinals seek a return to traditional doctrine on issues like communion for divorced Catholics and same-sex blessings, viewing the late pontiff's changes as potentially undermining church teaching and unity. The selection process is shaping up to be not just a choice of leadership, but a decisive verdict on the direction and legacy of Francis's papacy.
Cynical narrative
As the conclave begins, the cardinals aren't just choosing a pope — they're choosing how loud the next round of internal conflict will be. A progressive could stir high hopes and higher backlash, just like Pope Francis did. A conservative might lower expectations — and the temperature. Either way, the deep divisions within the Catholic Church are here to stay. The real question: Who can manage the mess without making it worse?