UK Elections: YouGov Poll Shows Reform Ahead of Tories

UK Elections: YouGov Poll Shows Reform Ahead of Tories
Above: Reform UK leader Nigel Farage arrives to speak at a press conference June 14, 2024. Image copyright: Verity

The Facts

  • YouGov's latest poll, published on Thursday, places Reform UK as the second most popular UK political party according to data gathered between June 12-13. Headline results saw Reform (19%) sitting a percentage point above the Conservative Party's 18%, with both nearly 20 points behind Labour at 37%.

  • When voters were asked specifically who they intend to vote for on election day, both Reform (13%) and the Tories (11%) ranked behind "don't know" at 15%. Liberal Democrat supporters sat at 10%, the same amount as those intending not to vote, with the Green Party at 5%. Labour remained first with 29%.


The Spin

Reform narrative

Farage and Reform have surpassed the Tories as the main party on the British right, and this poll is just the beginning of a seismic political shift. After years of being let down by the milquetoast Conservatives, patriotic Brits are flocking to Reform’s common-sense message of limiting immigration and putting the UK first. The Tories are in deep trouble, and leaders, including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, have themselves to blame for betraying their constituents.

Tory narrative

While many Brits have grown tired of the Tories after over a decade of rule, the answer does not lie in a hard-right turn. Labour has been poised to win this year’s election for some time, and Reform’s recent polling rise shouldn't be considered a long-term indicator of sentiment. The political pendulum will always swing back and forth, and the Conservatives will only regain power by running as a center-right party.

Labour narrative

Farage has completely upended the Tories like a human wrecking ball. His brand of politics is on the fringe, but he's exposing a major divide on the British right at the expense of a weak Conservative Party lacking in grassroots support. It remains to be seen how Reform will perform on Election Day, but the party’s rise could facilitate a massive majority for Labour.


Metaculus Prediction


Public figures in this story


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