Handicapping the court case against Israel as political as Eurovision
Jerusalem PostJan 11
ICJ: Israel Responds to Genocide Allegations
Image copyright: Michel Porro/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Facts
As Israeli lawyers began on Friday their response to the genocide case South Africa put forward before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague, legal advisor Tal Becker said that such claims are false and "grossly distorted," arguing that Israel is in a self-defense war against Hamas, not against the Palestinian people.
This comes as the UN-backed ICJ heard arguments from South Africa on Thursday, as the country accused the Jewish state of committing genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in breach of the 1948 Genocide Convention.
The Spin
Pro-Israel narrative
If we lived in a perfect or, at least, a fair world, the panel hearing this preposterous case would base their decision solely on legal merits, thus ruling in favor of Israel. However, given the nature of the United Nations, the odds are 50-50, as one must expect political considerations to come into play as countries such as Lebanon, China, and Russia will lobby their jurists on how to rule in this case.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Palestinians in Gaza, as well as the West Bank and around the world, are immensely grateful to South Africa for bringing this case to the ICJ. The symbolism of this is not lost on Palestinians, who understand that South Africa has also suffered from apartheid, racial discrimination, and genocide. Hopefully, this opportunity for justice and accountability will not be missed.
Nerd narrative
There's a 56% chance that the International Court of Justice will order provisional measures against Israel before March 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.