The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While all concerns will be debated and no decision has yet been reached, the transfer of cluster bombs to Ukraine would provide Kyiv with an immediate increase of firepower that will help it punch through Russian defensive lines. The move would improve the prospects of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Establishment-critical narrative

Cluster bombs can inflict devastating damage to civilians — particularly if fired at densely populated areas. Worse still, released bomblets frequently do not explode on impact, meaning they can remain a threat like landmines for years to come. The US should not be considering sending the weapons to Ukraine, rather, it should be backing disarmament initiatives.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

More neutral establishment stance articles

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