US Believes 20K Russians Killed Fighting in Ukraine Since December

Image copyright: AP

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The White House estimates show that Russia has had a devastating few months of fighting — an acceleration from the beginning of the war and more losses than some of the bloodiest battles of World War II. Russia is on the back foot as Ukraine's counteroffensive approaches.

Establishment-critical narrative

If the numbers are to be trusted, the Russia-Ukraine war would be one of the bloodiest in modern history. The problem is that all parties have an interest in minimizing their losses while exaggerating those of their enemies. Getting accurate casualty data is fraught with difficulties and these numbers should not be accepted blindly.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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