The Spin

Narrative A

Now that Ukraine has broken through the first line of Russian defenses — the most heavily mined and protected — its progress going forward will be much swifter. Ukrainian forces will keep pushing Russia out of its territory and carry on advancing towards the Sea of Azov.

Narrative B

Ukraine has made modest gains, but they have come at the expense of significant losses and equipment. Ukraine is unlikely to drive Russia out of all its territory, and if Kyiv overextends itself in aim of this goal, it may leave itself exposed to a new Russian offensive sweeping through its territory.

Metaculus Prediction


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