Ukraine Continues to Claim Gains Amid Widespread Clashes

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

As Ukraine's counteroffensive enters its fifth week, the country is continuing to advance and make incremental gains. The fighting has been difficult, yet Ukrainian soldiers have continued to drive Russia back. Though a monumental challenge remains, Ukraine is headed in the right direction.

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite Ukraine's marginal advances, its forces are still caught up in Russia's primary defensive lines and are incurring heavy casualties. They have yet to reach Russia's main defensive lines, where they'll receive even stiffer resistance. Ukraine faces a long fight to regain control of its sovereign territory.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia remains open to a political solution to the conflict. However, the chances of such a resolution are slim, because Ukraine and its Western backers are still committed to betting on Ukraine's chances at defeating the Russian militarily. Ukraine must give up its unrealistic counteroffensive ambitions and come to the negotiating table.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

More neutral establishment stance articles

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