Russia Launches Major Offensive in Eastern Ukraine

Russia Launches Major Offensive in Eastern Ukraine
Image copyright: Roman Chop/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

With Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin's birthday on Oct. 7, Ukraine's intelligence services were aware of the coming attack on Avdiivka — meant as a present for him. This, along with the fact that forces told the locals of their plans in their downtime, meant Ukraine's forces were fully prepared and are now repelling and destroying the enemy attack.

Pro-Russia narrative

In an offensive supported by aircraft, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems, Russia continues to improve its positions in the Avdiivka direction and continues to gain ground.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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