Russia Raises Interest Rate to 12% Amid 17-Month Ruble Low

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The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

The weakened ruble has been caused by monetary policy that's allowed Russian borrowing to go up and up, thus increasing the money supply and driving up inflation. Nonetheless, Russia's central bank has all the necessary tools at its disposal to tackle this problem and the trend will soon be reversed.

Anti-Russia narrative

The slump in Russia's currency is a consequence of the Western sanctions that have squeezed Russia's economy, largely in the form of decreased income from exports of Russian oil and gas. The Kremlin is also spending more and more on its war effort, therefore its public finances are taking a toll.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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