Day 375: Conflict Intensifies in Bakhmut; Over 4,000 City Residents Remain

Image copyright: Reuters [via Al Jazeera]

The Facts

  • On Sunday, the battle for Bakhmut raged on, with Russian forces attempting to encircle the city, and Ukrainian military sources stating they had repelled over 130 Russian attacks. The Pro-Kremlin mercenary group Wagner said that the Bakhmut was "practically surrounded" with only one road left for Ukrainian forces to enter and exit.

  • Bakhmut's deputy mayor has reported that evacuations out of the city have slowed substantially. Oleksandr Marchenko stated to CNN that only five to 10 people were reportedly being evacuated each day, down from a previous high of 600 people per day; 4-4.5K residents are still reportedly in the city with little sentiment to leave.


The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian forces are continuing to capture towns on the outskirts of Bakhmut and progressing with their plans of encircling the city. Its capture is important as it will pave the way to securing the rest of the Donetsk region.

Anti-Russia narrative

Fierce fighting has already been going on in Bakhmut for months, and even if Russia prevails, it will have lost so many men and so much equipment that the result could hardly be celebrated. A Moscow victory in the region might be a symbolic gain but would provide little strategic benefit in the wider conflict.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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