The Dangers of ‘Catastrophic Consequences’
Foreign PolicyJan 05, 2023
Biden Says Threat of Putin Using Tactical Nuclear Weapons is 'Real'
Image copyright: [via Wikimedia Commons]
The Facts
After denouncing Russia's placement of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as "absolutely irresponsible" on Saturday, US Pres. Biden on Monday said the threat of Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin using such weapons was "real."
Speaking at a donor event in California, Biden said: "When I was out here about two years ago saying I worried about the Colorado River drying up, everybody looked at me like I was crazy. They looked at me like that when I said I worry about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons. It's real."
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Biden has a very complex task in trying to ensure that America's nuclear posture remains appropriate in the face of real and evolving Russian nuclear threats. There is a delicate line that must be balanced between making the stakes too high for Moscow and not promising consequences you're unwilling to inflict. Biden is managing the situation well but would be well advised to revisit the lessons from the Cuban missile crisis.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite the nuclear threats from Putin, it's far from certain that he'd be willing to be the first leader to have used the weapons since 1945. If his goal is to stay in power, then it's the wrong way to go about it. Plus, even if he did make the order for a nuclear strike, he has no guarantee it would be executed down the chain of command, nor can he guarantee that the dated weapons and delivery systems will work. The risks are overstated.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
