The Facts

  • Among 1,005 US Hispanic/Latino individuals surveyed for an Axios-Ipsos Latino poll released weeks before the November midterm elections, 33% said they’d vote Democrat, while 18% were leaning Republican, 23% said they didn’t know how they would vote, 17% said they wouldn’t vote.

  • In terms of top concerns, 37% of respondents cited inflation, and 36% pointed to crime. Immigration (26%), climate change (25%), health care (20%), political extremism or polarization (17%), taxes (14%), racial injustice (13%), and abortion (12%) rounded out the other issues.

The Spin

Democratic narrative

Continuing to focus on abortion — which crosses all demographics and geographies — is a way to win with Latinos and all ethnic groups. The abortion issue shows how extreme and out-of-touch Republicans are on numerous issues and will be pivotal to the Democrats' messaging with Latinos in the final weeks until the midterms.

Republican narrative

Democrats can keep focusing on abortion all they want, but that focus is just one of many issues that are turning Latino voters against them. In crucial regions, Latino voters are turning to Republicans to tackle issues like crime and inflation. The Democrats' path of preaching "wokeness" isn't working.

Metaculus Prediction

Political split



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