Biden, DeSantis Criticize Trump Hezbollah Comments
Former US Pres. Donald Trump has faced bipartisan criticism following comments made on Wednesday night in which he described Hezbollah —an Iran-backed group based in Lebanon on Israel's northern border, which fired missiles into an Israeli military site earlier this week — as "smart.”
Trump's full comment was: "And then two nights ago, I read all of Biden security people — can you imagine? National defense people and they said, 'Gee, I hope Hezbollah doesn’t attack from the north because that’s the most vulnerable spot.' I said, 'Wait a minute. You know, Hezbollah is very smart. They’re all very smart.'"
In response to the comments, White House spokesman Andrew Bates claimed that such a statement was “dangerous and unhinged."
Anti-Trump narrative
Trump's tone-deaf comments are a liability to not only himself but to the Republican Party as a whole. While he praises militant groups like Hezbollah, his congressional allies on Capitol Hill are hindering the US' ability to help its closest ally in the Middle East. This is not the look of a competent leader or political party.
Pro-Trump narrative
Context is everything, which is why it's deceptive to quote only one word out of an entire speech Trump gave. Trump was responding to Biden officials' careless comments, rightly saying it can't be assumed that Hezbollah is dumb and wouldn't attack a vulnerable part of Israel. He was simply acknowledging the failures of both US and Israeli intelligence, not patting terrorist groups on the back.
Japan Seeks to Revoke Unification Church's Legal Status
On Thursday, the Japanese government announced that it would ask a court to strip the Unification Church of its legal status as a religion, after investigations into former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's assassination raised questions about the Church's fundraising and business practices.
Claiming that the Church violated civil law, Japan's Education Minister Masahito Moriyama said the government is investigating its activities because it "deviated from the intended purpose of a religious corporation."
The government reportedly proposed seeking the Church's revocation after the Agency for Cultural Affairs analyzed testimonies from at least 169 people allegedly harmed by its fundraising tactics and found 32 cases of civil lawsuits acknowledging damages worth ¥2.2B ($14.7M).
Pro-establishment narrative
The Unification Church solicits substantial donations that bankrupt the families of its followers. It's about time the Church lost its legal status, as it exploits members, disrupts their lives, and impinges on their freedoms.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's unfortunate that the Japanese government has decided to make such a drastic and punitive decision based on the biased information and campaigning of a group of profit-driven leftwing lawyers. The Unification Church is a legitimate religion and its members deserve freedom to express and practice their beliefs.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 20% of the global population will identify as "religiously unaffiliated" in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: US Must Prepare Simultaneous Wars With China, Russia
A new bipartisan congressional report released Thursday calls on the US to step up its military readiness for potential simultaneous wars with China and Russia and to expand its conventional and nuclear arms arsenal.
The 160-page report, issued by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the US, argues that Washington is "ill-prepared" and lacks a comprehensive strategy to deal with the prospect of facing two states having the same nuclear power as US forces.
The panel added that the US must fully fund its 30-year nuclear weapons modernization program that started in 2010, including the production of additional stealth bombers and new nuclear submarines, to "deter and defeat both adversaries simultaneously."
Establishment-critical narrative
The Congressional report sounds more like a military-industrial complex public relations stunt than a serious study. Its conclusions are irresponsible given that any decision to boost the number of US strategic nuclear weapons risks triggering a new nuclear arms race with China and Russia. Instead of following the archaic Cold War logic with unpredictable consequences for the US and the world, it would be in the US national security interest to pursue arms control and disarmament diplomacy.
Pro-establishment narrative
The report is a powerful reminder that the US needs to adjust its strategic posture and strengthen its nuclear deterrent given China and Russia's nuclear modernization push and aggressive foreign policies. If Washington hopes to protect the rules-based international order, US nuclear strategy must remain effective in a two-nuclear-peer arena, which also requires higher defense spending. The Cold War teaches that autocratic regimes understand only the language of deterrence.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the next "Great Power" war will occur by July 2048, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
GOP House Speaker Race: Scalise out; Jordan New Nominee
Republicans in the House of Representatives have selected Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) to be their nominee in the party's latest bid to elect a House speaker. His nomination follows intensive discussions by the GOP and now begins what could be a challenging selection process for the Ohio lawmaker.
This comes as House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) on Thursday announced the end of his bid to become the chamber's speaker, citing individuals with “personal interest[s]” who refused to back him.
Previously, Scalise on Wednesday defeated Jordan (R-Ohio) 113-99 as part of an internal party contest for the nomination. Scalise would have needed a majority of 217 on the House floor to be elected speaker, and Jordan must reach the same figure.
Republican narrative
Scalise made the right move backing out, it's just too bad he didn’t do it sooner because then we could have figured out where the rest of the caucus stands on Jordan or the alternatives. Jordan could be a perfect fit for this role, and whether it’s him or ultimately someone else, Republicans very soon intend to converge on a solution.
Democratic narrative
All Republicans have done since McCarthy's ousting is fight amongst themselves. Such embarrassing behavior is not fit for any office, let alone within the House. Meanwhile, Democrats remain a unified force within the US, which should pay off in the long run — particularly the next time voters go to the polls to pick a new House majority.
Nerd narrative
There is a 54% chance that Jim Jordan will be elected Speaker of the House, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Human Rights Watch: Israel Used White Phosphorus Munitions in Gaza and Lebanon
Israel has used white phosphorus munitions in recent attacks on both Gaza and Lebanon, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in a report issued Thursday.
While the use of white phosphorus — a self-igniting chemical that burns at extremely high temperatures — is permitted under international law when used on battlefields, its use against a civilian population is generally considered a war crime.
HRW said it had "verified videos taken in Lebanon and Gaza on October 10 and 11, 2023, respectively, showing multiple airbursts of artillery-fired white phosphorus over the Gaza City port and two rural locations along the Israel-Lebanon border." It added that it had interviewed two people in Gaza whose descriptions of the strikes were consistent with the use of white phosphorus.
Pro-establishment narrative
White phosphorus has legitimate military uses. More details — such as the intended target of the alleged attacks as well as the accuracy of these reports — need to be established before we rush to the conclusion that Israel is committing war crimes.
Establishment-critical narrative
Gaza is one of the most densely populated places in the world. Israel's use of white phosphorus is clearly a war crime in this context, violating international law on unnecessarily putting civilians at risk of harm.
Nerd narrative
There is a 30% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Russia Launches Major Offensive in Eastern Ukraine
Russia has this week launched a major assault on the city of Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk region, reportedly mobilizing thousands of troops and columns of armored vehicles for the attack.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, a US military-affiliated think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the report, Russia has taken roughly 1.7 square miles (4.5 square km) of territory since launching the operation on Oct. 10.
However, the assault has not come without costs for Russia. The Institute said: "Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have likely lost at least a battalion tactical group’s worth of armored vehicles in offensive operations around Avdiivka. A reliable X [formerly] (Twitter) user observed on Oct. 12 that Ukrainian forces destroyed 33 Russian armored vehicles and 15 tanks since Oct. 10."
Pro-Ukraine narrative
With Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin's birthday on Oct. 7, Ukraine's intelligence services were aware of the coming attack on Avdiivka — meant as a present for him. This, along with the fact that forces told the locals of their plans in their downtime, meant Ukraine's forces were fully prepared and are now repelling and destroying the enemy attack.
Pro-Russia narrative
In an offensive supported by aircraft, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems, Russia continues to improve its positions in the Avdiivka direction and continues to gain ground.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US and Qatar Block Iran from $6B Fund for Prisoner Swap
According to a US official, the US and Qatar have come to an agreement that Iran will not be able to access the $6B in Iranian funds that were unblocked as part of a prisoner swap in September.
In September, the US — via negotiations mediated by Qatar and represented by Switzerland — agreed to swap five Iranian citizens and transfer $6B from South Korea to be held by Qatar on Iran's behalf in exchange for five US citizens.
The official's claim, having spoken on the condition of anonymity, comes as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed on Thursday that, "None of the funds that have now gone to Qatar have actually been spent or accessed in any way by Iran."
Pro-establishment narrative
Iran must be treated as a threat, which is why this is a sound policy by both Qatar and the US. Iran continues to not only fund Hamas but also Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as various Russian mercenaries. Alongside the clear success of returning five US citizens, the US must remind Iran that its international and domestic behavior must align with international values.
Establishment-critical narrative
Rumors concerning Iran's freed funds are baseless. The US does not hold the power to block the funds that rightfully belong to Tehran. The spreading of such a narrative merely discredits the legitimacy of any news outlet that decides to promote the story.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that the US will rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
French Police Fire Water Cannon, Teargas at Banned Pro-Palestinian Protests
Police in Paris used teargas and water cannons to disperse a 3K-strong pro-Palestinian demonstration at Place de la République, where protesters waved Palestinian flags and chanted "Israel murderer" on Thursday, making 10 arrests. Ten others were also arrested at another rally in Lille.
This comes as the French government announced a systematic ban on all pro-Palestinian protests due to their alleged potential to generate public order disturbances, with Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin stating that the organization of these protests "should lead to arrests."
According to Darmanin, more than 100 antisemitic cases have been reported in the country since Hamas attacked Israel last Saturday, prompting Pres. Emmanuel Macron to urge French citizens to remain united and not to "confuse the Palestinian cause with the justification of terrorism."
Narrative A
The Israel-Hamas conflict can stoke tensions in France — home to some of Europe's largest Muslim and Jewish populations. While Israel defends itself, the French government is dutybound to ensure the conflict doesn't destabilize the country. Antisemitism and terrorism must be condemned, irrespective of who perpetuates it.
Narrative B
The ban is a threat to freedom of expression. Europe, particularly France, is governed by civil law, which means every citizen has the right to take a stand and protest. It's unfair to forbid natives from supporting the Palestinian people when no such restrictions have been announced for people standing by Israel.
Narrative C
Israel is at war with Hamas, not with Palestine. However, the definition between pro-Palestine and pro-Hamas is blurred in the latest conflict. While the protestors must refrain from glorifying the terrorists, the governments mustn't set a dangerous precedent by threatening the full force of law.
Nerd narrative
There's a 55% chance that Hamas will lose control of Gaza before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Sen. Menendez Indicted as 'Foreign Agent'
On Thursday, US Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was charged with conspiring to act as an agent of the Egyptian government for many years while he was chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Previously, Menendez and his wife, Nadine, were indicted on federal charges that they accepted bribes in exchange for crafting policy favorable to the Egyptian government.
The new charge, which was included in a revised indictment, accuses Menendez of failing to register with the US Justice Dept. (DOJ) as a foreign agent while allegedly working on behalf of Egyptian military and intelligence officials between 2018 and 2022.
Democratic narrative
Everyone in the US is innocent until proven guilty, but these charges against Menendez are too serious for him to be able to still carry out his duties in the Senate. An overwhelming number of his Democratic colleagues have called for him to resign. It says something about Republicans — who are likely looking to benefit from this — that they haven’t done the same.
Republican narrative
Calls for the senator's resignation are years too late. Menendez, who similarly faced corruption charges in 2015, retained his party's support and was re-elected in 2018. The only thing that the Democrats' outrage today demonstrates is that they were willfully blind to his misconduct until it no longer benefited them.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 51% chance that Menendez will still represent New Jersey in the Senate on Feb. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israeli Troops Conduct 'Localized Raids,' Palestinians Evacuate Northern Gaza
The Israeli military stated that its troops and tanks carried out localized raids into Gaza on Friday, the first announcement of a shift from an air war to ground operations to attack rocket crews and try to locate hostages taken by the ruling Hamas militant group.
Additionally, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that widespread air strikes were being carried out against many Hamas sites across the Gaza Strip shortly after the group claimed responsibility for a volley of rockets fired toward central Israel.
This comes as Palestinians in northern Gaza have begun a mass exodus after Israel urged more than 1M civilians to evacuate toward the south of the densely-populated enclave, in a further indication of a looming Israeli ground offensive.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel has lived up to its commitment to protect civilians in armed conflict, calling residents in northern Gaza to move south and not to approach the border with Israel. Yet, Hamas has ordered civilians not to flee so they can be used as human shields to protect its military infrastructure in civilian areas while terrorists hide in and under residential buildings.
Pro-Palestine narrative
This has all the makings of a second Nakba catastrophe by forcing millions of Palestinians to head towards the border with Egypt and return to northern Gaza only when they are told so. Netanyahu is dangerously trying to provoke a regional war to change the strategic reality of the Middle East, so this campaign should be stopped on humanitarian and geopolitical grounds.
Nerd narrative
There's a 65% chance that Israeli forces will reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before Nov. 7, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.