SCOTUS Majority Skeptical of South Carolina Gerrymandering Claim
The US Supreme Court's (SCOTUS) conservative 6-3 majority on Wednesday seemed skeptical of the idea that the South Carolina legislature drew their congressional district maps based on race rather than party affiliation. The district in question, from which the GOP-led legislature removed thousands of Black voters, includes the city and county of Charleston, which is represented by Republican US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.).
State lawmakers approved the map in 2022, prompting the NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People) to sue. A federal three-judge panel subsequently sided with the plaintiffs, ruling that the redrawing deliberately moved 30K black residents from Charleston County away from the district to reduce its black population to a "target" of 17%.
Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that there was "no direct" evidence that race had predominated in the decision-making process, no "odd-shaped" districts were drawn and that there existed a "wealth of political data" to justify the map. Furthermore, Justice Samuel Alito claimed the lower court relied on erroneous expert testimony, with Justice Neil Gorsuch adding that there was "nothing suspicious."
Democratic narrative
Charleston had elected a Republican in every election since 1980 until a Democrat was able to capture a slim victory in 2018. How, then, could race not have played a role if Nancy Mace was subsequently able to win by 14 points after 62% of Black voters from the district were removed? The South Carolina GOP knows that African Americans vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic Party — which is why they chose to rid the district of their voting power.
Republican narrative
The race-based analysis for South Carolina's map is flawed. Redrawing maps based on party affiliation is allowable, so when lawmakers conduct redistricting, they're likely to end up moving large groups of one race or the other. The Democratic Party engages in more than its fair share of this practice as well.
Cynical narrative
Both Democrats and Republicans gerrymander massively, making American democracy far from fair. Election laws should change.
Australian Journalist Released From Chinese Prison
Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced Wednesday that journalist Cheng Lei had been reunited with her family in Melbourne, after spending three years in a Chinese jail on espionage charges.
Until her arrest on Aug. 13, 2020, the now 48-year-old was working as a business reporter for China's state-owned English-language TV broadcaster CGTN.
Earlier, Beijing had stated that the Australian national had been deported after she served a two-year-and-eleven-month sentence for illegally sharing state secrets overseas.
Anti-China narrative
The nightmare is finally over for Cheng Lei, who spent over a thousand days imprisoned in one of China's infamous black jails, where she wasn't allowed to receive more than ten hours of sunlight a year or speak with her daughters. Lei's conviction and mistreatment during custody further exemplifies the oppressive tactics routinely employed by the Chinese regime.
Pro-China narrative
Cheng Lei was deported from China after serving the full length of her sentence. Her conviction by the Chinese judicial system was a strong sign that anyone who violates Chinese laws can't expect to dodge punishment based on their nationality. Lei's detention and release have nothing to do with bilateral relations with Australia.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that China will score at least 5.70 on the Human Freedom Index in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Saudi Crown Prince, Iran President Speak For First Time Since Ties Restored
Iranian Pres. Ebrahim Raisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday held their first direct talks since Tehran and Riyadh resumed diplomatic relations, discussing the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas.
At the initiative of Iran's Raisi, they discussed the current military situation in Gaza and its surroundings. According to Saudi state media, the Crown Prince reaffirmed that Riyadh has actively engaged with all international and regional parties to halt the escalation.
Bin Salman and Raisi, who restored diplomatic ties under a Chinese-brokered deal in March after seven years of hostility, reportedly also expressed concerns about Israeli operations in Gaza.
Establishment-critical narrative
The historic phone call between bin Salman and Raisi is a powerful sign of solidarity over concerns about the impacts on Palestine. While the West condemns the atrocities being carried out in Israel, it largely ignores the long history of Israeli treatment of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Pro-establishment narrative
Saudi Arabia and Iran may invoke unity, but in reality, they only use Palestine as a political tool. Tehran isn't pro-Palestinian but merely anti-American and anti-Semitic, while Riyadh has had numerous chances to advocate a solution to Palestinian problems, but this doesn't serve its national interests. This is especially so since Riyadh sought to normalize relations with Israel — Iran's archrival.
Nerd narrative
There is a 40% chance that Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
White House 'Near the End of the Rope' on Ukraine Aid
The White House on Wednesday approved another $200M of military aid to Ukraine, but National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that it's "coming near to the end of the rope" on how much more assistance the Biden administration can give.
With the speaker position still unfilled by the Republican majority in the US House of Representatives, Congress cannot introduce or pass new legislation that would allow the White House to send additional assistance to Ukraine outside of what's already been approved. The same is true for Israel, whom the US pledged to arm following Hamas' attack this weekend.
Asked by reporters at a White House briefing if the US is on the cusp of running out of allocated funds, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said: "In the near term, we've got appropriations and authorities for both Ukraine and for Israel. But you don’t want to be trying to bake in long-term support when you’re at the end of the rope. And in Ukraine — on the Ukraine funding — we’re coming near to the end of the rope."
Left narrative
Due to the instability in Congress created by Republicans, America's future assistance to Ukraine is now in jeopardy. This creates a risk that Ukraine will no longer be able to meaningfully defend itself from Russian aggression. Republicans need to end this political brinksmanship immediately.
Right narrative
Irrespective of the next House speaker, the front lines in Ukraine have barely shifted in months of fighting despite over $113B of US funding. Americans are right to ask what the strategy is and how the war will eventually be brought to a close. The US cannot be expected to continually throw money at the war, particularly with problems at home and with the national debt spiraling to over $5T.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
GOP Nominates Steve Scalise for House Speaker
Following a party ballot, House Republicans have nominated current majority leader and Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) to be the chamber's next speaker, following Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) removal last week.
Scalise, 58, secured the nomination after beating House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan by 113-99 votes. Scalise was first elected into the House in 2008, and later became chairman of the Republican Study Group in 2012 as well as House majority whip in 2017.
Prior to 2008, Scalise served in the Louisiana House of Representatives between 1996 and 2007. He will require at least 217 votes within the entirety of the House of Representatives in order to be elected as speaker.
Republican narrative
It's time now to proceed. 217 votes must be either found in favor of Scalise, or Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) must be given the appropriate powers to run the House in the short term. The situations concerning Israel, Ukraine, and a federal shutdown must be addressed — there seems to be a path forward now for the next chapter of GOP-led House leadership.
Democratic narrative
Despite Scalise's nomination, Republicans in the chamber are in fact bitterly divided and the Louisiana lawmaker's power seems to have already been undermined by a lack of party consensus. With the pro-Jordan faction potentially refusing to accept defeat, Americans may be in for a repeat of the chaos of January. The GOP needs to figure this out with so many simmering crises.
Nerd narrative
There is an 80% chance that Steve Scalise will be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel: Blockade Will Not Be Lifted Until All Hostages Are Freed
After Israel announced a "complete siege" on Gaza in response to the attack launched by Hamas over the weekend, Israel's energy minister said on Thursday that the blockade would not be lifted until all Israeli hostages are freed.
Some 150 people are believed to have been taken hostage by Hamas in Gaza. A number of officials — including Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and members of the International Committee of the Red Cross — are reportedly in negotiations with the group in an attempt to secure the hostages' release.
"Humanitarian aid to Gaza?" Israel Katz, the Israeli energy minister, said on X, formerly known as Twitter. "No electrical switch will be turned on, no water pump will be opened and no fuel truck will enter until the Israeli abductees are returned home. Humanitarianism for humanitarianism. And no one can preach morality to us."
Pro-Israel narrative
Following the scale of atrocities carried out by Hamas in Israel, Tel Aviv has every right to defend itself from terrorists, including taking proactive actions in Gaza to ensure these kinds of catastrophic attacks never happen again. Israel will not rest until the Hamas threat is eliminated.
Pro-Palestine narrative
The actions carried out by Israel are not singling out Hamas alone, but are exacting a collective punishment on Palestinians as a whole. An already-impoverished population of 2.3M people is now facing a humanitarian catastrophe of an epic scale.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Israel will lift the blockade on electricity, food, gasoline and medicine by February 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Convicted Criminals Could Avoid Jail as Prisons Fill Up
According to a Times UK report, Lord Edis, the presiding judge for England and Wales, said that starting next week, the sentencing of criminals who are on bail should be delayed and some existing prisoners may be released early due to an expanding prison population.
The order, which reportedly came from a meeting between Edis and other senior judges, said that cells in magistrates' courts are to be used to hold suspects of the most serious crimes. However, one senior judge said that convicted rapists of children under 13 could still remain on bail.
This comes as the prison population in the UK reached 88,016 last week, up more than 6.5K in a year and closing in on the maximum capacity of roughly 88,670. In response, the government last year announced the emergency use of 400 police cells through Operation Safeguard and, more recently, said it would try to rent prison cells in foreign countries.
Narrative A
This dangerous situation has been years in the making, with the MoJ and other authorities having predicted the rise in the prison population as early as 2018. The government's claims of investing in so-called "modern" prison places are largely unfulfilled, with 75% of them existing only on blueprints. Operation Safeguard, too, is inadequate, which is why violent criminals will begin walking the streets again if real prison infrastructure isn't built immediately.
Narrative B
While it's true that less than half of the government's planned new prisons have been built, 5.5K have been, which itself is enough to hold the current number of convicts. Ministers are also working with European partners to rent prison space abroad, which will be a unique but effective tool. No one is sitting idly as England and Wales become overrun by prisoners — measures have been taken and communities will be kept safe as usual.
Goldman Sachs Sues Malaysia Over 1MDB Settlement
Goldman Sachs on Wednesday filed a complaint in a British court for arbitration against Malaysia amid a disagreement over a 2020 settlement tied to the role of the Wall Street bank in the multibillion-dollar 1MDB investment-fund scandal, the biggest foreign bribery case in US enforcement history.
This comes as Goldman argued that the Southeast Asian country has violated its obligations to appropriately credit assets against the guarantee provided in the agreement and to recover other assets, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim urging the firm to honor its settlement earlier this year.
Speaking at a business conference in Singapore last month, Ibrahim vowed to chase a new, tougher settlement from Goldman Sachs, calling the 2020 agreement unfair but refraining from saying that the government would file a lawsuit against the bank.
Narrative A
Goldman Sachs has every right to demand arbitration in this case, as the government of Malaysia has, in bad faith, tried to take advantage of its asymmetrical power by demanding a new settlement with more onerous penalties as well as by not being transparent with regard to the recovery of looted assets.
Narrative B
It's clear that Goldman Sachs has sued Malaysia only to divert attention away from its obligation to hand over the agreed $250M interim payment, as the company has failed to recover the stipulated amount of $500M two years from the signing of the deal. After an entire year requiring deadline extensions, apparently in good faith, Goldman has shown its malicious intention.
Cenk Uygur Announces Presidential Run to Challenge Biden
On Wednesday, Cenk Uygur, the founder of the progressive news outlet The Young Turks, announced he will challenge Pres. Joe Biden for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.
Uygur, who has often urged Biden to get out of the race, is a naturalized US citizen who was born in Istanbul. He plans to challenge the Constitution’s "Natural Born Citizen" clause in court.
On his campaign website, Uygur wrote that the upcoming election is the "most important of our lifetimes." And on X, formerly Twitter, Uygur accused Biden of not being able to make his own case for reelection despite success during his term.
Democratic narrative
Putting aside the question of whether Uygur is eligible to serve as president, Biden’s unpopularity in some polling hasn’t stopped the President from dominating the Democratic field. Even someone with the name recognition and financial backing of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. couldn’t gain traction and opted for an independent bid. Uygur’s heart might be in the right place, but looking at the polling numbers, this primary is already over.
Republican narrative
Despite Biden’s poor polling against Trump, Democrats have closed ranks around him. And now they’re left with the media personality Uygur thinking he has a chance to challenge the incumbent president. Uygur isn't eligible to serve in the Oval Office, and even if he was he barely registered any support in a Congressional race and has no chance on the national stage. All signs point to the eventual resounding defeat of Biden by the GOP.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 90% chance that Biden will be the Democratic nominee in the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Poland and Czech Republic Extend Border Controls with Slovakia
Poland and the Czech Republic have announced that they will extend temporary controls on their borders with Slovakia into November as European countries seek to curb illegal immigration.
Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminsky reportedly confirmed that the government will extend the border controls until Nov. 2, while the Czech government announced a similar extension Wednesday evening.
Temporary controls on the Polish-Slovakian border began on Oct. 4, and Kaminski said that the results have been positive with demonstratable effects. He doubled down on Poland’s immigration policy saying, "There will be no illegal migration routes through Poland."
Right narrative
Eastern European countries such as Poland are providing a great example to Western countries grappling with the migration crisis stemming from Africa and the Middle East. Citizens across Europe and other Western countries are fed up with the endless stream of illegal migration and the moral lecturing from their leaders. Poland doesn't deal with terrorism and gang violence and has seen a booming economy over the last few decades. Poland is one of the few European countries that has the backbone to handle migration appropriately.
Left narrative
Authoritarian demagogues in Poland and other European countries are running campaigns based on fear and discrimination in order to win elections. While some politicians try to disguise their bigotry by claiming anti-immigration policies are a matter of national security, far-right parties are running on a platform of xenophobia. Europe should focus on helping migrants instead of demonizing them.