New Poll Shows 10-Point Lead for Trump Over Biden

New Poll Shows 10-Point Lead for Trump Over Biden
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The Spin

Democratic narrative

All signs are pointing toward a close race, so the idea that Biden might wind up losing by double digits is preposterous. Although a close race should be a warning sign to the incumbent president, remember that Biden was underestimated in 2020, and many thought Democrats would get trounced in the 2022 midterms. Throughout his career, Biden has been a triumphant underdog.

Republican narrative

The president’s approval rating has been dropping precipitously for months, so the fact that he might be behind Trump by 10 or more points at this stage shouldn't be a surprise. Results of other questions in this poll show that he’s failing as president. One has to wonder if Democrats might look for a different nominee.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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