Global Warming Set To Break 1.5°C Limit By 2027
According to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization, there is a 66% chance that the world will breach the 1.5°C global warming limit before 2027 and, research suggests, with increasing frequency in the years afterwards.
The El Niño pattern developing toward the end of this year, along with an increase in human-caused emissions, are likely to fuel the rise in global temperatures, which scientists predict will be temporary.
The report, titled Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, warns that there is a 98% chance at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record.
Narrative A
While we are likely to breach the 1.5°C warming limit, it would be dangerous to encourage public fear or despair over such a development, as one or even a few years over 1.5°C would not be the end of the world. Painting it as such would make it politically impossible to combat the real climate threat; prolonged periods of more than 1.5°C, or worse, permanency at those temperatures. There's no need to panic, as doomsayers have unsuccessfully predicted climate disasters for decades.
Narrative B
Humans have failed our planet and are continuing to fail our future generations. The truth is that we either stop our greenhouse gas emissions or we let the planet disintegrate. We are facing a climate emergency and, if we choose to continue on this path, it is inevitable that humankind will be forced to adjust to a new, catastrophic form of normality.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that there will be at least 3.6°C of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Turkey: Opposition Questions Fairness of Sunday's Polls
On Wednesday, Turkey's main opposition party said it had filed complaints over suspected irregularities over thousands of ballots in Sunday's elections, in which Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan performed better than expected.
Muharrem Erkek, deputy chair of the Republican People's Party (CHP), said the CHP had formally raised objections to over 2,269 ballot boxes for the presidential election while conceding it would not change the overall results.
In addition, Erkek claimed votes for Kılıçdaroğlu were incorrectly allocated to Muharrem İnce, who pulled out of the presidential race three days before the vote and were eventually allegedly handed to Erdoğan.
Narrative A
The opposition camp is timidly crying rigged election to try and appease their voters, which have been deceived by unsupported claims that Kılıçdaroğlu — who lost 11 elections in the past — would outright win the presidential race against Erdoğan, as well as to avoid criticism for its foiled unethical campaign. After Erdoğan dominated the first round, it would not be surprising if his votes reached record levels in the runoff.
Narrative B
Even though these irregularities may not have affected the final results, they are part of a broader effort to add fraud to the Turkish vote — directly or indirectly. Over and above Erdoğan's nebulous actions in past elections, his government has changed electoral law in the run-up to this presidential contest to randomly select judges on the electoral board and allow ministers to run for parliament while in office. It's time for democracy to regain control of Turkish politics.
Nerd narrative
There's a 77% chance that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Turkey, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
World Leaders Push For Russia, Ukraine Peace Deal
As the Russia-Ukraine war approaches the 15-month mark, leaders from across the world this week pushed for a diplomatic solution to bring the conflict to a close.
On Tuesday, South African Pres. Cyril Ramaphosa announced that both Russia and Ukraine had agreed to meet a group of African leaders — consisting of his country along with Senegal, Uganda, Egypt, the Republic of the Congo, and Zambia — with the aim of seeking a political solution to the war.
Commenting on the talks, Ramaphosa said that "discussions with the two leaders" revealed they were "both ready" for discourse about "how this conflict can be brought to an end," adding that a route towards settling the conflict would depend on "the discussions that will be held." He also stated that the US and the UK had expressed "cautious" support for the plan, while the UN had been briefed on developments.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine welcomes efforts to bring peace and stop Russia's aggression. However, Kyiv cannot accept any peace proposal that involves giving up its own territory or enabling Russia to pause the conflict just so that it can restrengthen before enacting another strategic attack.
Pro-Russia narrative
There are many countries offering to mediate a peace settlement. Russia welcomes all initiatives aimed at bringing a resolution to the conflict, as long as Russia's primary concerns that led it to embark on the special military operation are addressed.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance the size of Ukraine's army will be at least 250K as a result of ceasefire or treaty negotiations with Russia, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
HIV-Prevention Drug to Be Made in South Africa
The Indian drug company Cipla has confirmed that an affordable generic version of its HIV drug cabotegravir (CAB-LA) will be manufactured in South Africa for the first time. The twice-monthly jab is expected to lower the risk of contraction for millions of at-risk Africans.
The announcement comes a year after the UN's Unitaid announced the rollout of an HIV-prevention injection pilot program to provide long-lasting protection to transgender communities in Brazil and to young girls and women in South Africa.
In June 2022, the World Health Organization advised African nations to begin approving injectable prevention drugs as the agency observed an increase in global infections. In October 2022, Zimbabwe became the first country on the continent to approve injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).
Narrative A
In the current upside-down world we live in, poor African countries pay up to 30 times the amount for lifesaving medicine than wealthy nations like the US and UK. This is in part due to the continent's history of purchasing new drugs instead of repurposed ones, but that doesn't mean international bodies can't step in to help. To avoid corrupt price gauging, the global community must cooperate with the aim of providing the best medicines at the lowest cost for poor to medium-income nations.
Narrative B
The COVID pandemic showed how dangerous relying on other countries for medical aid can be, which is why Africa needs a new public health order. Alongside its increased vulnerability from a lack of funding and purchasing power, it also faces hoarding of vital medications by wealthy nations and growing vaccine nationalism. Africa must strengthen public health institutions, increase investments in its healthcare, and prioritize training for the next generation of healthcare workers.
Montana Passes Complete TikTok Ban
Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte on Wednesday signed a bill making Montana the first US state to completely ban the social media app TikTok.
Under this law, which will take effect Jan. 1, 2024, Google and Apple’s app stores will be forbidden from offering the short-video app and could face fines of $10K per violation per day. Individuals who use the app, however, won’t be penalized.
Gianforte accused the Chinese government of using TikTok to “spy on Americans, violate their privacy, and collect their personal, private, and sensitive information.” Although there’s no concrete evidence China has done this through TikTok — which is owned by parent company ByteDance — under PRC law the government could access this information.
Narrative A
With this ban, Montana is trampling on the Constitution and most notably the First Amendment. TikTok is an important source of expression and information gathering for thousands of Montanans, and denying US citizens the right to use it is akin to making them live under a repressive regime.
Narrative B
TikTok is a major threat to national security, and it’s up to officials in the US to protect their constituents from surveillance by the Chinese Communist Party. Until ByteDance sells TikTok, the app will continue to rightfully face increased restrictions in Montana and beyond, but a sale to a US company would solve this issue.
Nerd narrative
There’s an 18% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Telecom Giant to Cut 55K Jobs by 2030
The UK's largest broadband and mobile provider, BT Group, has said that it will cut up to 55K jobs — potentially more than 40% of its workforce — by 2030 as it completes its fiber network rollout and adapts to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI).
BT currently employs roughly 130K staff globally and 80K in the UK alone, with approximately 30K of them being contractors. The company added that 10K of those laid off will be replaced by AI.
As the broadband provider switches its network from copper to fiber, it won't need as many staff to build and maintain its networks, and it projects that AI will take over customer service jobs.
Narrative A
While it seems scary, the replacement of human workers with AI is nothing to be scared of. BT will replace some humans with computers, but BT says it will use AI for mundane jobs such as detecting software bugs and fixing them. Just as machines replaced people in plowing farms and assembling widgets in factories, this, too, will lead to the emergence of new advanced jobs for people to take up while computers are in charge of the grunt work.
Narrative B
The AI revolution is not like the industrial or tech revolutions of the past, and governments should be prepared to deal with that reality. If 300M jobs are replaced in the coming decade — as Goldman Sachs predicts —and there's no way to stop it, then our leaders should work to ensure those at the bottom get a piece of the financial boom. AI may very well take away employment, but it shouldn't take away livelihoods and the human experience we all deserve.
Report: DeSantis to Enter 2024 Presidential Race Next Week
Next week, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will reportedly file formal paperwork with the Federal Election Commission declaring his much-anticipated candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
This comes as rumors about an upcoming announcement have circulated after his financial backers were invited to a meeting in Miami on May 24-25, with donors expecting to be involved in fundraising calls on behalf of the campaign.
A "soft launch" is likely to take place as early as Wednesday, with a formal announcement expected the following week in his hometown of Dunedin. The planning, however, could remain a moving target as DeSantis is known for last-minute changes.
Pro-Trump narrative
Republicans mustn't be fooled into voting for DeSantis; he's a deep state puppet who attempting to integrate the MAGA movement back into the GOP establishment to restore the Bush dynasty. It's outrageous that someone who endorsed the Russia collusion hoax since day one is now running on an "America First" platform. It should also be remembered how much DeSantis was dependent on Trump for his Florida re-election success.
Anti-Trump narrative
The donor class within the GOP is looking to pass the torch to the more stable Ron DeSantis while still capturing the support of the MAGA base. After three successive losses, it is time for Republicans to pivot to winning candidates, and Ron DeSantis is the most captivating politician to challenge Biden in 2024.
Democratic narrative
Ironically, Trump seems to need DeSantis in the GOP primaries to galvanize and re-energize MAGA rhetoric. Democrats should be cautious about relishing the forthcoming boxing match on the GOP side — both Trump and DeSantis have dangerous authoritarian impulses that President Biden will need to contend with.
Nerd narrative
There's a 28% chance that Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Italy: At least 13 dead and 20K Homeless in Flooding
As of Thursday, at least 13 people have been killed and 20K displaced as Italy experiences its worst flooding in nearly a century.
Torrential rain in Italy's northern Emilia-Romagna region has triggered floods and landslides, with some regions having received half their average annual rainfall in only 36 hours, leading rivers to burst their banks and flood surrounding towns and farmland.
The flooding has reportedly seen at least 23 rivers overflow, impacting over 48 towns and resulting in at least 280 landslides so far.
Narrative A
Italy is a country that is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and these recent extreme weather events go to show just how deadly the effects of global warming are. These extreme weather events are just going to get worse, and the government needs to step up and prepare for them.
Narrative B
While the impacts of these floods are tragic, there's no evidence that climate change is to blame, as these types of catastrophes are usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with it. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century will be at least 8.84% of world GDP, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
SCOTUS Dismisses Social Media Liability Cases
In two SCOTUS decisions Thursday — Twitter v. Taamneh and Gonzalez v. Google — the US high court ruled that social media companies don't need special protections to avoid liability for hosting terrorist content.
US relatives of Nawras Alassaf, a Jordanian man murdered during a New Year’s Eve attack in Istanbul in 2017, sought damages from Twitter for providing what they argued was "substantial assistance" to an "act of international terrorism" that left Alassaf and 38 others dead.
The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals allowed the lawsuit to continue, though SCOTUS ruled unanimously that the plaintiffs failed to show that the companies "gave such knowing and substantial assistance to ISIS that they culpably participated in the Reina attack."
Pro-establishment narrative
These decisions aren't just a win for tech companies but for the concept of free speech as a whole. If companies had to worry about liability for every post that potentially incited violence, they would have to resort to widespread censorship of certain topics and speakers. The internet is full of unimaginable amounts of speech, and it would be impossible and unethical for a corporation to curate the vast market of free expression.
Establishment-critical narrative
Forget telecom companies; there should be a focus on the similarities between tech platforms and newspapers, which can be held liable. As was seen in Sarah Palin's failed defamation suit against the New York Times in 2020, it's very difficult to sue media publishers, though not impossible. Tech companies should be held to the same standard — repealing Section 230 would allow them to retain most of the protections they've held for the past 30 years while also protecting victims, companies, and viewpoint diversity.
Russia Agrees to Extend Black Sea Grain Agreement
Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced on Wednesday that the Ukraine Black Sea grain deal was extended for two more months — just one day before Russia could have exited the agreement that allows Ukraine to ship grain across the Black Sea to other countries.
Brokered by the UN and Turkey on July 22, 2022, the Black Sea deal aimed to bring Ukrainian grain and Russian food and fertilizer to countries struggling with food insecurity to break a disruption in supply and fight global food insecurity.
The agreement was initially set for 120 days but was twice extended in November and March, despite objections from Russia. UN Sec. General António Guterres said the agreement was “good news for the world” but added that “outstanding issues remain” regarding Russia’s demands to continue the deal.
Pro-Russia narrative
Despite persistent sanctions and the West failing to uphold its end of the bargain, Russia has taken the moral high ground by agreeing to extend this deal. Meanwhile, the UN and Ukraine appear less interested in nations battling food insecurity as most of the Ukrainian grain continues to go to wealthy countries that can, in turn, line Kyiv’s pockets.
Anti-Russia narrative
Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea Initiative was no altruistic gesture to the hungry. It was a calculated decision by Moscow to appease its allies, mainly China, who benefit greatly from the pact. Russia tried to leverage starvation to gain concessions from the international community, but couldn’t follow through with it for external reasons. Any humanitarian motives by the Kremlin are suspect at best.