Biden Admin. Grants Mountain Valley Pipeline Permit
On Monday night, the Biden administration permitted the $6.6B Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline to run through the Jefferson National Forest which runs between West Virginia and Virginia.
This comes after the US Forest Service earlier in the day reissued its approval to construct the long-delayed pipeline across a 3.5-mile (5.6 km) forest corridor in Monroe County, W.Va., and Giles and Montgomery Counties,Va.
The Biden administration supports Senator Joe Manchin's (R-W.Va.) bill to speed fossil fuel and renewable energy projects, saying it would aid renewable energy companies to reap the benefit of billions of dollars of tax credits provided in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Pro-establishment narrative
The construction of new wind, solar, and other renewable energy projects is part of the Biden admin.'s ambitious climate agenda. As extreme weather events strain the US energy system, adequate natural gas pipeline — such as the Mountain Valley Pipeline — and transmission capacity are critical to maintaining energy reliability, availability, and security. This project will help to increase America's energy security.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Mountain Valley Pipeline violates regulations to control erosion and sedimentation, threatens endangered species and waterways, and can potentially destroy sensitive land and ecosystems. It will generate tens of millions of metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions each year. The US must stop its construction if Biden's top priority is to constrain global warming and advance environmental justice. This project puts the thirst for energy ahead of the health of our planet.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that fossil fuels will make up less than 50% of the United States' primary energy consumption by August 2043, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nigeria: 4 Killed In Attack On US Embassy Convoy
On Tuesday, gunmen attacked a convoy of US embassy staff near the town of Atani in Nigeria’s southeastern Anambra State, killing four people and abducting three others, according to local police and US officials.
There were no US citizens in the convoy, which was on a humanitarian mission, the Anambra Police Command said, announcing that the gunmen killed two mobile police officers and two consulate employees before setting their bodies and vehicles ablaze.
While security forces were dispatched to the scene, the assailants managed to kidnap two police officers and a driver, a police spokesman said, adding that a rescue and recovery operation has been underway as of Tuesday evening.
Establishment-critical narrative
The horrific assault once again highlights the enormous challenges facing Nigeria's security authorities. However, while the motive for this attack remains unclear, the US Embassy needs to answer the obvious question of why it allowed a convoy on a humanitarian mission to enter violence-torn Anambra without consulting local police or any security agency. Such negligent actions hamper the battle against insurgents in the country.
Pro-establishment narrative
The tragic incident must be fully investigated by Nigeria's authorities but will have no lasting impact on the close US-Nigeria relations. Rather, Washington stands ready to further strengthen mutually beneficial ties with the new Bola Tinubu administration. Nigeria deserves inclusive leadership that takes into account the interests of all its citizens, and comprehensive bilateral security cooperation will contribute to the country's stability and prosperity.
Narrative C
The latest attacks illustrate that Nigeria's incoming government under Tinubu, a Muslim from the northeast, will face daunting challenges in managing various armed conflicts and deep societal divisions. While ethnic and religious tensions in the north-central region are likely to intensify, violence in the north is more likely to diminish, whereas Biafra separatists are set to continue their armed campaign for independence in the southeast. The security crisis will continue to shape Nigeria's future.
Truss Visits Taiwan, Urges West to Counter China
Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss on Wednesday called for the West to choose between appeasing Beijing or taking action to prevent war, arguing that a new Cold War has already started.
Speaking at the Taiwanese think tank Prospect Foundation as part of her five-day visit to the self-ruling island, she urged free nations to commit themselves to a free Taiwan and work together to create an "economic NATO" to counter China.
Truss suggested that G7 nations, members of the EU, South Korea, and Australia should join forces to "get things done," claiming that neither the UN Security Council nor the World Trade Organization are reliable to enforce international rules.
Anti-China narrative
It should be obvious to everyone right now that China cannot be trusted to follow the rules. Free and democratic nations must cooperate to protect Taiwan in the face of a PRC blockade or invasion as the future of the self-ruling island is intertwined with core Western values. Similar to the Ukraine War, the West has a collective responsibility to back Taiwan and hold Beijing accountable for its wrongdoing.
Pro-China narrative
This flagrant interference in China's domestic affairs has been a full-blown fiasco — both to the shortest-serving prime minister ever in the UK and to Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party authorities. Truss has become a troublemaker criticized even by her Conservative allies. Posturing as "getting tough with Beijing" can only aggravate internal problems in the West.
Nerd narrative
There is a 30% chance China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK, Netherlands Agree on 'International Coalition' for Ukraine Fighter Jets
The leaders of Britain and the Netherlands, Rishi Sunak and Mark Rutte, have agreed to build an "international coalition" to help Ukraine acquire F-16 fighter jets, the British government announced late on Tuesday.
A spokesperson for Sunak's office said the leaders "would work to build an international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capabilities, supporting with everything from training to procuring F-16 jets."
The announcement came after Sunak and Rutte met at a Council of Europe summit in Iceland on Tuesday.
Anti-Russia narrative
Russia is inflicting vast air superiority in the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine is to reclaim its territory and establish an effective missile defense strategy, it must be supplied with modern fighter jets to rival those of Russia.
Pro-Russia narrative
The more that Western countries provide Ukraine with weapons, the more that Russia considers them as direct participants in this conflict. The West's actions are not only dragging out this conflict but also leading to a serious risk of escalation.
Nerd narrative
There is a 70% chance that a NATO country will commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Maryland Signs New Laws on Concealed Carry, Handguns
In response to a US Supreme Court ruling last June that limited the power of states to restrict the concealed carrying of firearms, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat, signed into law Tuesday new restrictions on the concealed carry of firearms in the state and handgun licensing. The National Rifle Association (NRA) has already sued to block the law.
The law prohibits guns from being carried in schools, hospitals, government buildings, stadiums, and places where alcohol is served, as well as on private property without permission. It also removes the previous requirement of showing "good and substantial reason" to carry concealed guns outside of the home, language that was struck down by SCOTUS.
A separate measure amends the state procedure for issuing handgun licenses, raising the minimum age from 18 to 21, and prohibits individuals with substantial histories of mental illness and violent behavior, as well as those on probation or with protective orders against them, from applying for licenses.
Republican narrative
This is not a Maryland problem but rather a Baltimore problem. Despite the state's existing age restrictions on gun ownership, male juveniles have wreaked havoc on the city, making it one of the most dangerous in the country. Maryland also has some of the strictest background checks in the nation, but that, too, has not led to fewer crimes. The real issue here is violent young criminals. Taking guns away from law-abiding citizens won't do anything to stop that.
Democratic narrative
A conservative activist Supreme Court has expanded gun rights to an unprecedented extent, forcing states to try and find workable solutions to the gun crisis in the US. A torrent of legal cases in the wake of the Bruen ruling has upended gun control as we know it, undoing decades of progress on gun control amid an epidemic of violence and mass shootings. Maryland should be applauded for trying to find a path forward to keep Americans safe.
Report: Wealthy Nations Owe $13T in Climate Pledges
On Wednesday, the British nonprofit Oxfam said wealthy nations owe poorer nations $13T in development aid to combat the effects of climate change. Instead of paying the debt, wealthy nations are demanding these nations pay $232M per day in debt payments owed.
As the 2022 COP27 summit concluded, there was hope that there would be aid for poorer nations with the creation of a fund designed to help those nations suffering from climate change. No payments to the fund had been made by wealthier nations.
Following COP27, the president of the COP28 summit, Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber of the United Arab Emirates, urged the world to triple its commitments to clean energy, technology for transitioning to clean energy, and adaptation measures in developing nations by 2030. The current pledge, dating back to 2009 at COP15 is $100B.
Pro-establishment narrative
No government in the world has the funds to give developing countries full aid for their transition to clean energy and climate-friendly practices. The UN should be reaching out to development banks that use government funds to encourage economic growth instead. Those same institutions could provide loans that would reduce the risk to private investors. This is the most pragmatic approach the global community and international development system can likely take at the present time.
Establishment-critical narrative
Historically speaking, wealthy nations have raided foreign countries and exploited the land and the people for their own benefit. Those same nations are now responsible for the damage done in these countries and the damage done to the climate from their pillaging of the Earth. International distributive justice is the only path forward to rebuild the colonized and marginalized countries that are now being ravaged by the impacts of reckless actions and poor choices made by wealthy giants.
Study: 81% of 10-Year-Old South Africans Battle to Read
According to a study published Tuesday, which tested the reading ability of 400K students globally, 8 out of 10 10-year-old school children in South Africa struggle with reading comprehension.
The literacy of 9- and 10-year-old fourth graders in South Africa ranked last out of 57 countries assessed in the 2021 Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS), scoring 288 points compared with the international average of 500.
While South Africa's child literacy rate observed by the PIRLS in 2016 was 78%, the 2021 study shows that 81% of South African children struggle to read in any of the country's 11 official languages.
Narrative A
The negative and dire consequences of the pandemic erased a decade of progress in reading outcomes and put brakes on the government's program to improve primary education. In addition, unprecedented disruptions resulted in severe loss of teaching time for children at a crucial stage of their developmental journey.
Narrative B
It's unfair to blame COVID, as multiple factors — including a lack of textbooks and libraries, inadequate infrastructure, and significant inequality between black and white students — are responsible for the longstanding education crisis in South Africa. The country has also been marked by the poor education imposed on the majority black population, who are partly illiterate and find it challenging to help their children learn to read.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that South Africa's GDP per capita PPP will be at least 12.3K in 2030 (in constant 2017 USD), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
CIA Releases Video Recruiting Russian Spies
The CIA has reportedly released a professionally produced video to multiple social media platforms aimed at recruiting Russian citizens – specifically military officials, intelligence agents, diplomats, and scientists – to reveal information about their country’s economy and government.
The two-minute video — made in Russia and first published on Telegram on Monday — was also posted to YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter. It depicts fictional Russian officials covertly contacting the CIA via the agency’s secure portal on the dark web.
Captioned “Why I made contact with the CIA: My decision,” the video uses dramatic music and suspense to set the stage for a Russian official staring at a picture of his family before contacting the CIA. It also appeals to a strong Russian identity as the man contemplates, “Is it the kind of life I dreamt of?” combined with platitudes about heroism.
Pro-Russia narrative
The Russian people are far too smart to be persuaded by these dramatized videos that are part of the continued efforts of the US to spread propaganda in Russia. This campaign will not be effective, and Russia will keep taking the necessary steps to counteract US aggression.
Anti-Russia narrative
This CIA video is a brilliant appeal to truth and a plea for earnest Russians to follow their conscience. Many Russians know the war in Ukraine is wrong, and they face an internal struggle between so-called patriotism and yearning for peace. This video shows that a Russian can work with American intelligence agencies while being patriotic and working for a better future.
Narrative C
Besides the incredible double-standards of the US that schemes like this reveal, they're unlikely to have any success. Such a brazen plot not only risks scaring off some would-be informants who may be weary of a digital operation or suspect a Russian trap, but will also only spur Russia to ramp up its own counterintelligence efforts, making it harder to recruit assets.
North Carolina GOP Overrides Veto of 12-Week Abortion Ban
North Carolina’s Republican-controlled Generally Assembly on Tuesday voted to override Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of a bill that would ban most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, reduced from a prior 20-week restriction.
The ban applies to elective abortions except in the instance of rape, incest, life-limiting fetal anomalies, and medical emergencies in the first trimester. The law also includes funding for foster and childcare as well as paid parental leave.
The Care for Women, Children and Families Act passed the General Assembly earlier this month, but Cooper vetoed it Saturday. The state Senate voted 30-20, and the House voted 72-48 to override the veto.
Democratic narrative
This law is the latest blow struck by Republicans against women’s rights despite the unpopularity of the party’s abortion policies. With North Carolina serving as the last bastion of abortion access for many living in the region, women’s lives are now at greater risk, and many families will be put in precarious positions moving forward.
Republican narrative
These common-sense abortion regulations are baselessly being characterized as a threat to women's health. If it were up to Democrats, there would be no limits on abortions, but Republicans are making sure there are, and the ones that do happen are safer. Most abortions performed in the state are within the week limit anyway, so this law shouldn't be deemed "extreme," as the governor called it.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ecuador: Pres. Lasso Dissolves Congress, Calls for Elections
Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso on Wednesday announced the unprecedented triggering of a constitutional "mutual death" clause to dissolve the legislature and call for snap general elections, which will take place in the coming months.
Following the dissolution of the opposition-led National Assembly, Ecuador's influential confederation of Indigenous groups has deemed the order "dictatorial."
Ecuador's military, however, vowed not to tolerate violent unrest, recognizing the legitimacy of the move that will allow Lasso to govern the country by decree for up to six months until new elections are held.
Left narrative
Lasso has illegally prevented himself from being impeached in the coming days but, by doing so, he is offering a golden opportunity for the Ecuadorian people to vote him out of office, recover the country, and lower tensions. While he will be able to govern by decree for six months without the legislative checks and balances, the law does not allow Lasso to do anything he wants. This is an authoritarian move by Lasso, but there's a pathway toward a brighter future.
Right narrative
Despite claims that this is an illegal order, it was the radical leftist authoritarian Rafael Correa who enshrined Article 148, which requires only an executive order to trigger this move, in the constitution. This decree is justifiable as the opposition camp has long sought to drag Ecuador into a political crisis to depose the democratically elected government, fueling unrest and activating 14 impeachment trials.