US, Taiwan Reach Trade Pact
On Thursday, the US and Taiwan agreed to the first stage of a bilateral trade initiative, which was unveiled last June, marking their first official trade deal during the Biden admin., in a move that draws them closer amid mounting pressure from mainland China.
The initial agreement of the Initiative on 21st Century Trade covers customs and border procedures, regulatory practices, and small businesses. Negotiations on remaining, more complicated areas — including agriculture, labor and environmental standards, and digital trade — are still in progress.
While this trade deal doesn't require approval from Congress, there's broad bipartisan support in Washington for the self-ruling island that Beijing considers a renegade province, long demanding its reunification with the mainland.
Anti-China narrative
The signing of the trade agreement between the US and Taiwan signals Washington's strong support for the island's democracy, which is an important and strategic trading partner with the US. Beijing will surely complain about this announcement, but its words will fall on deaf ears in Washington as negotiations continue with Taiwan.
Pro-China narrative
Under the pretext of trade collaboration, Taiwan is colluding with foreign adversaries, with Washington's deepening ties with Taipei jeopardizing peace and stability in the region. The Chinese government has numerous times warned the US not to encourage the island to try to make its de facto independence permanent, a step that would lead to war. It's time that the US fully respects China's core interests.
Nerd narrative
There's a 6% chance that there will be an armed conflict between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Congress Report: FBI Revoked Whistleblower Clearances
The GOP-led House Judiciary Committee and Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government on Thursday released an interim report, stating that the FBI has been targeting conservative agents and retaliating against whistleblowers.
This comes as Marcus Allen and Steve Friend, who were both billed as whistleblowers by the committee, testified Thursday that they were retaliated against for critically thinking about the investigation into the events of Jan. 6, 2021.
The suspended staff operations specialist Allen and the former special agent Friend had their security clearances revoked this month, after denouncing the "politicized rot" within the bureau after being summoned to attend the subcommittee.
Republican narrative
As if politicizing federal institutions were not enough, the Biden admin. has now engaged in retaliating whistleblowers who dare to speak out against abuse and misconduct. Americans across the political spectrum must be worried about such governmental overreach, which oppressively silences those who challenge the official narrative to get to the truth and uphold the law. This undermines America's foundational system of justice.
Democratic narrative
Republicans have touted the so-called "FBI whistleblowers" as they are crucial assets of their partisan campaign to tackle the alleged federal government's weaponization — concealing the fact that some of them have received financial support from a top Trump ally. Given that the bureau has already explained that they were suspended for alleged misconduct, this report is promoting conspiracy theories and shows that the GOP is in fact the party weaponizing government.
Pentagon Says It Made $3B Accounting Error In Ukraine Weapons Shipments
The Pentagon said on Thursday that it had overestimated the value of weapons sent to Ukraine by at least $3B, meaning the Defense Dept. can ship more weapons to the country without asking Congress for additional funds.
The announcement came as existing military aid allocations to Ukraine were on the verge of running dry. Biden admin. officials were expected to face resistance from Congress in approving new packages, namely due to debate over the debt ceiling, as well as established calls from some Republicans to slash the military aid to Ukraine over spending concerns.
Pentagon officials said the error came due to officials using the cost of replacing a weapon rather than its current value, adding that the Pentagon often opted to send older weapons from existing stockpiles rather than new ones, because they could be delivered to Ukraine more quickly.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is excellent news for Ukraine's war effort. The US still has plenty of capacity to ensure Ukraine has the weapons it needs to fight off Russia and launch its counteroffensive, without facing the red tape of further approval from Congress.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite wishing the world to think it stands in solidarity with the Ukrainian cause, the US administration is expecting conflict with Russia to continue for years or even decades, as Kyiv will be very unlikely to deal a mortal blow to its enemy. The US has saved face internationally by encouraging the continuation of war, including by supplying Ukraine with weapons, when it knows that a negotiated settlement would be best for everyone. News of this accounting error will not benefit Ukraine, only spur on a deadly conflict without affecting its outcome.
Nerd narrative
There is a 21% chance that there will be a US-Russia war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Elderly Australian Taser Victim Passes Away
Clare Nowland, the 95-year-old woman who last week was tased by police at her Australian care home, has died. Police said she died “surrounded by family and loved ones.”
Kristian White, a senior police officer, has been suspended with pay and charged with recklessly causing grievous bodily harm, assault occasioning actual bodily harm, and common assault over the tasing. His court date is set for July 5, but his charges may change since Nowland died.
According to New South Wales (NSW) police guidelines, officers are only permitted to use a Taser on an elderly or disabled person in “exceptional circumstances.”
Narrative A
This case proves that police can no longer be the first-line option for those suffering from mental health crises. Government inquiries have found that those suffering from mental illness are too often criminalized, even in non-violent incidents, and this very sad encounter falls into that tragic category. Hopefully, this tragedy spurs action on a new and more humane path for dealing with mental health crises.
Narrative B
This incident and its aftermath have been traumatic for other officers, who work extremely hard to maintain the respect and trust of the people they serve. This call went wrong, but it was one of 2M made each year by officers who put themselves in danger and are overwhelmingly able to defuse most situations.
Disney Cancels Building of $1B Florida Facility
Amid its current battle with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Disney has decided to scrap plans to build a $1B office complex within the state.
Disney revealed the news via an internal email on Thursday, in which the company cited “changing business conditions,” with “considerable changes” to the environment they found themselves in when the plan was announced.
Two thousand people were to be employed at the facility, with many relocating from California to the proposed campus 18 miles east of Walt Disney World. Josh D’Amaro, head of Disney’s parks, wrote that the move was “not an easy decision” yet the “right one.”
Democratic narrative
The decision is a defensive move by Disney, and it's clear that $1B is now the price for DeSantis’ continued over-the-top war on so-called wokeness. Disney isn't perfect, but in standing up for its ability to speak its mind on state politics, it has dealt a clear economic and psychological blow to DeSantis as well as his 2024 aspirations.
Republican narrative
Disney has been badly losing its battle against DeSantis, and it will continue to do so. Not only does the corporation not have any moral ground to stand on, but it also lacks any legal argument to justify its defiance of state law. Disney is shamefully committed to indoctrinating children with inappropriate content. Its behavior should not be rewarded with undeserved corporate welfare.
Narrative C
While Disney finds itself in the middle of a culture war with DeSantis, this should be the least of its worries. The company is currently embroiled in turmoil concerning plunging cable and streaming subscriptions and box office revenue, all while laying off waves of employees. While DeSantis has added another battle for the company, there are currently more pressing issues at hand.
Nerd narrative
There's a 24% chance that Ron DeSantis will be President of the US by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: NYC Sinking Due to Skyscraper Weight
According to a report published in the journal Earth's Future, New York City is sinking approximately 1-2mm each year on average, with some parts sinking twice as fast, due to the weight of its high-rise buildings.
The gradual descent of the city, being pushed by New York's more than 1M buildings weighing nearly 1.7T pounds, makes the city extremely vulnerable to natural disasters, according to lead researcher and geologist Tom Parsons of the United States Geological Survey.
The report says that "New York is emblematic of growing coastal cities all over the world that are observed to be subsiding," adding that the combination of a dropping city and a rising sea increases future flood risks.
Narrative A
New York City has dealt with the effects of climate change and its subsequent natural disasters for years, and it's well past time the government takes the steps necessary to prevent further damage from storms like Hurricane Ida. The most important step would be to stop developing flood-prone areas in the first place and, after that, creating green spaces and replacing old, narrow drain pipes in already-developed areas will help absorb rainfall and pass it out into the ocean.
Narrative B
Immensely populated cities are one of the primary causes of climate change, but they can also be the solution. As the hubs of immigration, economic prosperity, and technological innovation, "megacities" have the opportunity to tap into the largest financial and talent pools in the world and engineer energy-efficient and walkable living spaces for everyone to enjoy. Climate change should be taken seriously, but it should be looked at through an optimistic lens regarding the potential for an urban future with smart design solutions.
Narrative C
New York City is not the prosperous land of opportunity it once was, climate change aside. Its overly-populated landscape is dirty and unlivable, and the fantasy of a vertical living paradise is quickly proving unrealistic. As more than a third of New York's population of 9M is now foreign-born, it's time to invest in those currently residing in the city and implement immigration policies to spread future immigrants to other parts of the country with lots of space. The Big Apple is a symbol of unwieldy urbanization.
Nerd narrative
There is a 48% chance that New York City will experience a hurricane by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Tennis Star Nadal to Miss French Open
Tennis star Rafael Nadal announced Thursday that a hip injury would keep him from competing in the 2023 French Open later this month, and he expects the 2024 tennis season to be his last.
Nadal, the defending French Open champion, has won the title a record 14 times at Roland Garros. This will be the first time he has missed the event since 2004.
Although Nadal — a holder of 22 major titles — started practicing in recent weeks, he was unable to get in the requisite tennis shape after not playing since he sustained a hip injury at the Australian Open in January.
Narrative A
Considering the litany of injuries Nadal has fought through during his prestigious career, everyone knew, eventually, his body would succumb and need something close to a permanent break. His unmatched determination carried him to this point, and he can’t be counted out, but it won't be a surprise if he's never seen competing on a pro tennis court again.
Narrative B
It’s Nadal’s career of overcoming physical impediments to achieve amazing results that should make everyone believe this isn’t the end of the road for the King of Clay. Someone so skilled, determined, and indefatigable should never be counted out, and it won’t be a surprise if he not only comes back to the tour but if he also wins titles and maybe even another French Open.
Lebanon Receives Interpol Notice for Central Bank Governor
Interpol issued a "Red Notice" for Lebanon’s central bank governor Riad Salameh on Wednesday, which the country’s interior ministry received the following day and forwarded to the judiciary. Salameh is accused of embezzling hundreds of millions of public funds, which he denies.
Lebanese Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi said he will abide by whatever the judiciary recommends while calling for Salameh to resign. Lebanon’s deputy Prime Minister echoed the same sentiment, and the country’s senior leaders will discuss the issue at a consultative cabinet meeting Monday.
The notice comes shortly after France issued an arrest warrant for Salameh as part of its investigation into embezzlement. Red Notices are sent to law enforcement agencies seeking the location and arrest of fugitives around the world.
Narrative A
Riad Salame is one of Lebanon’s most sinister actors and holds a massive amount of responsibility for Lebanon’s financial crisis. Touted as a “financial wizard” and steward of Lebanon’s economy, Salameh betrayed his duty by orchestrating a Ponzi scheme to enrich himself and his inner circle. The evidence against Salameh is overwhelming — there are too many shady deals and too much money missing for it to be a coincidence. Salameh is a corrupt criminal, and he must be held accountable.
Narrative B
Political adversaries in Lebanon and Europe are targeting Riad Salameh, trying to sow discord in Lebanon’s financial markets and create rampant speculation that will yield easy profits. Salameh has complied with judiciaries in Lebanon and abroad and continues to maintain his innocence, and the French warrant against him violates the provisions of a previous Lebanese-French agreement. He has provided extensive documentation and will appeal the illegitimate French warrant.
US Debt Ceiling Talks On 'Pause'
After both US Pres. Joe Biden and GOP leaders expressed optimism earlier this week, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) lead negotiator, Rep. Garrett Graves (R-La.), said Friday they've "decided to press pause" on debt-ceiling negotiations as "it's just not productive."
This comes as a source close to the talks had said both sides had reached an "impasse" on several issues, including work requirements for welfare, caps on future spending growth, and budget cuts.
McCarthy had been optimistic on Thursday, even saying he believed negotiators could reach a deal in principle as early as the weekend. On Friday, however, he and his deputies switched gears, claiming White House officials were refusing to compromise on spending cuts.
Republican narrative
Republicans are offering a very fair debt limit deal, one that distinguishes itself from past years of falsely promising to "balance the budget" in ten years. In exchange for raising the horrendously high debt by another $1.5T, all the GOP is asking for is that essential reforms be implemented. Rather than making serious efforts to negotiate, Biden is dangerously flirting with recycling the civil-war era 14th Amendment.
Democratic narrative
If Biden bypassed Congress to open the debt limit through the 14th Amendment, it doesn't mean he would become a budgetary tyrant, as only Congress can pass the budget. What it would mean is that once budget talks roll around, the GOP would be free to withhold funding and push for a government shutdown.
Nerd narrative
There's a 95% chance that the statutory debt limit will be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the US before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
G7 Summit Kicks Off in Hiroshima
The annual Group of 7 (G7) summit began Friday in Hiroshima, Japan as the seven leading countries — the US, UK, Japan, Canada, Germany, Italy, and France — along with multiple other nations convened to discuss global economic and political issues.
G7 countries have seen a reduction in their economic dominance in recent decades, leading Japanese Prime Minister Kishida to also invite Australia, India, Brazil, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Comoros (on behalf of the African Union), and the Cook Islands (representing the Pacific Islands Forum) to the gathering.
The war in Ukraine is a main topic of discussion and US Pres. Biden reaffirmed his continued support for Ukraine by committing to allow other nations to provide US-made F-16 jets to Kyiv and to train Ukrainian pilots on them, a deviation from the US' previous stance that Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy deemed a "historic decision." Zelenksyy also made a splash by announcing his surprise trip to the summit.
Pro-establishment narrative
The G7 summit offers an extremely important opportunity for leaders from some of the world’s most powerful democracies to come together and discuss major issues. In addition to the usual economic forces, leaders from other rising countries are attending this year’s event as threats from Russia and China mount. In the face of political and economic uncertainty, it is of the utmost importance that democracies worldwide unite to keep the world safe.
Establishment-critical narrative
Global elites cannot help themselves as they continue instigating Russia and China while thousands continue to die in the month war in Ukraine. While G7 leaders may pretend that they are promoting peace, their actions show that they are committed to unrestrained militarism. One would think holding the summit in Hiroshima would serve as a reminder of the devastation that nuclear war can bring, but the warmongers of the G7 — and the military-industrial complexes they uphold — are unphased.