Day 99 Roundup: 20% of Ukraine Under Russia Control, Russia Warns Western Weapons 'Adding Fuel to Fire'
In an address to Luxembourg's lawmakers, Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy on Thurs. said that 20% of Ukraine is now under Russian control, with the Donbas region "almost entirely destroyed."
This comes as Russian forces reportedly continue to tighten their grip of the Luhansk city of Severodonetsk, though regional Gov. Sergiy Gaidai on Thurs. said Ukraine has carried out some succesful counterattacks. Russia also continues to make incremental gains south of Izyum and west of Popasna, according to military analysts.
Russian missiles struck railroad infrastructure in the west of the Lviv region near Poland on Wed., reportedly a key transport link for Western weapons and fuel into Ukraine. Lviv Governor Maksym Kozytskyy said five people were injured. Three passenger trains were reportedly delayed, but later continued their journey.
Pro-establishment narrative
Making sure Ukraine continues to be well armed is the only way to fend off Putin and Russia in this unprovoked war of aggression. The US and NATO must not simply offer up their latest and most hi-tech weapons however – combat is about supply lines and the West must ensure basic equipment and ammunition are kept flowing as needed.
Establishment-critical narrative
Sending billions in weapons packages will make little difference to the outcome of the war. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and what we're witnessing is a geopolitical ponzi scheme to benefit those aligned with the military-industrial complex. War is a lucrative racket.
Nerd narrative
There is a 12% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
FBI: Iran Govt Hackers Targeted US Children's Hospital
At a cybersecurity conference on Wed., FBI Director Christopher Wray said that the FBI foiled a planned cyberattack on a children's hospital in Boston last year that was to have been carried out by Iranian-backed hackers.
US authorities reportedly received a report from an intelligence partner that the hospital was about to be targeted and acted immediately to inform the hospital and prevent the attack.
Wray alleged that Avadon, one of the most prolific ransomware variants in the world at the time, was going to be used in the attack, and the FBI managed to help patch other networks that were vulnerable.
Narrative A
Iran, as well as China and Russia, pose an existential threat to the US' critical infrastructure. There's no doubt that US enemies will use system vulnerabilities to engage in cyberwarfare and weaken the country from within. Steps must be taken to protect the US and strengthen its networks.
Narrative B
Though it may seem obvious that Iran, or any other geopolitical rival to the US, would be behind these types of attacks, determining the attribution of cyberattacks is incredibly difficult. Attribution is one of the core conundrums of cybersecurity, and, in certain circumstances, it can be essentially impossible to accurately determine who launched a cyberattack given the decentralized nature of how the cyberworld functions.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance that a cyberattack will directly cause one or more deaths in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Turkey Announces New Incursion Into Northern Syria
Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced on Wed. that Turkey would start a new operation in Syria targeting what it deems terrorists in Tel Rifaat and Manbij, two northern areas controlled by the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey sees as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Ankara seeks to impose a 30-km "safe zone" along its southern border with Syria, which will later be extended "to other regions," Erdoğan affirmed in a speech to lawmakers from the ruling AK Party.
His comments followed talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Mon. about Ankara's plans for a new cross-border incursion into northern Syria. Both leaders also discussed the war in Ukraine.
Narrative A
Turkey has every right to take action against YPG terrorists in order to defend its national security. Since the US, but also Russia, have failed to fulfill their commitments to create safe zones in northern Syria, Ankara must take decisive action to end the humanitarian tragedy in its own country.
Narrative B
Erdoğan, with his neo-Ottoman delusions, believes he has a free hand to invade northern Syria at the expense of the Kurds, simply because NATO depends on Turkey to support its position on Ukraine and the question of Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Under his autocratic leader, Turkey has become a disruptive element within the Alliance. The time has come to seriously discuss whether it should still be part of NATO.
Nerd narrative
There is an 89% chance that Turkey will continue to be a NATO member until January 1, 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UN Agrees to Change Turkey’s Official Name to ‘Türkiye’
On Wed., the UN confirmed a Turkish request to officially recognize the re-branding of the nation's name from "Turkey" to "Türkiye."
A spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres reportedly confirmed that the name change would take effect immediately from the receipt of a letter submitted by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.
The country adopted "Türkiye" in 1923 following its declaration of independence.
Narrative A
It's time to correct this mix-up of linguistic history. It's possible that European colonizers mistook New World turkeys for fowl imported through the Ottoman Empire, and residents of Türkiye have had to tolerate this unflattering association ever since. This is a dignified re-branding to properly reflect Türkiye as a country and a people on the world stage.
Narrative B
This is a move from Erdoğan to whip up nationalist fervor as he launches his re-election bid. The Turkish lira is plummeting in value, there is a simmering economic crisis, and Erdoğan has embarrassing failures with COVID and foreign policy. This is a political move to distract from the recent turmoil in Ankara.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Turkey's average inflation rate will be at least 20.1% between 2022 and 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Brooklyn Subway Shooting Victim Sues Gun Maker Glock
Brooklyn, NY resident Ilene Steur, 49, who was shot by accused gunman Frank James on Apr. 12, is suing gun manufacturing company Glock after one of their guns was allegedly used in the attack.
The suit accuses Glock of improperly marketing firearms with an emphasis on their high capacity, easy concealment, and other features that "appeal to purchasers with criminal intent."
It also claims that Glock doesn't train dealers to avoid illegal transactions and it refuses to end contracts with distributors whose guns frequently are linked to crime scenes.
Left narrative
The plainest way to impose a cost on the gun manufacturing industry is to repeal the irresponsible PLCAA and subject the industry to liability. This would begin to compel the firearms industry to bear actual, constant, and proportional costs of its reckless overproduction and marketing of guns.
Right narrative
Lawsuits and laws like this will drive the industry out of business, which has been the left's goal all along. It's not even true that the PLCAA gives the gun manufacturing industry immunity from lawsuits altogether. This couldn't be further from the truth, as, like car manufacturers, companies can be sued for selling a product that results in injury.
British Columbia to Decriminalize Some Drugs
Canada's western province of British Columbia (BC) is decriminalizing the possession of small amounts of illicit narcotics, including cocaine, MDMA, meth, heroin and fentanyl, in a bid to reduce deaths from overdoses.
This move comes as drug-related deaths have skyrocketed, with more than 2k people dying from overdoses last year.
Canada's federal government approved the policy that doesn't explicitly legalize drugs, but prevents arrests or charges in BC against anyone who possess up to 2.5 grams of illicit substances for personal use.
Progressive narrative
Decriminalization is a good step in addressing the drug crisis, but ultimately legalization may be the best option. Ending the drug war and making illicit substances available to the public will free up police resources to solve other crimes and perform other functions more necessary to public well-being than prosecuting drug crimes.
Narrative B
Though decriminalization may be an effective policy to manage the opioid epidemic, limits must be put in place, and full legalization must remain out of the question. If the US or Canada were to legalize drug use, it would only make the overdose crisis worse, as it would fuel consumption via corporate incentives to profit on users' inability to quit, much like the tobacco industry.
Conservative narrative
Drug decriminalization is a slippery slope that should be avoided. Of course, treatment is an important aspect to dealing with the opioid epidemic, but users must be held accountable for their actions. Drug use is not a victimless crime, as the purchase of illicit substances fuels violence across the world and leads to negative social outcomes.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least 60 countries will decriminalize in some form the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Elon Musk Bans Remote Work at Tesla & SpaceX
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk reportedly sent an email to employees on Tues. stating that they must spend a minimum of 40 hours a week in the office.
In his email to Tesla workers, Musk stated "If you don't show up, we will assume you have resigned." Musk sent a similar message to his SpaceX employees with the subject line "Remote work is no longer acceptable."
Musk noted that he would personally approve exemptions to work remotely for "particularly exceptional contributors," but he didn't elaborate on who might qualify.
Narrative A
Working from home and hybrid work will be the organizational legacy of COVID. Only 4% of employers advocate forcing employees to return to the office full-time. As employees have gained the upper hand in a tight labor market, employers like Musk who demand a full return to the office will only fuel the Great Resignation.
Narrative B
With Tesla facing stiff competition from other auto manufacturers, Musk knows that the best innovation occurs in face-to-face meetings. His policy also ensures that only the most loyal of employees choose to remain on the team. Developing an in-person company culture has meaningful effects on employee retention, and Musk is getting ahead of the curve.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Tesla's market capitalization will be at least 1.6 trillion USD (about twice its current value) by January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Education Dept. to Cancel $5.8B in Debt for Students of Corinthian Colleges
On Wed., the US Dept. of Education ("ED") made its largest student loan forgiveness action ever, saying it will wipe out $5.8B in college loan debt owed by some 560K borrowers who attended Corinthian Colleges (CC). CC was one of the nation's largest for-profit college chains before it collapsed in 2015.
Thousands of former students were already eligible for debt cancellation but had to navigate a process advocates say is confusing. Those who have a remaining balance on their debt will receive a refund on payments already made, but those who already paid it back aren't eligible.
After a 2014 investigation found that CC and its 105 campuses misled students by inflating their job placement rates, ED began withholding federal loans, forcing CC to close.
Republican narrative
Elected officials should show some restraint in encouraging people to walk away from their college loans. Buying college voters with promises of loan forgiveness or free college is no way to teach the fiscal discipline or responsibilities that college graduates should possess. This is unfair to taxpayers.
Democratic narrative
Today, most likely voters support student debt cancellation, even those who don't have student debt themselves. If Biden honors his campaign promise with a measure of student debt cancellation in the coming weeks, then a burden will be lifted from millions of hard-working Americans.
Nerd narrative
There is a 45% chance that the US government will forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Buffalo Shooting Suspect Charged With Domestic Terrorism
Payton Gendron, the suspect accused of carrying out a racist mass shooting that killed 10 people at a Buffalo supermarket in a mostly Black neighborhood last month, will face 26 federal hate crime charges, according to a criminal complaint filed by US prosecutors Wednesday.
Prosecutors accused Gendron, who allegedly used an AR-15 style rifle, of carrying out the shooting "to prevent Black people from replacing white people and eliminating the white race." Much of his alleged motive was spelled out in an online manifesto.
The complaint also revealed Gendron left a note for his parents on the day of the attack detailing that he cared "for the future of the white race."
Left narrative
The shooter saw himself as a soldier in a culture war that's been fostered by right-wing media and other figures on the Right that parrot claims related to "replacement theory." Now he's being rightly charged for his crimes.
Right narrative
Public evidence suggests the shooter was driven by "replacement theory" and his attack qualifies as a hate crime. But attempts to tie his blatant racism to conservatives' unrelated concerns about the Left's loose immigration policy is a shameless attempt to siphon voters away using hyperbole and false accusations.
Biden Lifts Trump-Era Flight Restrictions to Cuba
The US Transportation Dept. has lifted travel restrictions to Cuba that were created during the Trump admin. preventing flights from the US to cities other than Havana.
Sec. of State Antony Blinken wrote a letter Tues. urging the department to revoke the restrictions "in support of the Cuban people and in the foreign policy interests" of the US. The agency followed through on the request on Wednesday.
The Trump admin. imposed several travel restrictions on Cuba in 2019 and 2020 because, as then Sec. of State Mike Pompeo alleged, Cuba "uses tourism and travel funds to finance its abuses and interference in Venezuela."
Democratic narrative
Trump's policies were harsh and hurt regular people. Although there's still work to be done to thaw relations for the sake of Cubans at home and in the US, the administration is moving in the right direction to provide cash and goods for families suffering under the Cuban regime.
Republican narrative
Trump's policies were necessary after Obama's engagement with the regime made it wealthier, more repressive against its own people, and more emboldened to support terror elsewhere. If Biden brings the US back to that, the only winner will be the dictatorship in Cuba.
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