Jury Acquits Clinton Campaign Lawyer Accused of Lying to FBI
After deliberating for six hours over two days, a jury in Washington DC on Tues. acquitted Michael Sussmann – the lawyer for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign – who stood accused of lying to the FBI in the run up to the 2016 election.
Sussmann, then a cybersecurity attorney at Perkins Coie, was accused of deliberately misleading the agency during a meeting on Sept. 19 with then-FBI general counsel James Baker.
In the meeting, Sussmann handed the agency USB drives which purported to show suspicious links between then-candidate Donald Trump and the Russian entity Alfa Bank. The agency investigated the data and later concluded it contained no evidence of wrongdoing.
Democratic narrative
After three years of investigation, Durham was only able to bring a thin charge against Sussmann. This acquittal calls into question how long Durham can continue in this politically motivated probe that's fishing to prove right-wing, Trump-related conspiracy theories.
Republican narrative
Just because a largely Democrat-leaning jury pool acquitted one of their own doesn't mean that this probe is at an end. The trial showcased evidence that Clinton was directly involved in an attempt to disseminate false information about Trump prior to the election and more cases are on the way.
Nerd narrative
There's a 2% chance that Hillary Clinton will run for President of the United States in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel Signs Free Trade Agreement with UAE
Israel and the UAE signed a comprehensive free trade agreement (FTA) on Tues. that will remove tariffs on 96% of goods.
It's the first-ever FTA that Israel has struck with an Arab state and the fastest to be signed in Israel's history. This deal is also among Israel's broadest FTAs, alongside those with the US and the EU.
The agreement comes less than two years after the two countries normalized relations in a US-brokered deal. Trade between Israel and the UAE has reached roughly $2.5B over the last two years, more than $1B of which was reached in the first quarter of 2022.
Pro-Palestine narrative
This new act of treason comes mere days after the provocative and humiliating "flag march" by Israeli settlers. It's clearer than ever that the normalization of the state of Israel and Israeli politics won't benefit Palestinians. Those who engage in it have no regard for their Arab brothers.
Pro-Israel narrative
The comprehensive FTA will boost economic and technological development in the region. Moreover, it will demonstrate that dialogue and cooperation between nations can deliver better responses to challenges. This benefits all in the region, including Palestinians.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least seven Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel by 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: SCOTUS Clerk Phone Records Requested as Leak Investigation Intensifies
US Supreme Court officials are escalating their search for the source of the leaked draft opinion of Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health, and are reportedly taking steps to require clerks to provide cellphone records and sign affidavits.
On May 3, Chief Justice Roberts ordered the court's marshal, Gail Curley, whose usual job is to oversee the building's police officers, to lead the probe.
Many clerks are now reportedly contemplating seeking outside counsel over the newly initiated requirements, something, according to one appellate lawyer, "any similarly situated individual would do in virtually any other government investigation."
Republican narrative
The unprecedented leak was an attempt to severely damage the Supreme Court. This campaign was clearly coordinated to intimidate and obstruct the Court's Justices and the independence of the Court itself. Those involved must be held accountable.
Democratic narrative
There is an inescapable irony to the fact that SCOTUS clerks might be forced to litigate for privacy rights over a leaked decision undermining the privacy rights of women across the US. There's no doubt that the anonymity of the leaker is fostering an environment of hostility and suspicion in the Court, but more important is the threat to reproductive decisions the leak has revealed.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90% chance that Roe v. Wade will be overturned before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 98 Roundup: Ukrainian Forces Largely Withdraw from Severodonetsk; US, Germany to Send More Weapons to Ukraine
Ukrainian forces have reportedly largely withdrawn from the Luhansk city of Severodonetsk, with the city's mayor Oleksandr Stryukr on Wed. saying they control only 20%. Russian forces control 60%, with the remainder being "no-man's land," according to Stryukr.
If Russian forces fully capture Severodonetsk, neighboring Lysychansk will be the only urban area of any size in Luhansk to remain under Ukrainian control.
Meanwhile, Kharkiv's regional gov. said on Wed. that four civilians had died in the oblast in the last 24 hours due to Russian shelling. Additionally, UNICEF said that at least 262 children have been killed and another 415 have been hurt since the beginning of the war.
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 99% chance that at least 25k Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian war before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Iran Has Enough Uranium to Build Atomic Bomb
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has released a report saying that Iran has accumulated enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb. In a separate report, they also stated that Iran has failed to provide credible explanations regarding nuclear material found at several sites in recent years.
The report indicates that Iran has stockpiled more than 18 times the limit of enriched uranium set out in the now-defunct nuclear deal signed in 2015, which forbade Iran from exceeding 300kg of a specific compound, translating to roughly 203kg of uranium.
The IAEA estimated that Iran possessed a total enriched stockpile of 3,809.3kg on May 15, and is exceeding the 3.67% limit to which it's allowed to enrich uranium.
Pro-establishment narrative
Iran is playing with fire. The trove of documents presented by Israel prove that Iran has consistently lied to the international community regarding its nuclear program. Swift action must be undertaken to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon.
Establishment-critical narrative
The IAEA report is extremely biased against Iran, and Israel has been putting pressure on the agency to hold a hardline stance against the Islamic Republic. Furthermore, it was the US that pulled out of the nuclear deal, not Iran, and Iran is under no obligation to follow it until a new deal is put into place.
Nerd narrative
There is a 45% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
SCOTUS Issues Stay on Counting Undated PA Mail-In Ballots
Justice Samuel Alito granted an administrative stay on Tues. halting the counting of mail-in ballots without dates in Pennsylvania. The state's GOP Senate primary is currently being recounted as Dr. Mehmet Oz and businessman David McCormick were separated by less than 1K votes.
Alito's order temporarily blocks a unanimous decision of a three-judge panel of the US Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit, which ruled that mail-in votes without a handwritten date should be counted in a local judge's race in Lehigh County.
Although PA state law requires mail-in ballots to be filled out, dated and signed, the appeals court applied a provision of the Civil Rights Act, which states votes should be counted, even if they contain minor errors unrelated to voter eligibility, including leaving off the date.
Republican narrative
Protecting election integrity is of the utmost importance and rules can't be changed in the midst of votes being counted. Counting undated mail-in ballots is clearly in violation of state law and previous court rulings, so they should be disqualified.
Democratic narrative
Amazingly, when a Republican is behind in a tight election he suddenly sees the value of mail-in ballots. The Republicans vilified mail-in voting when it didn't go their way in 2020, so it's rich to watch in-fighting over the matter in the party.
Global Stocks Slip Amidst Surging Oil Prices, Inflation Fears, and Rising Interest Rates
Global stock markets turned negative on Tues. as oil prices surged, exacerbating fears that inflation and interest rates might rise further.
News that the EU had moved to ban oil imports from Russia signaled additional constraints on already tightened global energy markets, which could send consumer prices even higher.
US stocks slipped after last week's rally as rising oil prices triggered fears of worsening inflation.
Democratic narrative
The global economy is facing a great deal of uncertainty, but the worst outcomes can still be easily avoided in the US if consumers keep spending. The return of high levels of income inequality is a troubling sign for average Americans, but as long as wealthy and middle class consumers continue to spend, the US will be fine.
Republican narrative
Energy is the heart of the US economy and is the core of a healthy global economy, but Biden has cracked down on energy producers with heavy regulations. If Biden would simply lift his foot off their necks, America would be one step closer to restoring growth and prosperity.
Nerd narrative
There is a 77% chance that the US will enter a recession before Jan. 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hurricane Agatha Breaks Record in Deadly Mexico Landfall
11 people are reported dead and 20 missing in the aftermath of Hurricane Agatha's landfall in Oaxaca, Mexico. Agatha is now the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the month of May during the Eastern Pacific hurricane season.
Agatha came ashore Mon. night as a Category 2 hurricane. Gov. Alejandro Murat said rivers overflowed their banks and swept away people in their homes, while other victims were buried under mud and rocks.
The storm's winds reached 105 mph. Residents living in the mountains were hardest hit and now face power outages, damaged roads, and destroyed homes.
Narrative A
This is but the latest tragic result of climate change. As with other similar explosive hurricanes, unusually warm waters - catalyzed by human-caused climate change - fueled the storm's rapid intensification before its deadly landfall. Global warming must be addressed now, or storms like this will only become more frequent.
Narrative B
It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.
Nerd narrative
There is a 48% chance that New York City will experience a hurricane by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Denmark Approves Accession to EU Defense Policy
In a referendum held in Denmark on Wed., Danes backed an end to a 30-year-old "opt-out" from the EU's shared defense policy.
It was favored in all 92 Danish voting districts, receiving 66.9% of the votes across the country - a record figure for an EU referendum in Denmark.
This comes as European countries look to deepen defense ties in reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, including Finland and Sweden applying to join NATO in a historic shift of their policies.
Establishment-critical narrative
Danes are understandably Euroskeptic. As a consequence of this approval, Denmark might be entering into a slippery slope with a potential loss of sovereignty, as EU security plans are still unclear and include the possibility of a European army parallel to NATO.
Pro-establishment narrative
Scrapping the defense waiver is the right choice for Denmark. Europe must be united and prepared to defend itself from authoritarian threats. While NATO is crucial to Europe's security, European countries must be able to provide quick responses in areas of their interest to protect democracy and freedom.
Nerd narrative
There is a 31% chance that there will be a European Army before 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DOJ Asks Fed. Court to Overturn Order that Lifts Mask Mandate
In a 48-page document filed in the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, the Justice Department (DOJ) argued that previous orders issued by the CDC requiring masks on public transit in early 2021 "falls easily within the CDC's statutory authority."
Last month, FL Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, a Trump appointee, ruled that the government's mask mandate for public transportation was unlawful.
In her ruling, Mizelle argued that the mandate violates the Administrative Procedures Act (APA) because the agency failed to prove its decision to implement the mandate.
Right narrative
There's been no presentation of data showing any increase in infections from air travel since the mandate was lifted more than a month ago. As the Biden Admin. appeals this decision, even the liberal-leaning New York Times is telling its readers that masks haven't been effective in slowing the spread of COVID.
Left narrative
Wearing masks on airplanes and other modes of transit can help keep everyone safe. Vaccination rates and COVID new cases vary widely between regions of the US and between countries. This is about protecting vulnerable populations.
Nerd narrative
There is a 15% chance that there will be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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