Left narrative

Despite criticisms that a windfall tax is "economically illiterate," the reality is that it's economically sensible a huge spike in oil and gas prices is being passed on to UK consumers, with those on low incomes catastrophically hit, while oil giants profit. Taxing some of these profits to provide relief to low-income energy bill payers is the right move to rebalance the costs and benefits.

Right narrative

At best, the new package will provide nothing more than temporary relief that fails to address global supply shocks and other systemic issues. At worst, it will discourage investment in the UK, result in greater reliance on foreign energy sources which will lead to higher consumer prices, and diminish company shareholder's profits - including the very pensioners Sunak claims he wants to help.

Narrative C

The chancellor's windfall tax is a swing and a miss that fails to tackle the cost of living crisis and the climate emergency together. The tax relief stipulation means that oil giants can largely escape taxation by reinvesting their profits in what will most likely be oil and gas infrastructure. This will incentivize further oil and gas production and fail to boost clean energy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the average inflation rate in the UK will be no more than 7.33% in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Blinken's speech was a strong statement of where the US stands in terms of China's threat to the world order. His focus on not igniting another Cold War was a critical aspect of his address, and he charted a solid path for both working with, but also competing against, China.

Republican narrative

Blinken's speech was just another example of Biden admin. officials having to deal with the blowback of Biden's constant gaffes. Though the US has a clear commitment to Taiwan, Biden's remarks only incited trouble and were simply not productive.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US is playing political games. Blinken's long-awaited speech was unexciting, showcasing the US' hypocrisy when it comes to China and global affairs. Though Blinken sought to portray China as some sort of global rule-breaker, it's the US that has spent the last 30 years, if not longer, trampling the international order and bullying smaller and weaker nations.

Pro-establishment narrative

As the war shifts to the strategically important Donbas regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, the US and its allies need to continue to do everything in their power to arm Ukraine with all the weapons they need. Doing so is the only way to push Putin's forces back as was done in Kyiv.

Pro-Russia narrative

As stated by Putin, the whole purpose of the war was never to invade Kyiv, but to liberate the ethnically Russian people of Donetsk and Luhansk, who have been subjected to systematic killing by Ukrainian forces for not recognizing the 2014 coup in Kyiv. This tragedy would have been avoided if NATO had kept its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification.

Nerd narrative

There is an 10% chance that Russia will formally announce that a state of war exists between it and Ukraine by August 1, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

The walls are closing in on the former President, and though he and his lawyers have fought tooth and nail against this investigation, James continues to make progress. Trump may soon be held accountable for his shady business practices.

Pro-Trump narrative

The AG is letting her political biases get the best of her. James, a Democrat, is only pursuing the investigation out of political animus. Trump and his family have largely complied with the investigation and have handed over all the relevant documents they could.

Narrative C

Trump is in a tricky situation. He can still appeal to NY's Court of Appeals, although it's not clear whether that court would agree to hear the case. If Trump pleads the 5th amendment under questioning, it could hurt his case, given that it's a civil inquiry. On the other hand, if Trump does answer James' questions, he could possibly incriminate himself in other criminal cases.

Establishment-critical narrative

At best, the focus on seizing Russian billionaires' assets is a distraction from formulating a more realistic strategy to defeat Putin and restore Ukraine. At worst, it's evidence of clear hypocrisy, given the US wasn't sanctioned for invading Iraq for equally unjustified reasons. Either way, this doesn't help Ukraine.

Pro-establishment narrative

Seizing Russian assets, including those belonging to sanctioned individuals, is crucial for escalating economic pressure on the Kremlin. If the Western countries can navigate the legal complications, the assets should be transferred to Ukraine to help fund its defense and rebuild the nation.

Libertarian narrative

Targeting individuals based only on their nationality is unfair and risks leading to widespread Russophobia. This is cancel culture stigmatizing an entire population for the crimes of one autocrat.

Narrative A

It's essential that the international community addresses the climate crisis as soon as possible. Science continues to affirm that if climate change isn't dealt with now, catastrophe could soon be on the horizon. This is a good time to start these discussions, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has heightened the world's focus on gas and energy alternatives

Narrative B

Renewables and fossil fuel reductions are important, but the world isn't ready yet. Nations are trying to pivot to green energy, but weather and COVID surged demand and fossil fuels must now make up for what renewables can't deliver. We are necessarily still reliant on non-renewable forms of energy, while renewable energy infrastructure is still being developed.

Nerd narrative

There's an 85% chance there will be at least 2˚C degrees of global warming by 2100 according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Dorsey and Musk have similar views on how Twitter should operate. This is why Dorsey has left the company in Musk's hands and believes him to be the "singular solution."

Narrative B

Dorsey has now entrusted Twitter, which used to be his prized endeavor, to the fickle and reckless Musk. Although the two seem to share a similar vision for the company, it remains to be seen whether Dorsey will regret his decision to entrust Musk with the "public square" that he helped to pioneer.

Nerd narrative

There is a 99% chance that Twitter will agree to be taken private by Elon Musk on December 31, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

There's no doubt that Israeli forces deliberately killed Akleh. She was hundreds of meters away from any armed clashes, Israeli snipers were present in the area, and several witnesses said that they had fired at her team. Akleh's killing is a heinous crime and clearly violates international laws and norms. Israel must be held accountable.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though the death of Akleh is tragic, critics of Israel are always quick to jump to conclusions about events in the West Bank. Jenin is a well-known hotbed of terrorist activity, and no one can know who killed Akleh until the Palestinians hand over the evidence to Israeli authorities.

Nerd narrative

There is an 8% chance that Israel and Palestine will hold peace talks in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Holding a convention celebrating guns in the wake of a tragic mass shooting is inappropriate and cruel. Unfortunately, the GOP not only relies on the gun lobby for financing, but also uses it to push its agenda, and cultivate its next generation of Republican celebrities.

Republican narrative

With yet another tragedy sparking a partisan battle over gun rights, carrying on with the event offers an important opportunity for figures like Trump to address the masses and focus on real solutions that Americans can embrace to prevent future tragedy.

Cynical narrative

Abbott, who's running for re-election, is trying to make sure this tragedy doesn't hurt his political chances. He's attempting to have it both ways by visiting Uvalde but also sending a video message to the NRA convention after he was criticized for attending a fundraiser not long after the shooting.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that the Second Amendment, as written and in force on December 13th, 2018, will be successfully amended or repealed before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Jim Jordan sure has changed his tune. Last summer, the Ohio Rep. declared "If they call me, I got nothing to hide," but then clammed up when the committee asked for his cooperation. Now, subpoena in hand, Mr. "I got nothing to hide" seems very reluctant to answer questions about his connections to the attack and his conversations with the former president.

Republican narrative

As the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, Jordan is perfectly within his rights to question the validity, constitutionality, and legislative purpose behind the subpoenas, which were issued by a partisan ad-hoc House Committee that has altered and publicly misrepresented nonpublic information about GOP lawmakers.

Cynical narrative

There's a tried and true playbook for fighting Congressional subpoenas fight, appeal, delay. It's will now come to the rescue of Jordan and former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. Time is not on the side of the Jan. 6 Committee.