Establishment-critical narrative

Greece and the US have both carried out acts of piracy by breaking maritime laws to impound the Iranian oil tanker and its cargo. Both countries must be held responsible for such violations as Iran won't renounce its rights.

Pro-establishment narrative

The seizure of Lana was lawful as both the Russian-owned ship and its Iranian oil cargo are under US sanctions. Furthermore, the oil tanker has a checkered history typical of vessels operating in the shadows, including several changes in its name, ownership and banner over the years.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that the US will rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This shows that the trafficking of antiquities is not exclusive to terror groups and organized crime networks. Witting and unwitting collectors, auction houses, and art facilities all contribute to this theft. This is why all of civil society including businesses, governments, and international organizations must mobilize to protect our past.

Narrative B

Despite criticisms, temporary safe havens for endangered cultural objects are needed in some situations, particularly for artifacts in countries faced with conflict and instability. The practice actually helps address the problem of art theft - an atrocious act that leaves gaping holes in the material cultural heritage of poor peoples and fragile states.

Right narrative

Kapler's decision symbolizes America's recent decline. In 1976, Cubs outfielder Rick Monday boldly snatched an American flag away from two protestors who ran on the field to set it on fire. Now, in 2022, Kapler is advocating for a disarmed citizenry - on Memorial Day weekend, no less. Kapler's woke moral outrage is self-serving and self-congratulatory.

Left narrative

This is what patriotism looks like. Kapler knows his single act of protest isn't going to change the minds of millions of Americans on gun control, but if more people followed his example we might actually have a chance to solve this urgent issue. Kapler's actions are a reminder that the country has a lot of deep work to do.

Anti-Russia narrative

This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

Pro-Russia narrative

NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia by September 13, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

China has every right to build new partnerships in the Pacific, including in the area of security. It's the US that already boasts several military bases in the region, and the Quad Alliance puts Beijing further on the spot. The Pacific nations not wanting to be made the pawns of geopolitical interests is understandable, but it's the West that's responsible for this. And unlike Washington and its allies, China is aiming to score mainly through trade.

Anti-China narrative

By continuing to grow in military and economic strength, China poses an even greater threat to the rules-based world order and universal values than Russia. This makes it all the more necessary now to rein in Beijing's all-too-obvious plan to expand its military footprint and sphere of influence in the Pacific. Now is the time for Washington and its allies to act decisively but with strategic prudence to defend the open and inclusive international system.

Establishment-critical narrative

Pacific Island nations have every right to play both sides. The current security situation in the South Pacific makes it possible for less influential countries to benefit from the angst of regional powers. The Solomon Islands and its neighbors can leverage this to maximize aid from both China and the West.

Cynical narrative

None of the powers with an eye on Oceania - including the US, Australia, New Zealand, China, and Japan - are taking the true security concerns of the Pacific Islands seriously. The region is threatened by severe climate impacts, but these powers are more concerned with their own self interests. The security and future of the Pacific must be determined by Pacific Island countries on their own.

Narrative A

Despite the Twitter board's vows to hold Musk to the $44B price, a lot has changed in the past month to lower the price of tech stocks. Musk isn't going to be fooled into overpaying in this deal, and the bot issue will ultimately help him close for a lower price.

Narrative B

Musk's latest stunts potentially netted him millions at the cost of other investors. He has a history of disregarding SEC regulations, and then turning the tables and accusing the agency of subjecting him to unfounded investigations. These shenanigans must be regulated, and he must be held accountable.

Nerd narrative

There is a 99% chance that Twitter will agree to be taken private by Elon Musk on December 31, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The parents and children of Uvalde were utterly failed by authorities. Every second counts in shooter situations, and the delayed response by police almost certainly cost lives. Police conduct during the response - which ran contrary to well-established active shooter protocol - demands scrutiny and accountability.

Narrative B

While the police's actions were clearly a botched incident response, there is no statute that holds them liable for the deaths. This wasn't a matter of bad policy that needs reforming; it was a simple case of the chief of police making an incorrect assessment about the shooter, leading to incorrect tactics being followed. While the consequences were tragic, there was no intentional deprivation of civil rights.

Pro-Trump narrative

James is doing everything in her power to interfere with Trump's business dealings and harm his reputation. There is no case here. She is simply attacking Trump to further her own political career.

Democratic narrative

Trump's baseless legal challenges will not stop James' lawful investigation into his organization's financial dealings. No one can pick and choose how the law applies to them, and Trump is no exception.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The Israeli flag march, which has become an annual event for Zionist extremists, is a supremacist demonstration aimed at provoking Palestinians and asserting control. Settlers and ultra-nationalists use the day to desecrate Muslim holy sites and attack Palestinian residents; all under the protection of the Israeli police.

Pro-Israel narrative

The flag march isn't about provoking Palestinians or stirring hate; it's a longstanding tradition of pilgrimage and a celebration of love for Jerusalem. Just because it has been politicized by a few groups inciting hate - which Israel has condemned and is rightly cracking down on - doesn't mean the whole tradition, which is largely peaceful, should be tainted.

Nerd narrative

There's an 8% chance that Israel and Palestine will hold peace talks in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This tragedy is sadly but the latest in Nepal's poor record with aviation safety. There are shortfalls in investments in plane manufacturing and infrastructure, and the government doesn't regulate their airlines strictly enough. In 2013, the European Union banned all Nepal-based airlines from flying in its airspace over these concerns.

Narrative B

The Nepali government's regulation of its airlines may not be perfect, but Nepal also has some of the world's most remote and tricky runways, flanked by snow-capped peaks with approaches that pose a challenge for even accomplished pilots. Conditions were extremely challenging when this catastrophe occurred.

Left narrative

Gun violence and culture in America is completely out of control and innocent victims are suffering the consequences. The Uvalde tragedy could easily have been avoided with better gun control. Yes, the year-old should be punished for making threats but, ultimately, arresting children for text messages won't solve the mess made by lawmakers.

Right narrative

The truth on gun control is that if the government takes firearms away from citizens, only criminals will have them. We don't need a totalitarian solution - instead, police need to act swiftly and strongly to respond, especially in today's climate of mass violence, and threats to schools.

Anti-China narrative

Despite the warnings set out by the Biden admin, Bachelet has allowed her visit to be turned into a propaganda win for the Chinese Communist Party. She grotesquely praised their "tremendous achievements" in human rights in relation to poverty and failed to clearly condemn ongoing government-led repression and genocide. The UN must do more to tackle human rights abuses in China or risk becoming complicit.

Pro-China narrative

While anti-China forces continue attempting to pin fabricated allegations of "genocide" on Beijing, Bachelet has concluded an open and successful visit, the first of a UN Human Rights High Commissioner to China for 17 years. Blatant attempts to smear China carry on, as the US ignores the real purpose of Bachelet's trip and attempts to turn the UN into its puppet.

Establishment-critical narrative

Genocide accusations against China all originate from a single source a German right-wing religious extremist, Adrian Zenz, affiliated with shady neoconservative think tanks. A careful review of Zenz's so-called evidence in the past has revealed flagrant data abuse and outright fabrications.

Nerd narrative

There is a 25% chance that the UN will open an investigation into the issue of Xinjiang internment camps by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.